Resources Created by the CSU Tropical Group

Forecasting and Research Resources

CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities

Since 2021, we have calculated the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts, tropical cyclone-prone provinces of Canada, Atlantic-facing states of coastal Mexico, islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020. This approach allows for tropical cyclones that may have tracked through an immediately adjacent region to be counted for all regions that were in close proximity to the location of the storm. We then fit the observed frequency of storms within 50 miles of each landmass using a Poisson distribution to calculate the climatological odds of one or more events within 50 miles. Net landfall probability is shown to be linked to the overall Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence. Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. Use the drop-down to obtain the climatological odds of storms tracking within 50 miles of each state along the Gulf and East Coasts along with the odds for the current season based on the latest forecast. All of the calculations are also available in a downloadable spreadsheet.

Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities (defined as one or more storms within 50 miles of location)

State County 2025 Forecast Probability of Named Storm impact 2025 Forecast Probability of Hurricane impact 2025 Forecast Probability of Major Hurricane impact Average Probability of Named Storm impact Average Probability of Hurricane impact Average Probability of Major Hurricane impact # Named Storms 1880-2020 # Hurricanes 1880-2020 # Major Hurricanes 1880-2020
Alabama 64% 32% 10% 58% 28% 8% 123 46 12
Alabama Baldwin 47% 21% 7% 41% 18% 6% 75 28 9
Alabama Mobile 43% 21% 6% 38% 18% 6% 67 28 8
Connecticut 25% 9% 2% 22% 8% 1% 35 11 2
Connecticut Fairfield 20% 7% 2% 17% 6% 1% 27 9 2
Connecticut Middlesex 18% 8% 2% 16% 7% 1% 24 10 2
Connecticut New Haven 23% 9% 2% 20% 8% 1% 32 11 2
Connecticut New London 20% 8% 2% 17% 7% 1% 27 10 2
Delaware 26% 7% 1% 23% 6% 1% 36 9 1
Delaware Kent 17% 3% <1% 15% 3% <1% 23 4 0
Delaware New Castle 14% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Delaware Sussex 23% 7% 1% 20% 6% 1% 32 9 1
Florida 90% 62% 33% 86% 56% 29% 274 115 48
Florida Bay 38% 20% 6% 34% 17% 5% 58 26 7
Florida Brevard 48% 20% 6% 42% 17% 6% 78 26 8
Florida Broward 47% 26% 13% 42% 23% 11% 77 36 16
Florida Charlotte 43% 20% 12% 38% 17% 10% 67 26 15
Florida Citrus 39% 20% 3% 34% 17% 3% 59 26 4
Florida Collier 47% 25% 15% 42% 21% 13% 77 34 19
Florida Dixie 40% 15% 2% 35% 13% 1% 61 19 2
