According to data collected from exit polls during last month’s South Carolina primary, only one in three Republican voters in the Palmetto State believe that President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election. That statistic — while alarming — is also unsurprising, as it represents the culmination of a narrative arc advanced by former President Donald Trump for more than four years.

Even before the first votes were cast in 2020, Trump assured his most ardent supporters that he could only lose to Biden if the contest were “rigged” against him. And despite assurances from his own Justice Department that the election was legitimate — along with losing more than 60 legal challenges in the ensuing months — Trump has persistently asserted that Biden’s 74-vote Electoral College win was the result of widespread voter fraud.

As the 2024 election draws near, the extent to which this narrative has taken root among voters raises concerns about how confident Americans are in the legitimacy of our nation’s most essential democratic institutions.

With this in mind, we recently conducted the first in a series of four election-year surveys to gauge voters’ confidence in the electoral process, including whether they trust that the 2024 presidential election will be conducted fairly. Over the course of the year, we will be tracking these beliefs to better understand Americans’ attitudes toward our electoral process, as well as how they’re influenced by factors such as partisanship and social media usage.

Results from the first survey (conducted Jan. 23-27) suggest sharp partisan differences when it comes to American voters’ perceptions of the electoral process.

Most notably, a significant portion of Republican voters continue to express distrust in the integrity of American elections, including doubts over whether their individual votes will be accurately counted in this year’s election.

While a majority of registered voters (63%) believe that Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, only 29% of Republican voters nationwide agree. Conversely, 54% of self-identified Republicans don’t believe that Biden legitimately won the election, while 17% say they are “unsure.”

Two-thirds of voters (67%) say they are at least “somewhat confident” that “this year’s presidential election will be conducted fairly.” However, a majority of registered Republicans say that they are either “not very” (38%) or “not at all confident” (16%) of that.

Three-quarters of registered voters (76%) are confident that their individual votes will be counted accurately this year, though 39% of registered Republicans disagree.

It is important to note that the survey did not ask “Should Joe Biden have won?” but rather if respondents believe that Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. This shows that a significant portion of the electorate lacks some degree of confidence in the democratic process that has facilitated America’s peaceful transfer of power across three centuries.

Among registered independents, who will be critical in deciding this November’s election, 79% are at least “somewhat confident” that their vote will be counted accurately this November.

In regard to the 2020 presidential election, 62% of independents responded “yes” when asked whether Biden legitimately won the election, while roughly one in five (21%) believe he did not.

Combating misinformation about election integrity has proved difficult, but it should be a top priority for election officials at all levels of government moving forward. Regardless of the outcome in this November’s presidential contest, the extent to which American voters trust the legitimacy of the election results will be a crucial indicator of how effectively our democratic institutions can function over the four years that follow.

Savannah Havird (MPA candidate, ‘24) is a graduate assistant and research assistant at the USF School of Public Affairs. Stephen Neely is an associate professor in the University of South Florida’s School of Public Affairs and a faculty senior fellow with the Global and National Security Institute at USF.