Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

$255,089 Vol.

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% chance

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Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede territory under its control in Russia’s Kursk Oblast is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia regains territory in the Kursk Oblast through military action, or if Ukraine unilaterally cedes Russian territory absent of a diplomatic process or agreement, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Volume

$255,089

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

Resolver

0x6A9D222616...

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

Holders

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

pixls

12d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xikMReDKM6o

bawabawa

2mo ago

There is no official announcement from Ukraine, but Russia and more than enough of other sources are reporting that it regained full control on Kursk Oblast. How long must we wait for it to resolve?

Gluckyklucky

2mo ago

@bawabawa

At the end of the year, 31 dec, because exists chance that Ukraine gains some territory of Kursk oblast again.

UMAisSCAM

3mo ago

On 26 April, Russia claimed it had driven Ukrainian forces out of the region. The claim was denied by the Ukrainian government, who said that while Ukrainian forces were in a "difficult position", they had resisted encirclement and pushed back Russian assaults.[281][282][283] Russia also acknowledged for the first time that North Korean soldiers had been fighting alongside Russian troops, with Russian General Valery Gerasimov praising the "heroism" of North Korean troops.[284]

UMAisSCAM

3mo ago

On 22 April, The Telegraph reported that following a 10-day battle Russian forces recaptured St. Nicholas Belogorsky Monastery in Gornal, one of the last remaining Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast.[280]

bpratt012

3mo ago

Two villages left. Both contested.

How.Dare.You

3mo ago

@bpratt012

UMAisSCAM

3mo ago

Keep in mind what we are betting on is "what will happen", NOT "what you wish to happen"

UMAisSCAM

3mo ago

Things going to the right direction. "Russia pushes Ukrainian troops from one of their last footholds in Kursk region, army says"

UMAisSCAM

3mo ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-is-pushing-last-ukrainian-forces-out-kursk-region-towards-border-2025-04-08/

jsjr

4mo ago

This is pretty much over, 69km^2 left according to Ukrainian mapping project DeepState: https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/51.1485557/35.3086853

How.Dare.You

4mo ago

@jsjr

You know what im saying?

jsjr

4mo ago

@How.Dare.You

no, what?

jsjr

4mo ago

American survives drone attack in Kursk [WARN: Strong footage]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MowWjVqhWaI

jsjr

4mo ago

As Russia retakes Kursk, Ukrainians asks Was it worth it? - Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-retakes-kursk-ukrainians-ask-was-it-worth-it-2025-03-22/

jsjr

4mo ago

"It was all for nothing" - NBC News in Kursk: https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/front-line-tensions-remain-in-russia-s-kursk-region-as-war-drags-on-234984517807

jsjr

4mo ago

Here's a real American war reporter reporting directly from Kursk, think it might be interesting, I have no time but if someone can watch it there might be some update about whats going on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zbvHKvWYQo

mRasska

4mo ago

they're prob clearing the territory being captured before advancing further.

jsjr

4mo ago

This article might be good, I don't feel like reading it all but the title indicates this will be a NO: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-withdrawal-kursk/

jsjr

4mo ago

@jsjr

"With forced withdrawal, Russia takes away Ukraine's Kursk cards With forced withdrawal, Russia takes away Ukraine's Kursk cards", seems they have not cards

jsjr

4mo ago

Trump asked Putin to spare the lives of the Ukr soldiers in Kursk which are surrounded, Putin said he'll do it if Zelensky formally gives them the order to surrender. Zelensky say he won't, its all a lie. Is the intelligence that the President of the United States has access to somehow faulty, or is it Zelensky that lies? This will be a No, because nobody is going to ask Ukraine to give up territory in Kursk, there's no need to..

Gluckyklucky

4mo ago

It is obvious that Kursk Oblast was returned by military action and all who bet now "Yes" is just throwing their money in window

Gluckyklucky

4mo ago

"If Russia regains territory in the Kursk Oblast through military action, or if Ukraine unilaterally cedes Russian territory absent of a diplomatic process or agreement, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution."

maliki

4mo ago

In Saudi Arabia, agreements were reached under which Ukraine withdrew its troops from the Kursk region. This is exactly what happened immediately after the agreement.

sigh

4mo ago

buy more bitch

How.Dare.You

4mo ago

@maliki

Im waiting for you in the orderbook please bet more yes. The dnc needs funding for 2028

jonnywalker

4mo ago

Will it be an automatic "No" victory if the russians take over the Kursk region? As far as I know, the Ukrainians are withdrawing their troops from there

perfectlypredict...

4mo ago

@jonnywalker

Tough question. The current wording is rather non-specific and if there is a case that Russia will kick Ukraine out of Kursk region now, but later within a year Ukraine will enter there again and further agree to withdraw as part of the agreement, then this market should be resolved as “Yes”

jsjr

5mo ago

New York Post say Ukraine to pull out of Kursk in two weeks, which seems a bit ambitious but still.. it will happen without Ukr agreeing to it: https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/world-news/ukraine-forces-likely-to-pull-out-of-russias-kursk-region-within-two-weeks-sources/

bawabawa

5mo ago

Am I correct that in case of Russia regaining the territory through military action, it will be considered as "No"?

Firedigger

5mo ago

Ok so the strategy here is that whether there is a peace in 2025 + Kursk is exchanged in it + Kursk is not captured by Russian forces before the ceasefire. I think it is quite likely.

IntelGeoPol

5mo ago

If a deal is reached, definitely, as Ukraine has no interest in Kursk other than to use it as a bargaining chip. However, as time passes, Russia is closing in. There is also uncertainty on whether Ukraine will sign a deal, as Ukraine is not involved in the peace negotiations,

malaka361

5mo ago

nah

DFK

5mo ago

if there is a deal in 2025, it will absolutely include Russia getting back Kursk.

DFK

5mo ago

it would be a good proxy for "will there be a deal in 2025" if it didn't have special exemptions. The risk of Ukraine losing it or giving it up in a military reshuffle is significant.

BigDaddy2025

5mo ago

Result dependens on USA, I guess USA don’t want to see that, so I bet no.

BigDaddy2025

5mo ago

Result

cx0x

5mo ago

Not, Russia will take it itself

dimmas

5mo ago

Zelensky will not give up Kursk without an exchange. It is not worth even counting on it. There will be an exchange for Ukrainian territory seized by Russia. This is why Ukraine began its offensive on the Kursk region.

Rane2022

5mo ago

khokhla forgot to ask

Zeros

5mo ago

Obviously not, Russia said they will never give up Ukrainian territory for Kursk region

Oxymirin

5mo ago

Doesn't make much sense to say you would.

Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

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Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

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