Florida Duval 43% 17% 4% 38% 14% 3% 67 22 5
Florida Escambia 44% 20% 8% 39% 17% 7% 69 27 10
Florida Flagler 39% 17% 2% 34% 14% 2% 59 22 3
Florida Franklin 39% 16% 3% 35% 14% 3% 60 21 4
Florida Gulf 39% 17% 3% 34% 15% 3% 59 23 4
Florida Hernando 38% 20% 5% 34% 17% 4% 58 26 6
Florida Hillsborough 41% 20% 8% 36% 17% 7% 63 27 10
Florida Indian River 42% 20% 7% 37% 17% 6% 65 26 9
Florida Jefferson 37% 11% 1% 33% 9% 1% 56 14 1
Florida Lee 45% 21% 13% 40% 18% 11% 71 28 17
Florida Levy 40% 17% 3% 36% 14% 3% 62 22 4
Florida Manatee 42% 21% 9% 37% 18% 8% 65 28 11
Florida Martin 43% 20% 8% 38% 17% 7% 67 27 10
Florida Miami-Dade 48% 27% 16% 43% 23% 14% 79 37 21
Florida Monroe 58% 34% 20% 52% 30% 17% 103 50 26
Florida Nassau 44% 15% 4% 39% 13% 3% 69 20 5
Florida Okaloosa 40% 18% 6% 36% 16% 6% 62 24 8
Florida Palm Beach 47% 25% 10% 42% 21% 9% 77 34 13
Florida Pasco 41% 20% 6% 36% 17% 5% 63 26 7
Florida Pinellas 41% 20% 8% 36% 17% 7% 64 26 10
Florida Santa Rosa 40% 19% 6% 35% 16% 6% 61 25 8
Florida Sarasota 41% 20% 10% 36% 17% 8% 63 26 12
Florida St. Johns 43% 17% 4% 38% 15% 3% 68 23 5
Florida St. Lucie 41% 17% 6% 36% 15% 6% 63 23 8
Florida Taylor 40% 13% 1% 36% 11% 1% 62 16 1
Florida Volusia 44% 20% 2% 39% 17% 2% 69 26 3
Florida Wakulla 36% 14% 2% 32% 12% 1% 54 18 2
Florida Walton 39% 20% 6% 35% 17% 6% 60 26 8
Georgia 69% 35% 7% 63% 30% 6% 140 51 9
Georgia Bryan 44% 16% 2% 39% 14% 2% 69 21 3
Georgia Camden 45% 14% 4% 40% 12% 3% 72 18 5
Georgia Chatham 45% 17% 3% 40% 14% 3% 72 22 4
Georgia Glynn 41% 12% 4% 36% 10% 3% 64 15 5
Georgia Liberty 45% 17% 3% 40% 14% 3% 72 22 4
Georgia McIntosh 44% 16% 3% 39% 14% 3% 69 21 4
Louisiana 72% 43% 17% 66% 38% 14% 151 68 22
Louisiana Cameron 36% 17% 6% 31% 15% 5% 53 23 7
Louisiana Iberia 39% 19% 6% 34% 16% 5% 59 25 7
Louisiana Jefferson 43% 22% 6% 38% 19% 6% 67 30 8
Louisiana Lafourche 45% 24% 6% 40% 21% 6% 71 33 8
Louisiana Orleans 36% 17% 5% 32% 15% 4% 54 23 6
Louisiana Plaquemines 49% 25% 8% 43% 22% 7% 80 35 10
Louisiana St. Bernard 46% 24% 9% 41% 21% 8% 74 33 11
Louisiana St. Mary 40% 20% 5% 35% 17% 4% 61 27 6
Louisiana St. Tammany 38% 18% 5% 34% 16% 4% 58 24 6
Louisiana Terrebonne 48% 25% 7% 43% 21% 6% 79 34 9
Louisiana Vermilion 35% 18% 6% 31% 16% 5% 52 24 7
Maine 25% 8% 2% 21% 7% 1% 34 10 2
Maine Cumberland 14% 2% <1% 12% 2% <1% 18 3 0
Maine Hancock 13% 5% 1% 11% 4% 1% 16 6 1
Maine Knox 15% 5% 1% 13% 4% 1% 20 6 1
Maine Lincoln 13% 2% <1% 11% 2% <1% 16 3 0
Maine Sagadahoc 13% 2% <1% 11% 2% <1% 17 3 0
Maine Waldo 12% 2% <1% 10% 2% <1% 15 3 0
Maine Washington 14% 5% 1% 12% 4% 1% 18 6 1
Maine York 17% 4% 1% 14% 3% 1% 22 5 1
