Premium$5 Billion Per Day Nightmare Looms Amid Rising Risk Of Paralyzing US Port Strikes
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Goldman analysts have created a framework specifying that if the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX)—a coalition of port operators and carriers—fail to reach a new contract agreement in three days (or by the end of September 30), a strike along East and Gulf Coast ports could erupt, jeopardizing $5 billion in daily international trade.
"We analyzed the potential impact to trade value into the East Coast and Gulf Coast Ports if work disruption were to occur (we take no view on the likelihood of any outcome)," Goldman's Jordan Alliger told clients on Thursday.
Alliger continued, noting that "upwards of $4.9bn per day is at risk in international trade along the East and Gulf coasts, along with the potential for supply chains to likely become less fluid due to emergent congestion, which in turn could result in a re-emergence of transport price inflation."