Part 2: If the Shit Actually Hits the Fan

12 min readMar 27, 2025

Update since Last Week:

The reaction to my post last week about the potential cascade of events if (when?) Trump invokes the Insurrection Act has been interesting.

By and large, the reaction has been that I’m crazy. Delusional, even.

Personally, I’m rooting for the folks saying that.

That would be awesome. I’d rather be provably delusional than being right on this one. And before I get to the important topic of today’s post, I’ll make a commitment here, now: if my predictions and fears are wrong, and on April 20, 2026, we are still a free and functioning democracy, and none of what I’ve predicted has come to pass and if you’re one of the folks who have commented here on Medium, send me a note, and I’ll venmo you money to have a celebratory beer on me. (Assuming you’re of age, of course.) That might cost me more than a few bucks. But well worth it, and is a much better outcome than the other potential future.

Also, I want to mention that another post I’m planning to do shortly will be on probabilistic forecasting, aka scenario analysis, where I’ll get into the details of why I’m feeling there is such a real chance things will unfold as I predict, and how you can take my assumptions and pressure-test them yourself. You may disagree both with my assumptions and my calculations. If so, that’s great. Show me I’m wrong. I’d actually be grateful. I’m not sleeping very well lately.

So What Do We Do If We Weren’t Able to Stop This?

As I hope came through in my last post, I’m writing this because I feel the only way I can stop this from happening is to make people aware of what the playbook is likely to be in an organized coup. If people are aware and looking for it, maybe, just maybe, they’ll recognize it, and we can stop it.

It’s a bit of a catch-22 for me, personally: if it never happens, I look like a crazy guy screaming about the end-of-days. (And I’ll admit, I’ve been asking myself regularly if perhaps that’s not the case.) But small price to pay.

But maybe making people aware will help stop the false-flag operations from taking place, or help some folks have cooler heads and not buy the narrative, or stop some critical mass from taking place for other civil rights suspensions, or inoculate people enough to not believe the lies and propaganda, and maybe somewhere short-circuit the chain of events that lead to the end of the US Constitution, and the country that I love, despite our flaws.

But let’s suppose it’s April 21st, 2025… and Trump has just invoked the Insurrection Act.

What then?

Recap: The Scenario I Laid out is Not Original: It is the Classic Method for Overthrowing Governments

Here’s how it goes:

On or slightly after April 20th, 2025, Trump will most likely sign an executive order invoking the Insurrection Act.

The excuse will be to secure the border and deport violent gang member illegal aliens, and possibly bring order to out-of-control cities, but it will actually be the first step to eventually fully declare martial law across the United States, and suspend civil liberties, and the US Constitution.

To most it will come without warning. The press might not even report on it until the last minute. When it happens, expect confusion, misinformation, and panic. Many will be caught off guard.

(But a few of us won’t be, at least not entirely — because we saw this coming.)

The ultimate purpose is to eventually fully overthrow the United States government, put Trump, his billionaire co-conspirators, and people who share the values of his very fuzzy reactionary political coalition fully and permanently in control.

I personally find the billionaire techno-fascists (Musk, Thiel, Andresseen, Yarvin, Land, Vance — see my post about these folks in my earlier Grok Papers series) of even more concern than the run-of-the-mill conservative reactionaries. The latter group, truth be told, do have some very legitimate grievances about how our country has treated them. But while we agree on the diagnosis, I couldn’t disagree with them more about the cure e.g. Trump and letting billionaire anarcho-capitalists have their way with things.

What Will Happen First?

Once Trump pulls the trigger on invoking the Insurrection Act, the following will likely unfold in rapid succession:

