Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn
A worst case scenario probably won't happen. But hey, it might.
Over the last year or two, I’ve really tried to take a holistic approach to markets and consider the unconscionable idea that I may not be right about everything all the time.
I know—beyond unfathomable to even consider, right?
Trust me, it took me many hours at the Ashram to even consider it.
But in all seriousness, I have really tried to make room in my head for the ideas that (1) I could be wrong about the market eventually crashing and instead we could melt up, (2) I could be wrong about Bitcoin and it could also melt up, and (3) I could be wrong about monetary policy and my outlook on macro as a whole.
I think it’s healthy to question yourself occasionally. After all, the market has in some ways forced me to rethink my assumptions based on the fact that it appears to be defying common sense and waving its wang in my face any chance it gets.
But today let’s do the opposite. Following my post this past week about how the idea of leverage in markets has been on my mind, I wanted to try something different. An oldie but a goodie: entertain what a worst-case scenario might like look like. And while I don’t know what the middle stage of it could entail, I feel like I have a pretty good idea of what the beginning and the end of it would look like.