Maryland 35% 13% 1% 31% 11% 1% 52 16 1
Maryland Anne Arundel 14% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Maryland Baltimore 12% 1% <1% 10% 1% <1% 15 1 0
Maryland Baltimore City 10% 1% <1% 8% 1% <1% 12 1 0
Maryland Calvert 16% 2% <1% 14% 1% <1% 21 2 0
Maryland Cecil 14% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Maryland Dorchester 20% 4% <1% 17% 3% <1% 26 5 0
Maryland Harford 12% 0% <1% 10% 0% <1% 15 0 0
Maryland Kent 14% 0% <1% 12% 0% <1% 18 0 0
Maryland Queen Anne's 15% 1% <1% 13% 1% <1% 19 1 0
Maryland Somerset 24% 7% <1% 21% 6% <1% 33 9 0
Maryland St. Mary's 20% 2% <1% 17% 2% <1% 27 3 0
Maryland Talbot 15% 1% <1% 13% 1% <1% 20 1 0
Maryland Wicomico 21% 5% <1% 18% 4% <1% 28 6 0
Maryland Worcester 27% 10% 1% 24% 9% 1% 38 13 1
Massachusetts 37% 17% 3% 33% 14% 3% 56 22 4
Massachusetts Barnstable 20% 10% 2% 17% 9% 1% 26 13 2
Massachusetts Dukes 23% 9% 2% 20% 8% 1% 31 11 2
Massachusetts Essex 17% 6% 1% 14% 5% 1% 22 7 1
Massachusetts Nantucket 22% 11% 2% 19% 9% 1% 30 14 2
Massachusetts Norfolk 17% 6% 1% 15% 5% 1% 23 7 1
Massachusetts Plymouth 19% 8% 2% 16% 7% 1% 25 10 2
Massachusetts Suffolk 17% 6% 1% 14% 5% 1% 22 7 1
Mississippi 59% 32% 9% 53% 28% 8% 106 47 11
Mississippi Hancock 36% 17% 5% 32% 14% 4% 54 22 6
Mississippi Harrison 39% 20% 5% 34% 17% 4% 59 26 6
Mississippi Jackson 37% 18% 6% 32% 16% 6% 55 24 8
New Hampshire 21% 6% 2% 18% 6% 1% 28 8 2
New Hampshire Rockingham 17% 4% 1% 14% 3% 1% 22 5 1
New Jersey 26% 8% 1% 23% 7% 1% 36 10 1
New Jersey Atlantic 20% 8% 1% 17% 7% 1% 27 10 1
New Jersey Burlington 19% 6% <1% 16% 6% <1% 25 8 0
New Jersey Cape May 21% 8% 1% 18% 7% 1% 28 10 1
New Jersey Essex 15% 3% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New Jersey Hudson 15% 3% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New Jersey Middlesex 16% 4% <1% 14% 3% <1% 21 5 0
New Jersey Monmouth 19% 7% 1% 16% 6% 1% 25 9 1
New Jersey Ocean 21% 8% 1% 18% 7% 1% 28 10 1
New Jersey Salem 14% 2% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 2 0
New Jersey Union 15% 3% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New York 30% 11% 2% 26% 9% 2% 43 14 3
New York Bronx 17% 6% 1% 15% 5% 1% 23 7 1
New York Kings 16% 5% <1% 14% 4% <1% 21 6 0
New York Nassau 18% 6% 2% 16% 6% 1% 24 8 2
New York New York 20% 7% 1% 17% 6% 1% 26 9 1
New York Queens 18% 6% 1% 16% 6% 1% 24 8 1
New York Richmond 17% 6% <1% 15% 5% <1% 23 7 0
New York Suffolk 24% 10% 2% 21% 8% 2% 33 12 3
New York Westchester 18% 6% 1% 16% 5% 1% 24 7 1
North Carolina 74% 43% 9% 68% 38% 8% 159 68 11
North Carolina Beaufort 42% 17% 1% 37% 14% 1% 66 22 1
North Carolina Bertie 38% 12% 1% 33% 10% 1% 57 15 1