Protests — building on the growing protests already happening — will be organized, perhaps despite warnings by authorities not to assemble.
These protests will quickly turn violent, as false-flag operations by infiltrators from militias like the Proud Boys cause conspicuous violence, cause vandalism and arson, goad others into riots and looting, and preposition weapons and materials to encourage chaos.
The real unknown, but biggest potential accelerant, would be a major assassination of a major political figure, and the immediate blaming of the woke left. It occurred to me the other night exactly who the most likely candidate(s) would be as targets… and I don’t want to put it in writing, as I am not advocating for any kind of violence, and don’t want to even give the impression of suggesting anything. I am not. Exactly the opposite, actually: if the Insurrection Act is invoked, there is nothing more important than stopping this from happening, as that is what will truly make dictatorship near-impossible to stop. But for those who might be wondering, it’s a straight-forward thought exercise. Who is most able to be a roadblock to Trump’s increasingly illegal executive orders? Who is nominally on the same team, but Trump has been having run-ins with lately? Whose removal from the stage, if removed as a barrier, would make things easier for Trump’s plans? I’ll leave it at that. But if an incredibly notable and unfortunate event happens, where a major figure is (or figures are) removed… a question to keep in mind is whether Trump benefits or not. It would be quite the coincidence if, of all the figures who might have been targeted, it’s one or several who could best stand in the way of Trump’s plans who were targeted.
The Insurrection Act will be expanded from the borders to nationwide, and martial law will be declared. In the panic of seemingly terroristic actions and a hyperbolic media panicking regular folks, Trump will claim that there’s no other options, as America is under attack from “leftist radicals,” “the deep state,” or “the woke mob.”
Troops and National Guard units will be deployed to major cities. Expect military presence in Washington, D.C., New York, Chicago, L.A., Philadelphia, and other blue-state hubs. As the repression comes down harder, people will resist more, and a vicious cycle would likely start, where it’s not just provocateurs causing trouble any longer. When pushed down, people resist, especially in places that have felt long histories of repression. The fuse was lit, but now things are perpetuating themselves.
A curfew will be imposed, at least in places not fully in Trump’s camp. This will come with warnings: Stay off the streets or face arrest.
Internet and social media restrictions may follow. X (Twitter), Facebook and all the rest, and news networks and sites may suddenly change what they allow to be posted — or even go dark in certain areas.
Opposition leaders, journalists, and activists will start disappearing. Some will be arrested. Some may simply “vanish.” The goal will be to silence key voices before they can organize resistance.
Trump will issue a call for armed citizens to “protect America.” He will claim that law enforcement is being overwhelmed and that “good Americans” need to step up, just like 1776.
Militias will begin patrolling streets. Groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Three Percenters — who have been training for this moment — will take to the streets, armed and emboldened. Trump could even sign an executive order deputizing miliitas as law enforcement officers. They will also be recruiting. And some Americans, seeing the chaos, will step up, seeing it as their way to help the country they love in its time of need.
Mid-term elections will be suspended. There may still be elections at some point, but they will be neither free nor fair, nor will there be anyone left who can do anything about it if they aren’t.

What We Must Do Immediately if the Insurrection Act is Invoked

1. Do NOT panic. Understand what is happening.

We expected this. They want chaos and fear. If people don’t understand the plan, they will be easily manipulated into accepting authoritarian rule.
Our job is to educate everyone around us. Show them that this is not spontaneous — it is a playbook.
Your most important job, even more than protesting — which may be of limited value anyway — is to educate and expose the false narratives, and share the likely playbook we’ve outlined as widely as possible. Just get people to take half a moment to ask themselves if this is actually a coup meant to overthrow our government, as each new step we predicted occurs. If we can just do that, and just that, we have a real chance of derailing their plans.

2. If you do Protest, Document EVERYTHING.

They need the narrative of “violent leftist rebellion” to justify the crackdown. We need to prove the opposite.
Record and track instigators. Many “rioters” won’t be actual protesters but plants sent to start violence.
If you see masked individuals breaking windows, lighting fires, or escalating violence — record them.
Follow them — who do they report to? Where do they go afterward? Who is organizing them?
If safe, try to expose them in real-time — point them out to others, shout that they are not part of the protest.
Upload videos and images quickly in case the internet gets restricted.

3. Keep Protests Peaceful — and Be Ready to Confront Lies.

Trump and his allies need violence to justify martial law.
When violence does happen, immediately identify and isolate the instigators. But be careful, these are dangerous people. And regular protesters must not be drawn into fights or provoked. Watch your back and the backs of others.
If you are at a demonstration, always have people stationed nearby recording from a safe distance. This footage will matter later.
If you attending or an organizer, it is critical to assign appropriate people to patrol around and outside the areas of the protests to identify and minimize the impact of agitators and false-flag operators. During the George Floyd protests, multiple provocateurs were caught on video trying to incite violence, including Umbrella Man and the Boogalo Boys in Minneapolis. Despite sounding like the name of an unfortunate Yacht Rock cover band, these people are dangerous and motivated: use caution, but also try to establish what they are, to offset the false narrative. Capture them on video, follow them, and try to get law enforcement to intervene and create a record, even detain them. But again, be careful. These people are extremely dangerous.
Keep protests from getting violent. Note that at January 6 Oath Keepers pre-positioned weapons and explosives, although they were not used, and there were (unverified) reports of cobblestones being delivered to street corners for use against the police. If you see similar patterns, report them, and assign people to keep things from being used.
Go home early, and encourage other protestors to do the same. As Americans, we have the Right of Assembly. But the more we are able to minimize the chance of unfortunate events, the more likely we are to be able to retain all of our Rights.

