World Coal Demand and Exports Set for New Record Highs in 2024

The world’s consumption and exports of thermal coal are expected to rise this year from 2023 to hit fresh record-highs, according to export and power generation data cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

Coal-fired electricity generation has increased so far this year by 2% compared to 2023, to hit new highs as power demand in emerging markets grows. Coal power emissions are also set to rise to a record high in 2024, according to data from energy think tank Ember quoted by Maguire.

Moreover, global exports of thermal coal – the type used in coal power plants – have also climbed this year, due to rising demand in India and China in particular.

The world’s thermal coal exports rose by 9 million metric tons between January and November 2024 compared to the same period of last year, per vessel-tracking data by commodity analysts at Kpler.

Indonesia, the largest coal exporter in the world, is set to ship more than 500 million tons of coal this year, for the first time ever, according to Kpler’s estimates cited by Reuters’s Maguire.

Last year, coal demand grew by 2.6% to hit an all-time high, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a July overview of the coal markets. Back then, the agency expected coal demand for 2024 to remain broadly flat compared to 2023.

However, demand in China and India has continued to grow.

Although the share of coal in China’s electricity generation has been declining in recent years with the renewables boom, Chinese coal power generation and demand remains strong.

Coal still accounts for about 60% of China’s power generation, despite a surge in hydropower earlier this year after abundant rainfall, which reduced the share of coal in the country’s energy mix during the summer.

But hydropower saw a sharp decline in September, which boosted the use of thermal coal for power generation amid surging power demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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