Nigel Farage’s Reform would scoop 120 seats at the next election, while Labour would see the number of MPs plummet to 278, a major constituency-by-constituency breakdown of voters suggests.
Although the next general election is still several years away, the findings show the risks to the Prime Minister if the Government is unable to implement a successful illegal immigration strategy.
The mega-poll has been compiled by political strategy firm Stonehaven, which produced the most accurate seat-by-seat projection during the 2024 general election, and shared exclusively with The i Paper.
The firm’s modelling finds that swathes of Labour’s so-called “hero voters” – those who switched from the Tories or voted for Labour for the first time – are open to switching to Reform UK, with immigration cited as the number one reason behind their shift in allegiances.
It uses a form of polling which typically surveys a lot more voters, known as ‘multilevel regression with post-stratification’ (MRP).
Stonehaven’s model was created from survey data of 17,000 people since the general election, with the latest figures taken in December.
It comes just days after a separate MRP poll by the think tank More in Common showed Reform was on course to secure 67 seats, with Labour winning just 228.
While any such polling so far out from a general election is unlikely to cause major concern in Downing Street, pollsters behind the survey say the data should act as a “wake-up call” for the Government when it comes to immigration.
According to the analysis, voters who remain loyal to Labour list “health and the state of the NHS” as their top priority, with 58 per cent citing this in their top three issues, followed by 39 per cent saying “rising food prices”, 33 per cent naming affordable housing. But fewer than a fifth – 19 per cent – of voters ranked “immigration and border control” in their top three priorities.
In contrast, more than half – 55 per cent – of so-called “Reform switchers”, who voted Labour at the last election, named immigration and border control as their top priority, followed by “health and the state of the NHS”, with 47 per cent citing this as a priority. Cost of living issues, such as rising food prices and energy bills were next with 46 per cent and 32 per cent naming these respectively.
Ministers and MPs have privately raised their concerns with The i Paper about the threat posed by Reform ahead of the next general election, citing immigration as a key issue.
One backbench Labour MP said that Channel crossings were an issue in his seat “despite my constituency being miles away from the coast”.
The polling comes just days after figures showed the number of people arriving in the UK in 2024 by crossing the English Channel in small boats was up by a quarter on the previous year.
The Labour administration, which entered office in July, faced opposition accusations of having “lost control of our borders” as Home Office data suggested 36,816 people made the journey last year.
Starmer has focused his Government on increasing cooperation with other European countries in a bid to “smash” the people smuggling gangs further away from the French border.
In November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was forced to revise up its net migration figures, revealing 906,000 people had entered the UK in the year up to June 2023.
Luke Betham, head of data science at Stonehaven, said the Government will have to show its plan is succeeding if it is to hold on to the voters that secured its election victory in the summer.
“Immigration is the key issue that is driving them away from Labour,” Betham said, before adding: “Labour should start by focusing on where these voters are, not where the party wants them to be.
“The change that was voted for at the last election cannot be realised, in their minds, unless immigration is part of the Government’s delivery narrative come the next election.”
Labour’s Dover and Deal MP Mike Tapp, who holds a 7,000 vote majority over Reform, told The i Paper: “We know that this matters to voters and it matters to us too, border security is a part of our national security and that is why it is a fundamental part of our plans to rebuild the country.
“We did inherit open borders from the Conservatives, so it will take time to secure them.”
Pollsters said the analysis shows how “shallow” Labour’s general election was, which saw the party secure 411 seats with just 34 per cent share of the national vote.
Under the MRP projection, Labour would secure 23 per cent of votes, equating to 278 seats, the Conservatives would secure 20 per cent of the vote and 157 seats, while Reform UK would hit 17 per cent handing them 120 seats. The Liberal Democrats would receive 11 per cent of the vote share and 47 seats, while the Greens would manage 7 per cent but only three seats. The SNP would gain 24 seats with just 2 per cent of the vote.
Such a result would mean senior Cabinet members, such as Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband lose their seats along with Defence Secretary John Healey, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary.
Stonehaven was found to have produced the most accurate seat-by-seat prediction with its MRP at the election, missing out on the final result by 38 seats compared with the next closest, YouGov, which was out by 52 seats.
