The Belarusian and Russian security services are preparing to take “preemptive” measures against Nato member states, the Kremlin’s spy chief has said.
Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service, accused Nato of an increase in military activity near the borders of the two countries. Belarus is Russia’s strongest ally in Europe and the Kremlin has used its territory for attacks on Ukraine. Moscow also says it has transferred tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“We feel and see that European countries, especially France, Britain and Germany, are increasing the level of escalation around the Ukrainian conflict, so we need to act preemptively. We are ready for this,” Naryshkin said during talks with Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian dictator, in Minsk.
Naryshkin, a reputed former KGB officer, gave no other details or evidence for his claim of a Nato build-up near the Belarusian and Russian borders.
Western security officials suspect that agents from both countries have orchestrated dozens of arson and sabotage attacks in Europe since President Putin ordered tanks into Ukraine in 2022.
The Kremlin’s shadow war in Europe is intended to create “political disquiet” in Europe and undermine support for Ukraine, Nato has said. It has been described as “staggeringly reckless” by Sir Richard Moore, the head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service.
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Warehouses, cargo planes, shops and underwater cables have all been targeted, officials say. Russia is also said to have carried out hacking campaigns and electronic jamming in Europe.
A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank said the number of attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, after quadrupling between 2022 and 2023. It read: “Despite the increase in Russian attacks, western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks.”
The report said sabotage was an attractive tactic for Moscow because it allowed the Kremlin “to conduct coercive activities against a state below a threshold that is likely to trigger a costly or risky conventional war”.
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There have been no suspected Russian sabotage attacks in either Hungary or Serbia, the Kremlin’s biggest allies in Europe besides Belarus.
While the GRU, the Russian military intelligence service, is thought to play the main role in Moscow’s sabotage campaign, Naryshkin’s SVR, as well as the FSB, Russia’s internal security service, which was briefly headed by Putin in the late 1990s, are also said to be responsible for attacks.
Not all of the sabotage has been carried out directly by the Kremlin’s agents. Last year a 20-year-old British man admitted an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned business in east London on behalf of Moscow, while a Romanian man was arrested this month over a fire at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham that was caused by a suspected Russian incendiary device.
A 17-year-old Ukrainian refugee has also been charged with terrorism by Lithuania over an arson attack on an Ikea store in Vilnius, the capital. Daniil Bardadim is said to have been offered a BMW and about $11,000 to set fire to the store. It is unclear if he realised he may have been working for Moscow.
