Half of the shells used by Russia — about three million a year — are being supplied by North Korea, according to western intelligence.
President Putin travelled to Pyongyang earlier this year to sign a defence pact with Kim Jong-un and the Kremlin has become dependent on the shuttered authoritarian state to maintain its advances in eastern Ukraine, intelligence sources say.
Although many of the shells are believed to be faulty, the sheer quantity has allowed Russia to make steady gains, most recently capturing the eastern Ukrainian city of Vuhledar.
Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, warned in September that shipments of North Korean shells were tilting the war in Russia’s favour. “Our biggest problem from all these allies of Russia is from North Korea. Because with the volume of military products that they supply, they actually affect the intensity of the fighting,” he said.
During the initial years of the war, Russia’s allies appeared reluctant to actively supply Moscow with weapons. However, Putin’s efforts to build an anti-western coalition appear to be paying off and are having an impact on the battlefield.
The Times revealed in September that Iran has shipped 200 ballistic missiles to Russia, while China has hosted and assisted a Russian defence company in building long-range drones. Western officials believe there is “clear evidence” that China is playing an increasingly active role.
Despite the recent gains, Russia is suffering a high casualty rate of 1,200 soldiers a day in Ukraine, western officials assessed. It includes 480 casualties a day in the battle for Pokrovsk, the key garrison town in Donetsk that looks increasingly vulnerable to Russian capture.
It also appears that Russian generals are unable to simultaneously reconquer territory around Kursk and seize Pokrovsk without a mass mobilisation, something that Putin appears reluctant to do for fear of a political backlash. “They could mobilise if they wanted to. They chose not to,” a western official said.
The official downplayed the chances of ceasefire talks in Ukraine happening any time soon, despite Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, insisting that he would negotiate a deal to end the war if he wins the election in the United States in November.
“We don’t see any sign of Putin resiling from his principal aim, which is the subjugation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. I can’t see any prospect for a negotiation any time soon,” the official said.
