Russia Eyes New Gas Route to China, Betting Big on Growing Demand

Russia is eyeing yet another pipeline to China, this time via Kazakhstan, capable of delivering up to 35 bcm of natural gas annually. Announced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the plan comes as Moscow pivots hard toward Beijing, already shipping 40 bcm of gas to the Asian giant this year. With Europe now firmly out of the picture, China is the Kremlin’s star energy customer, even if gas accounts for just 2.8% of Beijing’s energy mix.

The logic is simple: China likes gas, and its appetite is growing. Domestic consumption surged 8.8% in the first eight months of the year, hitting 283 bcm, fueled by urban heating, industry, and a major push to replace diesel trucks with LNG. By 2040, natural gas demand in China is expected to soar by over 50%. Still, let’s not forget—coal is king in China, holding nearly 60% of the energy mix, making gas a flashy side dish rather than the main course.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan isn’t sitting idle. The Caspian state clearly sees room for growth, with gas exports to China at a modest 4 bcm annually.

For Moscow, this pipeline would be a lifeline in its attempt to solidify ties with Beijing and fill the gaping revenue hole left by Europe. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves—China isn’t about to put all its energy eggs in Russia’s basket, and it’s no stranger to using competition to negotiate prices down.

China’s gas hunger is driving the moves as it plays the long game. Russia must decide whether its latest bet will pay off.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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