Britain believes that the US could allow Ukraine to use long-range cruise missiles against targets in Russia within weeks.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, and David Lammy, the foreign secretary, will travel to Kyiv on Wednesday for talks over the use of weapons, including British-made Storm Shadow missiles, in what would amount to a pivotal moment in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The US has harboured deep reservations over granting Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles inside Russia because of fears of escalation. They are particularly concerned that Russia could respond by deploying nuclear weapons.
However, British government sources now believe that there could be a shift in the US position before a gathering of world leaders at the UN in New York later this month.
One Whitehall source suggested that parts of the US administration had changed their view but were yet to convince President Biden and others. The head of the CIA, Bill Burns, suggested on a visit to London on Saturday that American thinking may be shifting.
• What are Storm Shadow missiles? The weapons explained
Asked if the US would lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons in its war against Russia, Biden said on Tuesday that his administration was “working that out now”.
Blinken, Lammy and President Zelensky will discuss the issue at a meeting in the Ukrainian capital on Wednesday. Biden and Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, are also likely to discuss the matter when they meet in Washington on Friday.
Although both Britain and France are believed to have been supportive of the use of long-range missiles inside Russia, the Ukrainians are waiting for US permission for technical reasons related to targeting, it is understood.
Britain has supplied Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles, three times the range of the missiles Ukraine has used up to now, but it cannot use them to fire at key targets inside Russia.
The US has provided Ukraine with the longest-range version of ATACMS, a ballistic missile that can travel 190 miles, but again, the Ukrainians are restricted when it comes to their use. Lifting restrictions would allow Kyiv to hit Russian military targets in the major cities of Voronezh and Bryansk, as well as in Kursk.
Vyacheslav Volodin, the Russian parliamentary speaker, warned that the use of long-range western missiles by Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia would force the Kremlin to use “more powerful and destructive weapons” in response. “Washington and other European states are becoming parties to the war in Ukraine,” he said.
Putin said in June that Russia could deploy conventional missiles within striking distance of the US and European countries in retaliation. Moscow has already said it is revising its own rules for the use of nuclear weapons.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, warned the West last week not to underestimate Russia’s willingness to retaliate. “They have a genetic conviction that no one will touch them. This feeling of mutual deterrence — for some reason they are starting to lose it,” he said. “This is dangerous … they shouldn’t joke about our red lines.”
Last week it emerged that Russia had received a shipment of more than 200 ballistic missiles from Iran, which will allow Moscow to hit targets further inside Ukrainian territory, despite warnings from the West about going ahead with such a move.
Speaking at a press conference in London on Tuesday, Blinken called the Iranian move a “dramatic escalation” that would be met with new British, American and European sanctions on Tehran, including the banning of Iran Air passenger flights from British airspace.
Asked about the Ukrainian use of long-range weapons, Blinken said he would ensure that Ukraine was able to be as “effective as possible in warding off Russian aggression”.
He added that the US would “look and listen” to Zelensky, who has repeatedly pushed for permission to use western missiles to strike at targets in Russia, such as air fields that have been identified as key military installations that Ukraine needs to target to protect its citizens.
The supply of Iranian short-range missiles will free up Russia’s arsenal for use far beyond the front line, Blinken said, adding that Russia was sharing nuclear technology with Iran in return. “This development and the growing co-operation between Russia and Iran threatens European security and demonstrates how Iran’s destabilising influence reaches far beyond the Middle East,” Blinken said.
Iran vowed to respond to the fresh sanctions. Foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani described them as “the continuation of the hostile policy of the West and economic terrorism against the people of Iran, which will face the appropriate and proportionate action”.
Kanani insisted that “any claim that the Islamic Republic of Iran has sold ballistic missiles to the Russian Federation is completely baseless and false”.
John Healey, the defence secretary, faced pressure from MPs in the Commons over the Storm Shadow issue on Tuesday, although he refused to be drawn on the matter. He painted a bleak picture of the situation in Ukraine, saying Russia was losing 1,100 soldiers a day on the battlefield — double the casualty rate from this time last year — but has hundreds of thousands more preparing to fight.
Intelligence gathered by military spies has found that as many as 1,100 Russians were being killed or wounded every day during the months of July and August. However, Healey said Moscow was recruiting or conscripting an additional 400,000 additional soldiers this year alone.
Healey said the war was in a “critical moment”, with Russian artillery “out-firing Ukraine by at least three to one” and Ukraine witnessing some of the most intense air bombardments since the start of the war. He said that the longer Ukraine could hold Kursk, which its forces planned to do, then the weaker President Putin would become.
More Russian troops are on their way to the Russian territory captured by Ukraine in an audacious assault last month. Ukrainian military sources said that Putin was not able to use heavy artillery or missiles in the same way he had done in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine because of concerns about killing his own people or destroying Russian infrastructure.
