Europe’s Industry Set to Suffer as Natural Gas Prices Surge

Europe’s industry is set to lose further competitiveness as high energy prices, rising natural gas prices, and concerns about gas supply this winter are increasing uncertainty about factory utilization amid rising costs.

European benchmark natural gas prices are hovering around a one-year high hit last month as cold snaps in November dashed hopes and prayers of a third relatively mild winter in a row.

In recent weeks, Europe has been depleting its natural gas stocks at the fastest pace since 2016 as demand has increased with the colder temperatures.

This adds to the looming end of Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe via Ukraine after December 31 and growing competition for spot LNG supply with Asia for winter demand.

As a result, Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, jumped last month to a 2024 high and continued to rise in early December, boosting power prices across Europe and raising energy costs for businesses.

This winter could inflict more pain on industries relying on natural gas and force curtailments in production, analysts and industry executives have told Reuters.

The much higher energy costs in Europe are putting its industries at a disadvantage compared to the U.S., Asia, or the Middle East.

For example, the current Dutch hub price is almost five times higher than the benchmark U.S. natural gas price at Henry Hub.

The highest spot-based electricity prices in Europe since February 2023 threaten industrial production in key economies and loom large over business sentiment.

The rising energy costs threaten major European economies, just as Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter of the year. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, Eurostat’s flash estimate has shown. That was higher than expected as the two top economies, those of Germany and France, outperformed forecasts.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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