Kamala Harris Polling Lead 'Not Real' Says Ex-Obama Aide

Vice President Kamala Harris' polling lead is "not real," according to a former Obama aide who now works as a senior adviser to the Harris-Walz campaign.

David Plouffe, who was a campaign manager for former President Barack Obama, appeared on the latest episode of Pod Save America alongside host Dan Pfeiffer, who served as an adviser to Obama. On the podcast, the two discussed polling and where the presidential race stands.

"There were a bunch of polls, I'd say, in the last month that showed a lead for Kamala Harris that was not real. It's not what we were seeing. We've seen this thing basically be tied, let's say, since mid-September," Plouffe said.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is three weeks away, and it is one of the closest races in recent history.

At the beginning of the election cycle, polls showed former President Donald Trump with a consistent lead over President Joe Biden. However, the landscape shifted when Biden withdrew from the race. Harris' emergence as the Democratic nominee has altered the dynamics, and recent polls indicate a race that is too close to call.

Plouffe and Pfeiffer spoke on a special episode of Pod Save America specifically focused on polling.

In the episode, Plouffe reiterated the closeness of the 2024 race: "From the time Kamala Harris became the nominee, we saw a lot of movement—5, 6 points depending on the state.

"But what we've seen for the last few weeks, and the data's consistent this week, is basically a tied race in seven states, and I don't think that's going to change."

Plouffe is referring to the seven pivotal swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states hold a total of 93 Electoral College votes.

Plouffe continued: "It's 47-48 for each of us. I'd still rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump because I think she's got a slightly higher ceiling, and I think she's got a better ability to win more of the undecideds based on who they are.

"I think Donald Trump is much more reliant on first-time and infrequent voters this time. I think he's got a fragile, mathematical problem there."

"The reality is, Trump barely won in '16, but barely lost in '20. He's a little stronger this time than he was last time, so he's going to get 48 percent of the vote," Plouffe said, adding, "It's going to come down to a very narrow margin."

A number of polls have shown Harris leading Trump, such as a Morning Consult poll conducted between October 4 and 6 that showed Harris ahead by 6 points, 51 percent to Trump's 45. The poll surveyed 11,353 potential U.S. voters.

The vice president was also shown with a 6-point lead in a September 23 poll, conducted after the presidential debate on September 10.

Plouffe maintained that the election is still a toss-up. "This is the race we have. It's the race we expected," he said. "I don't think it's going to open up for either candidate. I think it's going to be close all the way."

He added: "A poll that shows Donald Trump up 48-47 that then shows us up 48-47 is essentially the same thing. This thing's going to be decided on the margins in these few number of states."

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