Ilhan Omar's Chances of Losing Primary to Don Samuels, According to Polls

Representative Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat, is set to face off against former Minneapolis city councilor Don Samuels in her primary race on Tuesday, with polls suggesting the congresswoman has a lead over her challenger.

Omar is the latest progressive Democrat to face a high-profile primary this year. So far, the Democratic Party's moderate wing has defeated two members of "The Squad," an informal coalition of U.S. House progressives. Representatives Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri have both lost their primaries, while Representative Summer Lee of Pennsylvania defeated her challenger earlier this year.

Omar, first elected in 2018, faced a competitive challenge from Samuels in 2022 when she defeated him by only 2 percentage points.

However, polls suggest the congresswoman may be in a stronger position this time around.

The most recent survey conducted on the race from Lake Research Partners on behalf of Omar's campaign found her with a sizable lead over Samuels. Omar led Samuels by 27 points in the poll (60 to 33 percent). It was conducted from July 17 to 21 among 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

An earlier poll conducted by Victoria Research & Consulting on behalf of Samuels' campaign also found Omar with a lead. In that poll, 49 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for the congresswoman while 30 percent said they intended to vote for Samuels. It was conducted among 519 likely voters from February 20 to 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Newsweek has reached out to Omar's and Samuels' campaigns for comment via email.

Omar also holds a fundraising lead over Samuels, according to their pre-primary campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Throughout the election cycle, Omar raised about $6.6 million while Samuels raised about $1.4 million, according to the FEC data. In July, the congresswoman raised just under $254,000, while Samuels raised about $138,000.

Whoever wins the primary is viewed as the overwhelming favorite to win the general election. The Minneapolis-based district is among the most Democratic in the country, with Republicans not strongly contesting the race.

Israel has emerged as a key issue in previous primaries. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) spent large sums of money to support Bowman and Bush's primary challengers as they have been key critics of Israel amid its offensive in Gaza.

The conflict has divided Democrats, with many supporting Israel's right to defend itself against the October 7, 2023, attack from Hamas, in which the Palestinian militant group killed 1,200 people and took about 250 others hostage.

However, other Democrats have warned about the death toll of Israel's offensive launched in the months after the attack, which has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians in the months since, the Associated Press reports, citing the Gaza Ministry of Health.

Bowman and Bush also faced attacks for not voting in support of President Joe Biden's infrastructure bill, one of his key legislative accomplishments. Many of AIPAC's advertisements criticized the lawmakers over their vote against the bill. They voted against it because they did not view it as sufficiently progressive, but their opposition was still met with a chilly reception from some constituents.

However, AIPAC and its affiliate the United Democracy Project have largely stayed out of Omar's race, Newsweek previously reported.

"I think they know that Congresswoman Omar is an extremely strong incumbent and has shored up a lot of local support and also has a pretty incredible record in the district of not only things like constituent services, but also leading on policies and initiatives that actually help everyday people in that district," Usamah Andrabi, the communications director of Justice Democrats, a PAC that supports members of "The Squad," told the Star Tribune earlier in August.