North Carolina Brunswick 46% 23% 5% 41% 20% 4% 74 32 6
North Carolina Camden 40% 15% 1% 35% 13% 1% 61 20 1
North Carolina Carteret 54% 32% 5% 48% 28% 4% 92 46 6
North Carolina Chowan 34% 13% 1% 29% 11% 1% 49 17 1
North Carolina Craven 47% 23% 1% 42% 20% 1% 76 31 1
North Carolina Currituck 41% 17% 2% 36% 14% 1% 63 22 2
North Carolina Dare 54% 31% 5% 49% 27% 4% 94 45 6
North Carolina Gates 29% 10% <1% 25% 8% <1% 41 12 0
North Carolina Hertford 32% 9% <1% 28% 8% <1% 46 11 0
North Carolina Hyde 56% 31% 4% 50% 27% 3% 97 45 5
North Carolina New Hanover 45% 23% 5% 40% 20% 4% 71 32 6
North Carolina Onslow 46% 25% 4% 41% 22% 3% 74 35 5
North Carolina Pamlico 46% 23% 2% 40% 20% 1% 73 31 2
North Carolina Pasquotank 37% 15% 1% 32% 13% 1% 55 19 1
North Carolina Pender 47% 25% 5% 42% 22% 4% 76 35 6
North Carolina Perquimans 35% 14% 1% 31% 12% 1% 52 18 1
North Carolina Tyrrell 41% 20% 2% 36% 17% 1% 64 26 2
North Carolina Washington 38% 15% 1% 34% 13% 1% 58 19 1
Rhode Island 23% 9% 2% 20% 8% 1% 32 11 2
Rhode Island Bristol 16% 6% 2% 14% 6% 1% 21 8 2
Rhode Island Kent 17% 6% 1% 15% 6% 1% 23 8 1
Rhode Island Newport 19% 8% 2% 16% 7% 1% 25 10 2
Rhode Island Providence 19% 7% 1% 16% 6% 1% 25 9 1
Rhode Island Washington/South 21% 7% 2% 18% 6% 1% 28 9 2
South Carolina 63% 33% 10% 57% 29% 8% 118 48 12
South Carolina Beaufort 43% 17% 4% 38% 14% 3% 67 22 5
South Carolina Charleston 49% 24% 6% 43% 21% 5% 80 33 7
South Carolina Colleton 45% 20% 5% 40% 17% 4% 71 26 6
South Carolina Georgetown 41% 20% 5% 36% 17% 4% 64 27 6
South Carolina Horry 44% 23% 5% 39% 20% 4% 69 32 6
South Carolina Jasper 44% 16% 3% 39% 14% 3% 69 21 4
Texas 67% 41% 18% 61% 36% 16% 133 64 24
Texas Aransas 22% 13% 6% 19% 11% 5% 30 16 7
Texas Brazoria 35% 19% 6% 30% 16% 5% 51 25 7
Texas Calhoun 29% 15% 6% 25% 13% 5% 41 20 7
Texas Cameron 28% 15% 6% 24% 13% 5% 39 20 7
Texas Chambers 35% 18% 6% 30% 16% 5% 51 24 7
Texas Galveston 38% 22% 6% 34% 19% 6% 58 29 8
Texas Harris 34% 18% 5% 29% 16% 4% 49 24 6
Texas Jefferson 34% 19% 5% 29% 16% 4% 49 25 6
Texas Kenedy 28% 16% 8% 24% 14% 7% 39 21 10
Texas Kleberg 26% 15% 6% 23% 13% 6% 36 19 8
Texas Matagorda 36% 20% 9% 32% 17% 8% 54 27 11
Texas Nueces 28% 16% 7% 24% 14% 6% 39 21 9
Texas Refugio 25% 11% 5% 21% 9% 4% 34 14 6
Texas San Patricio 25% 13% 6% 21% 11% 5% 34 17 7
Texas Willacy 25% 15% 6% 22% 13% 6% 35 19 8
Virginia 51% 23% 2% 46% 20% 1% 86 31 2
Virginia Accomack 31% 10% <1% 27% 9% <1% 44 13 0
Virginia Gloucester 25% 6% <1% 21% 5% <1% 34 7 0
Virginia Hampton 31% 10% <1% 27% 8% <1% 44 12 0
Virginia Lancaster 23% 4% <1% 20% 3% <1% 31 5 0
Virginia Mathews 25% 6% <1% 21% 5% <1% 34 7 0
