US recession in 2025?

$9,094,703 Vol.

12% chance

0123456789

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Volume

$9,094,703

End Date

Feb 28, 2026

Resolver

0x6A9D222616...

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Holders

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

sorcerer.00

2d ago

Once Q3 gdp comes in positive this bet is over

sorcerer.00

2d ago

🟢 Latest Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast Q3: 2.53%

sorcerer.00

2d ago

🟢 Latest US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q3: 2.02%

0x898B9e9e1B449D...

7d ago

Please consider opening this market throughout 2026. It seems that there were still recessions in both 2001 and 2008 financial crisis despite there being positive GDP at the same time for both periods. The NBER also said the recession started in 2007 which was later declared a year after

nerdalertfinalbo...

8d ago

Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025 market is cheaper and way more likely to happen

mekanical

10d ago

GG yes holders. In a world where 7+ trillion dollars are printed globally each year it was always going to be an uphill battle.

BrainrotInvestor

9d ago

@mekanical

not how recession under the "two quarters rule" is calculated. Real GDP is GDP growth - inflation. Real GDP decreasing for two quarters is the unofficial definition of recession. Printing 7 trillion dollars causes inflation.

mekanical

7d ago

@BrainrotInve...

It takes 1-2 years for newly printed debt to make its way into inflation numbers while it only takes a few months for it to make its way into growth numbers. That aside, the GDP adjustment is based on US inflation. Most of the credit creation globally through the first half of this year has been abroad. US companies/exports/growth numbers get a boost from credit expansion abroad in a variety of ways (often at the expense of the countries expanding credit).

KiingDerby

12d ago

We are already in a recessionary environment as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The reason our GDP was positive was due to the reduction in import skewing the numbers. In normal economic conditions, our GDP reading would’ve been -1

NoSteinNoGate

11d ago

@KiingDerby

I thought so too but its not true. Its true that imports are included in the formula - GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) - as M but they are also in C, I and G. That way imports are canceled out. There are other GDP formulas which dont include imports at all.

mekanical

10d ago

@KiingDerby

Wrong. Core GDP in q2 (excluding imports) was also positive at 1.2%. The imports were just icing on the cake.

bob-is-your-uncl...

12d ago

Somehow the recession in 2025 odds is higher than the Q3 negative GDP odds. People think 2 quarters of negative prints are more likely than just 1? Or Q2 would be adjusted to negative? what a weird place this is.

CompulsiveGamble...

12d ago

@bob-is-your-...

Just opportunity cost for the end of year market. The risk free rate on this site is really high

BrainrotInvestor

12d ago

For some reason there is an incorrect consensus that a recession is two quarters of decreasing GDP, when a recession is actually whenever the independent NBER says it is. People also believe that we can't be revised into recession like in 2008.

sorcerer.00

12d ago

@BrainrotInve...

In over 100 years of operation the NBER has only declared a recession without 2 quarters of negative GDP 1 time, and it was in 2008 with the worst economic data coming out you could possibly think of. Per the rules they also only have until the end of this year to announce so they can't revise it. Once Q3 GDP comes in positive this bet will sit at 97c

BrainrotInvestor

12d ago

@sorcerer.00

yes it will resolve negative at 01/01/26 if nothing ever happens, but they could revise 2024 or early-mid 2025 into reccession. I believe this is unlikely, but more likely than a 15% chance. The june jobs report was bad before revision, it showed negative private sector growth outside of uber drivers and taking care of old people. It showed unemployment was decreasing because people were exiting the labor market. It was then revised down into a godawful jobs report.

mightx

14d ago

Sold with +70% ;)

Shorpheus

15d ago

lol you can't trust the BEA numbers. the entire govt has been filled with MAGA tards, they'll do anything to please dear leader.

Probs

15d ago

Q2 GDP estimates at 3.0%... The chances of recession went down significantly, this should be trading at like 90%

15d ago

Yes, its strange.

15d ago

I think many are using this market as a hedge, over inflating it's real value

Therealtruth

15d ago

Big release in an hour

Therealtruth

15d ago

@Therealtruth

+3.0%

Acap2

22d ago

Tried to tell you dummies. lol. Recession. Who ever voted yes is one dumb dick.

DarthPaul

29d ago

You the heck thinks the US will be in a recession? Once Powell is replaced or he lowers rates, the economy is going to boom.

DarthPaul

29d ago

@DarthPaul

I meant Who

batmanfren

30d ago

we will see

WhatsApp38671560...

29d ago

@batmanfren

My breasts are a little different in size, can you help me check?

TrollFog

25d ago

@WhatsApp3867...

