Ukraine Losing Its Trump Card as Russian Troops Enter Kursk Stronghold

Russian forces have entered the Ukrainian-held Russian town of Sudzha, according to Russian sources, after days of fresh attacks on Ukrainian positions in Kursk and as highly anticipated talks between the U.S. and Ukraine get underway in the Middle East.

Why It Matters

Kyiv's surprise incursion into Kursk, which borders Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region, in August last year had given President Volodymyr Zelensky a potential bargaining chip in peace talks, including those taking place between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia.

Russia's inability to fully dislodge Ukrainian forces, even with the help of thousands of North Korean troops, has likely been a sore point for the Kremlin. But Moscow has doubled down on its efforts to peel back Ukraine's control around Sudzha in recent days, the remaining major settlement held by Kyiv in Kursk.

Should Moscow regain control of all of Kursk it would weaken Ukraine's negotiating position, already hampered by a fracturing of relations with President Donald Trump.

During the now-infamous and extraordinary Oval Office meeting between Trump, Zelensky and U.S. Vice President JD Vance late last month, Trump told Zelensky: "You don't have the cards right now."

Much of the U.S. administration's actions toward Kyiv in recent weeks, including halting all U.S. military aid and pausing much U.S.-derived intelligence sharing, has backed Kyiv into a corner heading into Tuesday's talks.

Russia could demand that the U.S. leverages Ukraine into pulling out of Kursk in exchange for sitting down at the negotiating table, Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek on Tuesday.

What To Know

Several of Russia's influential cabal of military bloggers, often used as indicators of battlefield changes in lieu of official statements from Moscow, reported advances by the Kremlin's troops around Sudzha on Tuesday.

One prominent account, Two Majors, reported on Tuesday that Russian paratroopers were operating inside Sudzha, while Moscow's forces had seized two settlements southeast of the town.

Moscow controls roughly 40 percent of Sudzha, the channel claimed. Another channel claimed Ukrainian forces remained to the west and northwest of Sudzha, and a third account reported fierce clashes in an industrial area of northeastern Sudzha as Russian troops advanced southward from Kazachya Loknya. These reports could not be independently verified.

An image circulated by Russian sources on Tuesday appeared to show a Russian soldier, wearing the country's flag and standing in front of a sign marking an entrance to Sudzha. The photograph, which could not be independently verified, is said to have been taken on the northeastern edge of the town, close to the settlement of Martynovka.

Martynovka is one of the 12 villages Russia's Defense Ministry said on Tuesday it had retaken in Kursk, along with "more than 100 square kilometers" of territory in the region. On Monday, the Russian government shared footage purporting to show drone strikes on Ukrainian positions on the "outskirts" of Sudzha.

The British government assessed on Monday that Ukraine retained control over roughly 300 square kilometers of Kursk.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a prominent U.S. think tank that tracks daily changes to the front lines in Ukraine, said on Monday that Moscow's troops were "consolidating their gains" in Kursk and "likely preparing to attack Sudzha in the coming days."

Reports in recent weeks have suggested thousands of Ukrainian troops could be at risk of encirclement by Russian forces in Kursk as Moscow plowed on with efforts to destroy vital supply lines. Ukrainian newspaper the Kyiv Independent reported on Friday that Russian forces had ripped up Ukrainian logistics routes in Kursk, including bridges around the city.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's top soldier, sought to calm fears that Ukrainian troops could end up trapped in Sudzha, writing in a statement on Monday that they faced "no threat of encirclement." However, the commander-in-chief did suggest that Ukrainian forces were shifting to more "favorable defensive positions" in the area.

Kyiv had acknowledged a Russian offensive near Sudzha on Saturday, sharing footage it said showed thwarted Russian paratroopers traveling along a gas pipeline close to Sudzha and attempting to secure a "foothold" around the town. This could not be independently verified.

One pro-war Russian account reported at the weekend that Russian troops had crawled through miles of pipeline tunnels, often sitting and "waiting for the command to storm for several more days."

Apty Alaudinov, the head of the Akhmat special forces hailing from Russia's Chechen region, told Russian state media on Tuesday that troops sneaking through the gas pipeline to fight Ukrainian troops around Sudzha "caused overwhelming panic among Ukrainian units."

Senior Ukrainian officials, including the chief of Zelensky's office, Andriy Yermak, as well as Kyiv's foreign and defense ministers, joined high-ranking Trump administration officials for several hours of meetings in the Saudi port city of Jeddah on Tuesday.

Zelensky himself, while he traveled to Saudi Arabia and met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has not attended.

There are high hopes that Ukraine can mend its fraught relations with the country that had been Kyiv's biggest backer, but has veered toward a more conciliatory tone to Russia since Trump strode back into the White House.

What People Are Saying

Moscow said on Tuesday: "In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost up to 66,550 servicemen [and] 391 tanks." This could not be independently verified.

Ukraine's Syrsky said on Monday: "There is currently no threat of encirclement of our units in the Kursk region," adding Ukrainian forces were keeping "favorable defensive positions."

Merezhko told Newsweek that he couldn't "rule out that one of Russia's requirements, before starting negotiations…might be demanding from Americans, first of all, [the] withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk."

What Happens Next

It's not yet clear how much headway the talks in Jeddah will make, despite positive rumblings from the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations, and whether Russia's rapid advances in Kursk will be able to entirely push Ukraine back over the border in the coming days and weeks.