EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude slips on geopolitics while reciprocal tariffs loom

Crude Oil: WTI Mar -1.2%, Brent Apr -1.2%

• The weakness in the crude complex continues after retreating yesterday amid reports that US President Trump conducted calls with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky about ending the war.


• Zelensky plans to meet US officials, including VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at a Munich defence summit (February 14 to 16, 2025). Trump mentioned a potential face-to-face meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia, though no date was specified.


• Sticking with geopolitics, but in the Middle East, "Israel's Channel 12 on official sources: After signals we received about Hamas' commitment to the deal, we are committed to the agreement", according to Al Jazeera - tempering some fears of a collapse of the ceasefire deal.


• On tariffs, US President Trump did not sign a reciprocal tariffs order on Wednesday; Trump is to sign executive orders on Thursday at 13:00EST/18:00GMT.


• This morning, the IEA OMR raised the 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 1.05mln BPD), and noted fresh US sanctions on Russia and Iran roiled markets at the start of the year but they have yet to materially impact global oil supply. Iranian crude oil exports are only marginally lower while Russian flows, so far, continue largely unaffected.


• The IEA report had no impact on oil markets given the current fluid macro developments.


• WTI resides in a USD 70.44-71.32/bbl range while Brent trades towards the bottom of a 74.30-75.05/bbl parameter. European Nat gas is softer in tandem.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.41%, Silver +0.1%, Palladium +0.9%

• Spot gold gradually edged higher overnight after rebounding from yesterday's trough to back above the USD 2,900/oz level, while the recent fluctuations in the precious metal coincided with the swings in the greenback.


• The yellow metal remains within narrow ranges ahead of the US PPI with traders on a more cautious note after yesterday's hot US CPI.


• The geopolitical temperature has also come down a touch after President Trump conducted calls with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky about ending the war, whilst the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is seemingly to continue following a wobble earlier this week which led to fears of a collapse.


• Spot gold trades in a USD 2,900.54-2,922.88/oz parameter at the time of writing and still within Tuesday's 2,881.56-2,942.78/oz range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.2%

• Mixed trade across base metals as traders juggle the Russia-Ukraine market optimism with the looming reciprocal tariffs poised to be announced.


• Broader market optimism came amid reports that US President Trump conducted calls with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky about ending the war.


• On tariffs, US President Trump did not sign a reciprocal tariffs order on Wednesday; Trump is to sign executive orders on Thursday at 13:00EST/18:00GMT.


• 3M LME copper currently resides in a current 9,440.95-9,518.55/t range.

13 Feb 2025 - 09:55- MetalsEU Research- Source: Newsquawk