Fifty-one days after Gabriel Attal resigned as France's prime minister, Emmanuel Macron finally appointed a replacement on Thursday, September 5: Michel Barnier. But the announcement does not put an end to the political crisis. It paves the way for new questions, in a situation that remains highly uncertain.
Who chooses the ministers?
Article 8 of the French Constitution gives the president the power to appoint members of the government. However, he must do so "on the proposal of the prime minister." In practice, the government's composition is generally the result of a compromise between the two heads of France's executive branch. In this case, they will have to take into account the different political currents present in the Assemblée Nationale, by appointing figures who could guarantee the broadest possible base of support for the new government within the Assemblée, to avoid a motion of no confidence.
When will the ministers be appointed?
There is no formal timetable set out for Barnier and Macron. In practice, a few days generally elapse between the announcement of a prime minister and the forming of their government, to allow time for the interested parties to be contacted and their probity to be verified with the High Authority for Transparency in Public Life (HATVP).
For example, in May 2022, it took four days for Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne to form her new government. Earlier this year, Attal's government was drawn up in two stages: A first list of ministers was revealed after two days, followed by almost a month's wait for the appointments of junior ministers.
In the current situation, it's not impossible that the time needed to form a government could be longer, due to the current political situation. Indeed, Barnier will have to subtly navigate the balances between political factions, to maximize his chances of avoiding being toppled by a very divided Assemblée Nationale.
What happens in the meantime?
Until the new ministers are appointed, the outgoing ministers remain in their positions to manage day-to-day matters, as they have done since the Attal government resigned on July 16.
Can former ministers remain in office?
Nothing forbids the new prime minister from appointing ministers who previously held a government office. The outgoing government includes many members drawn from the ranks of the right, like Barnier, such as Rachida Dati (culture), Gérald Darmanin (interior), Nicole Belloubet (education), Fréderic Valletoux (health), etc. Many ministers in the Attal government have publicly offered to stay on, in the name of stability.
Does Barnier have to deliver a government policy statement?
Although they are under no obligation to do so, it is customary for a new prime minister to appear before the Assemblée Nationale and Sénat to present their key policies, in what is known as a government policy statement.
The Constitution imposes no timetable for this statement. Earlier this year, Attal delivered his government policy statement at the Assemblée only 21 days after his appointment as prime minister. Borne, who was appointed on May 16, 2022, waited 51 days before doing so.
After the speech, the new prime minister can ask for a vote of confidence from the Assemblée Nationale. Yet this procedure is not compulsory: While former premiers Edouard Philippe or Jean Castex asked for a vote when they were appointed (during Macron's first term in office), Borne and Attal, who did not have an outright majority, didn't risk it. Indeed, if the prime minister is rejected by more than half of the MPs, the vote forces the government to resign.
When can a motion of no confidence be tabled?
Even if Barnier does not call for a vote of confidence, MPs still have the option of trying to topple him, under Article 49 of the Constitution. To do this, they first need to gather the signatures of a tenth of the Assemblée's members, to table a spontaneous motion of no confidence – at least 58 MPs out of 577. They are allowed to do so as soon as the Assemblée begins its session, in other words by October 1 at the latest – or even earlier, if Macron calls for an extraordinary session, as has been requested by the Assemblée's president.
Once a motion of no confidence is tabled, a vote is held within the following 48 hours. If an absolute majority of MPs – at least 289 – approve the motion, the government is forced to resign, and the president must appoint a new prime minister.
This scenario is far from impossible, given the configuration of the new Assemblée that is the result of this summer's parliamentary elections. It is fragmented and predominantly hostile to Macron. The Socialists have already announced that they would topple the Barnier government, while the Rassemblement National (RN, far-right) has made its decision conditional on the content of the new prime minister's general policy statement. The presidential bloc and right-wing Les Républicains are expected to support the former European commissioner.
Even if the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance and the RN, with their combined 319 MPs, far exceed the threshold needed to topple Barnier, it is unclear whether they would agree to unite their votes. Indeed, for a motion of no confidence to work, the different opposition blocs must vote for the same motion of no confidence. Over the first two years of Macron's term in office, all 17 motions of no confidence tabled by the left, the far right and the independents of the LIOT group failed, due to the lack of an alliance between these opposition parties, who had, each time, tabled separate motions.
To date, in the history of the French Fifth Republic, only one spontaneous motion of no confidence has been carried through to its conclusion: The one against Prime Minister Georges Pompidou, on October 5, 1962, which passed by 280 votes out of 480. In reaction, President Charles de Gaulle dissolved the Assemblée Nationale, and obtained a stronger majority in the subsequent elections. Pompidou remained in office.