Polymarket is the worst place to promote this kind of stuff, no one cares, we are here to lose money on stupid things

ThePolymath

1mo ago

Problem is it takes 2Q of negative to signal inflation, so bet could be over soon.

angrypika

1mo ago

best hedge ever

ToothfulWalrus

1mo ago

Is there a market for 2026?

supahao

1mo ago

Just free money

tradewiz

1mo ago

@supahao

Tariffs are coming back on July 9th, I wouldn't be so sure ;)

Nate0000

1mo ago

@tradewiz

TACO again buddy. You lose ; )

DarthPaul

1mo ago

"NO" is literally money in the bank after today

angrypika

1mo ago

@DarthPaul

ghey

mekanical

1mo ago

For everyone wondering why we keep getting positive prints and stock ATHs after tariffs and global debt/war chaos: please see a global total m2 chart. Cash is king.

BeeTC

1mo ago

@mekanical

Good joke buddy. Your USD is going down the drain and there is absolutely nothing you can do about that.

mekanical

1mo ago

@BeeTC

USD is certainly going down the drain. All we can do is buy hard assets and take money from the recession "yes" holders.

DarthPaul

1mo ago

When thi OBBB is signed today, you can kiss any chance of a recession goodbye!

nilsdub

1mo ago

Unfortunately for all the YES's, the definition of a recession is manipulable. Yes officially it's "Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth." However GDP is an imperfect statistical measure used by governments to make claims rather than inform the public. The odds are stacked against the YESes in this post-truth economy.

socratesxr

1mo ago

@nilsdub

good point

efesis

1mo ago

Don't bet on this site. It's all a scam. Despite many entities, including an official Polymarket account, declaring it a suit, it still seems as though the market may resolve to claim that 'No." https://protos.com/zelenskyy-suit-polymarket-dispute/

🍄TheMushroomGuy

2mo ago

Trump killing Canada trade deal, impact of tariffs coming in the next months, higher prices will impact demand... economic data in the coming weeks and months will be terrible. Expect NFP easy below 100k next week

mekanical

1mo ago

@🍄TheMushroo...

Odds of negative q3 gdp print collapsed in june: https://polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025?tid=1751323921618. Q4 will have fed interest rate cut tailwinds. Gas prices are down from a year ago. I eagerly await your "terrible" data as the nasdaq prints new all time highs.

mekanical

1mo ago

@🍄TheMushroo...

Ay what happened to that jobs data, 145k print. Any hope left in the Yes camps?

outcome

2mo ago

6 months left of the year, 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth... It's sorta over yes holders, unless you deem the next 6 months to be the bleakest in recent history. I would not be paying close to 30c here. More like 2c.

🍄TheMushroomGuy

2mo ago

Q2 will be positive, no doubt about that... but Q3 and Q4 the effects of higher prices, tariffs and slowdown will arrive... recession odds should be in the high 30s imho... i see it 40 yes - 60 no.

Nate0000

2mo ago

People are forgetting ... Nothing ever happens.

vegeta

2mo ago

How do you be in the inner circle of deciding what the truth is on Uma or just to here some shred of what they discussing as their next scam

Zvc.296

2mo ago

Please let WW3 break out, so I can cash out🤑🤑🤑

darvishfan

2mo ago

bro we're def in a recession, I can't get a damned job working at mickey D's lol

MANFRED

2mo ago

I have found a value bet Will the US strike the Fordow nuclear facility before July For me it should be sixty NO instead of forty My opinion is NO as many factors reduce the chance of this happening see the rules the attack must penetrate and not be neutralized Technical Limitations Fordow is underground protected by concrete and rock built to resist drones and conventional bombs Only a bunkerbuster bomb like GBU fifty seven MOP could destroy it These bombs are rare risky and their failure would hurt Trump politically He is unlikely to use them unless under extreme pressure Political and Geopolitical Context Many Republicans MAGA and Congress members want to avoid another war Trump prefers to avoid a long conflict or new fronts with Russia and China Russia and others warn of major escalation and nuclear risk US intel says Iran is not actively making nuclear weapons so justification is weak.

darvishfan

2mo ago

@MANFRED

bro, keep it hush hush king

darvishfan

2mo ago

@MANFRED

we don't need the normies to know about the good markets

Us.official

2mo ago

I possess some insider knowledge, and I’m in it for the cash, if you know what I mean.

MANFRED

2mo ago

Take a look at Iran's bet that it will end uranium enrichment before August. It's wonderful; the option is NOT significantly undervalued. Just read the rules and draw your own conclusion

Aura5345

2mo ago

Donate if ur gonna win this bet

0x71E5fFAdf2b259...

2mo ago

How high will this spike if Fordow is bombed tonight?

NOway

2mo ago

I lost all.. can any kind guy share me a dollar for last hope?...

askdjfhklasjh

2mo ago

@NOway

you lost 400 dollars, while trading with 70k. lol

Kissmybutt

2mo ago

@NOway

There is no hope

porktato

2mo ago

everything always happen

askdjfhklasjh

2mo ago

A lot of people are underestimating how quickly a recession can happen… It’s slow at first, then the tipping point is reached and it’s out of control. We have not yet reached that tipping point

US recession in 2025?

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US recession in 2025?

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