An internal poll conducted by a Republican super PAC, United 2024, shows the presidential and U.S. Senate races in New Jersey to be within the margin of error, even when in a two-way contest without independent candidates.
The survey is encouraging news for Donald Trump, who has hinted that he might make a play for New Jersey’s fourteen electoral votes, and for hotelier Curtis Bashaw, a moderate running for the Senate seat held since 2006 by Bob Menendez.
Trump leads Joe Biden, 43%-41%, in a two-way race; Trump and Biden are tied at 38%, with 8% going to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and 3% to Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Matt Mowers, a senior strategist for United 2024, said the poll confirms that “voters have soured on the Biden-Harris administration and are ready to punish Democrats running down ballot as a result for their lock-step support of their administration.”
“Joe Biden’s poor standing with voters trickles down ballot,” Mowers said.
Democrat Andy Kim, a three-term congressman and former Obama White House official, leads Bashaw, 35%-33%. Menendez, whose federal corruption trial still has a few weeks remaining, is at 6%.
Without Menendez, Kim leads Bashaw, 41%-39%.
New Jersey voters prefer an outsider to someone with Washington experience by a 44%-30% margin, the poll says.
When voters were asked to put themselves into one of two groups, 54% said their vote would be more affected by border security, crime and affordability, while 47% said they agenda is defeating Trump, defending democracy and protecting abortion rights.
“These poll results underscore a significant shift in voter sentiment towards Republican candidates in New Jersey,” said Mowers. “The favorable numbers for Donald Trump and Curtis Bashaw highlight a clear path to victory in the November election with an investment in the Garden State.”
An independent poll released last week by co/efficient, had Kim ahead by six points against Bashaw in a three-way race, and by seven points without Menendez in the race.
Still, a Trump victory in New Jersey is an uphill fight: New Jersey hasn’t gone Republican in a presidential election since 1988, and Trump lost the state by fourteen points in 2016 and sixteen points in 2020.
New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1972; since then, 48 other states have elected a GOP senator, with only Hawaii going longer than New Jersey.
The poll was conducted on July 1-2 with a sample size of 477 registered voters and a margin of error of /- 4.5%.