Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in first week?

$201,651 Vol.

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

RESULT

China
$64,637 Vol.
No

Canada
$65,166 Vol.
No

Mexico
$30,315 Vol.
No

European Union
$15,895 Vol.
No

Japan
$18,723 Vol.
No

United Kingdom
$6,916 Vol.
No

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on People's Republic of China by January 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Volume

$201,651

End Date

Jan 27, 2025

Resolver

0x6A9D222616...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

ohwell

7mo ago

resolve?

NoNoiseKnifeOnly

7mo ago

Colombia..... lol?

worldEventer

7mo ago

so unpredictable it wasn't even a bet

Toncar16

7mo ago

"President-elect Donald Trump is planning to issue a broad memorandum Monday that directs federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China and America’s continental neighbors, but stops short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office, as many trading partners feared." the revision of the section 232 tariffs will take months

Toncar16

7mo ago

TRUMP TO LAY OUT TRADE VISION BUT WON'T IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS YET - WSJ.

Toncar16

7mo ago

https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1881333779379458211?s=46&t=CzwD3Yh9Y4W1p3-K8Ga-pw

Seloeded

7mo ago

Canada announcing tariffs in response to expected US tariffs: https://www.cpac.ca/en

Seloeded

7mo ago

https://x.com/ColinDMello/status/1879237548230451246

Seloeded

7mo ago

https://x.com/trumpwarroom/status/1879206914955055500?s=46

Seloeded

7mo ago

Donald Trump just announced he is creating a new branch of the public service to collect foreign tariffs. This can be read as Trump treating tariffs as a replacement to domestic tax revenues. In other words, these tariffs are an end and not a means. Trump creating a new branch of the public service (growing government which is antithetical to conservatism) should be interpreted as an extreme sign he is serious about tariffs. Canada and Mexico are first on the chopping block.

Molodyets

7mo ago

Uh oh - known reverse whale (back-in-whack) on the Yes side of China tarrifs. Maybe time to sell :(

emaminek

7mo ago

would a global tariff resolve all the markets to yes, or not count towards resolution?

Toncar16

7mo ago

No, I think that's the whole point of this market. If Trump imposes tariffs on steel (as he quickly did during his first term) and it affects all producing countries, it doesn't count for the rules. He has to specifically target one country.

Toncar16

7mo ago

@Toncar16

When I say quickly, we're talking about a year, in any case it won't pass.

qqqsss111

7mo ago

he will but not in the first week, he needs to stop wars first.

emaminek

7mo ago

some people really think trump is superman

Toncar16

7mo ago