But the overall accuracy of such mega-polls is still up for debate in the wake of the general election, with experts warning that such surveys find it hard to accurately project final constituency results when votes are split between four or more parties.
Responding to the latest set of polling, Reform UK Chairman Zia Yusuf claimed his party was “making history and will win the next general election”.
“Reform won five seats in July. Six months on this poll shows we would win 120 seats.
“Imagine where we will be in a year, and in four years. The century-long stranglehold the two old parties have had is finally breaking.”
A Labour spokeswoman said: “The Labour government was elected on a mandate for change just months ago.
“Since then, we have set up the new Border Security Command we promised, backed up with £150 million in additional funding and 100 new specialist investigators, secured new international agreements from Iraq to Germany to tackle the people-smuggling gangs, and worked with our partners in France to prevent 25,000 crossing attempts.
“Here in the UK, we have increased raids against illegal working, and delivered 33 charter flights to return people with no right to be here, sending over 13,000 people back to their own countries, and taking thousands of foreign national offenders off our streets.
“That is the difference between a government that gets on with the job of delivering change, and opposition politicians who just want to shout from the sidelines.”
Reform threat to Labour ‘rising’ in Angela Rayner’s constituency and surrounding area
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner’s seat would be at risk in the next election, according to a new poll (Photo: Dan Kitwwod/PA Wire)
By Alexa Phillips
Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner is at risk of losing her seat to Reform, according to the poll.
She won the Ashton-under-Lyne constituency with a majority of 6,791, with the candidate for Farage’s party coming second.
Anecdotally, some voters in the area say support for Reform has been growing since the election.
Pauline Town, 56, voted for Labour and would still do so today but said she is feeling “slightly disenfranchised and disillusioned” with the Government.
“Reform are certainly gaining ground locally,” she said. “There’s a lot of right-wing sentiment locally, and I think they’re capitalising on the fact that people in the centre and people more to the left are feeling let down by what the Government isdoing currently.
“My worry is that if Labour doesn’t do something to win back some of the hearts and minds that it is losing, in less than five years’ time we’re going to end up with a very right-wing government.”
Ms Town, who runs a pub and community hub that helps people in need, said she still believed it could be a safe Labour seat and praised Angela Rayner for her work in the constituency to help local groups like hers, which “doesn’t necessarily get publicised”.
She said Ms Rayner was increasingly the target of “hate” which was “very sexualised”, “misogynistic” and “disturbing to see”.
However, Ms Town said she does not agree with how the winter fuel allowance was cut. She and other community groups are increasingly hearing from older people who are struggling as a result of the decision.
“We’ve got pensioners scared of putting the heating on – that potentially is people dying,” she said.
“For me, that’s not what Labour should be about.”
She also expressed concern that the government did not keep its promises to Waspi women.
Jenny Ardron-Adams voted for Reform UK
Jenny Ardron-Adams, 56, from Stalybridge in the surrounding area, is among those who have joined Reform.
“A lot of people voted for Labour because their parents did, but Labour are not the same as they used to be when people were down in the mines.
“We need a big change.”
She said the biggest issue is people feeling angry about “being taxed on everything”.
She claimed: “Immigrants are being put in different areas where we live.
“People are up in arms about that. The way they’re treating the farmers is terrible. That’s what Reform UK is about: save the green belt, look after farmers, look after the elderly and look after our children for the future.”
Ms Ardron-Adams, a receptionist, said the Government cannot “see how normal people live”.
“I’ve got a son now who has started work,” she said. “There’s no way he’s going to be able to afford a house.”
She and others are trying to stop a proposed development on a green belt area which has upset a lot of people who want to see brownfield sites and empty buildings being used for housing instead.
People worry that immigrants are fuelling demand for housing and contributing to the loss of the green belt, she added.
Ms Ardron-Adams said rising living costs and the state of the NHS have also angered locals.
“You can’t get a doctor’s appointment for weeks,” she said.
“You go to the walk-in and you’re not being seen for up to eight hours. There are people in the corridors. It’s an absolute disgrace. The whole thing needs to change.”