Virginia Middlesex 24% 4% <1% 21% 3% <1% 33 5 0
Virginia Newport News 25% 6% <1% 22% 6% <1% 35 8 0
Virginia Norfolk 30% 10% <1% 26% 8% <1% 42 12 0
Virginia Northampton 31% 10% <1% 27% 9% <1% 44 13 0
Virginia Northumberland 22% 4% <1% 19% 3% <1% 30 5 0
Virginia Poquoson 27% 7% <1% 24% 6% <1% 38 9 0
Virginia Portsmouth 27% 8% <1% 24% 7% <1% 38 10 0
Virginia Suffolk 29% 9% <1% 25% 8% <1% 41 11 0
Virginia Virginia Beach 34% 14% <1% 30% 12% <1% 50 18 0
Virginia York 28% 7% <1% 25% 6% <1% 40 9 0
Canada 57% 33% 2% 51% 29% 1% 100 48 2
New Brunswick 38% 9% 1% 33% 8% 1% 57 11 1
Newfoundland and Labrador 30% 18% 1% 26% 16% 1% 43 24 1
Nova Scotia 47% 31% 1% 42% 27% 1% 77 44 1
Prince Edward Island 11% 7% <1% 9% 6% <1% 14 9 0
Mexico 82% 50% 22% 76% 44% 19% 204 83 29
Campeche 52% 24% 6% 47% 21% 5% 89 33 7
Quintana Roo 69% 38% 17% 63% 33% 15% 139 57 23
Tabasco 28% 6% <1% 25% 6% <1% 40 8 0
Tamaulipas 52% 30% 11% 47% 26% 9% 89 43 14
Veracruz 50% 23% 3% 44% 20% 3% 83 32 4
Yucatan 59% 30% 14% 53% 26% 12% 107 43 18
Anguilla 40% 21% 10% 35% 18% 8% 61 28 12
Antigua and Barbuda 32% 17% 8% 28% 15% 7% 46 23 10
Aruba 12% 6% <1% 10% 5% <1% 15 7 0
Bahamas, The 86% 59% 34% 81% 53% 30% 237 106 50
Barbados 32% 7% 2% 28% 6% 1% 47 9 2
Belize 47% 22% 7% 42% 19% 6% 76 30 9
Bermuda 45% 30% 13% 40% 26% 11% 71 42 17
Bonaire 9% 4% <1% 8% 3% <1% 11 5 0
Cabo Verde 19% 3% <1% 16% 3% <1% 25 4 0
Cayman Islands 45% 27% 9% 40% 23% 8% 71 37 11
Costa Rica 6% 2% 1% 6% 2% 1% 8 3 1
Cuba 82% 57% 29% 76% 51% 25% 204 102 41
Curacao 10% 5% <1% 9% 4% <1% 13 6 0
Dominica 38% 16% 8% 33% 14% 7% 57 21 10
Dominican Republic 64% 40% 20% 58% 35% 17% 123 61 26
Grenada 32% 8% 1% 28% 7% 1% 46 10 1
Guadeloupe 39% 21% 8% 34% 18% 7% 59 28 10
Guatemala 43% 17% 3% 38% 15% 3% 68 23 4
Haiti 50% 30% 11% 44% 26% 9% 82 42 14
Honduras 70% 32% 13% 64% 28% 11% 146 46 16
Jamaica 52% 26% 10% 46% 23% 8% 88 36 12
Martinique 39% 13% 5% 34% 11% 4% 59 17 6
Montserrat 30% 17% 6% 26% 14% 6% 43 22 8
Nicaragua 40% 19% 9% 36% 16% 8% 62 25 11
Panama 2% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 2 1 0
Puerto Rico 46% 27% 11% 40% 24% 9% 73 38 14
Saba 28% 17% 7% 24% 15% 6% 39 23 9
Saint Kitts and Nevis 39% 23% 10% 34% 20% 9% 59 32 13
Saint Lucia 46% 12% 4% 40% 10% 3% 73 15 5
Saint Martin 30% 17% 9% 26% 15% 8% 43 23 11
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 46% 10% 2% 41% 9% 1% 74 13 2
Sint Eustatius 28% 17% 9% 25% 15% 8% 40 23 11
Sint Maarten 30% 17% 9% 26% 15% 8% 43 23 11
Trinidad and Tobago 9% 2% <1% 8% 2% <1% 11 3 0
Turks and Caicos 46% 23% 13% 40% 20% 11% 73 32 16
UK Virgin Islands 44% 25% 12% 39% 22% 10% 69 35 15
US Virgin Islands 38% 22% 10% 33% 19% 8% 57 30 12