4. Do NOT Get Isolated. Stay in Groups.

If mass arrests begin, individuals will disappear quickly.
Move in groups. Stay connected. Have safe meeting points and backup communication methods (encrypted apps, ham radio, etc.).
Do not comply with illegal orders. If police or military demand you leave a lawful protest, record everything and calmly assert your rights.

5. Protect Your Community from Armed Militias.

Militias will be encouraged by Trump to “restore order.”
Some of these people may be your neighbors — others may be militia volunteers from outside your area — in either case, they are armed. Many have trained for years with AR-15s.
Keep friends and family from joining them. If you know people being recruited, talk them down now — before it’s too late.
Expose their actions. Record and share to social media. If militias start patrolling, document them and spread the truth: these are not heroes, they are enforcers of an unlawful coup.

6. Prepare for Information Blackouts.

Mainstream news may be censored or manipulated. The government could restrict access to certain sites or shut down parts of the internet.
Establish alternative communication now:
At protests, and especially under martial law, your phone can be used to track, detain, and convict you. To stay secure, use a burner phone (cash-paid, no ID) or disable location, Bluetooth, and Wi-Fi on your main phone. Always use Mullvad VPN (no logs) and communicate via Signal (encrypted texting), Session (no phone number required), and Briar (offline messaging via Bluetooth/Wi-Fi if networks go down). Use ProtonMail for secure email, never SMS or Gmail. Keep your phone in airplane mode when not in use, delete sensitive messages, and never bring a personal device to protests if avoidable. Remember many January 6th insurrectionists were arrested due to corroboraring mobile phone location data. They will be eager to return the favor.
Print offline informational flyers now, explaining the situation in case people lose internet access. Or power. Or both.

7. Speak Directly to the Police and Military.

Many law enforcement officers and soldiers will be uneasy. Some will follow orders, but others will hesitate if they realize what’s happening.
Remind them of their oath. Ask: “Is this what you signed up for?”
Some officers may be looking for a reason to resist unlawful orders. Give them one.

The Only Way to Stop This Is to Expose It

The biggest weapon against authoritarianism is truth. And now, before triggers are pulled… figuratively and literally.

The more people who understand this plan in advance, the harder it will be to execute.
We must inoculate America against the coup before it happens. Even if it seems crazy, and a remote possibility, talk to your friends and family now, maybe starting with “I heard this crazy theory, I’m wondering what you think. If there were a coup, what do you think it would look like? How would it go down? Do you think the Insurrection Act would make it easier if Trump actually wanted to be a dictator, even though it’s absurd he would want to be?”
We must flood the narrative with reality before they can drown it in lies.

Next Steps

The next post will lay out specific, concrete actions you can take starting TODAY to prepare, personally.

This is not a drill. The time to act is now.

Next Post: Part 3: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’

(Or you can read the TLDR version of Post 3. I know I can write a lot of words. :D )

Footnotes:

A few loose ends that distracted from the important points above, but I want to mention.

I will note that there is a coincidence of interest with Putin and Russia as well, and we definitely see some deeply concerning things in how Trump is embracing Putin. Not that I know for sure one way or another, but my personal take is that while Trump’s embrace of Putin other authoritarians is correlated factor, ultimately I believe this is an internally-driven coup, not Trump under orders from Putin, although Putin certainly knows how to appeal to Trump to get him to do what he wants. Trump is doing what he wants to do because he thinks he wants to do it, not because he is following orders. That it also serves Putin’s interests is fine with him.
There’s not much benefit in trying to understand “why?” although I myself find myself spending much time on it. For me, understanding “why” gives me a bit of control of the uncontrollable through understanding, when everything seems so unexplainable and unbelievable. Maybe I’ll write another post on that at some point, but for now, my point of view is that key driver is what has always driven these kinds of men: Power. Glory. Self-interest. It’s all addictive, and when you get to a certain tier… you want more and more.

Hang in. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. And you are not alone.