2020 Arizona General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Key 2020 Races: Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-6 President: 2016: Trump +3.5 | 2012: Romney +9.1
Final 2016 RCP Average: Trump +4.0, Results: Trump +3.5 (Trump -0.5 Behind the Polls)
| pollster | date | Biden (D) | Trump (R) * | spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | — | 49.4 | 49.1 | Biden+0.3 |
| RCP Average | 10/25 - 11/1 | 47.9 | 47.0 | Biden+0.9 |
| NBC News/Marist | 10/29 - 11/1 | 48 | 48 | Tie |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 10/29 - 11/1 | 50 | 47 | Biden+3 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27 - 11/1 | 49 | 47 | Biden+2 |
| Emerson | 10/29 - 10/31 | 48 | 46 | Biden+2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/27 - 10/29 | 45 | 49 | Trump+4 |
| NY Times/Siena* | 10/26 - 10/30 | 49 | 43 | Biden+6 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)* | 10/25 - 10/28 | 46 | 49 | Trump+3 |
2024 Post-Election Polling Analysis
Why Many Were Correct in Thinking Trump Would Run Away With Electoral College Ken Bensinger & Kaleigh Rogers, New York Times
How America’s Accurate Election Polls Were Suppressed in Front of the Election Matt Tabblit, Racket News
What is Behind the Simmering Information War on Polling Salena Zito, Washington Examiner
Poll Data
| pollster | date | Biden (D) | Trump (R) * | spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | — | 49.4 | 49.1 | Biden+0.3 |
| RCP Average | 10/25 - 11/1 | 47.9 | 47.0 | Biden+0.9 |
| NBC News/Marist | 10/29 - 11/1 | 48 | 48 | Tie |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 10/29 - 11/1 | 50 | 47 | Biden+3 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27 - 11/1 | 49 | 47 | Biden+2 |
| Emerson | 10/29 - 10/31 | 48 | 46 | Biden+2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/27 - 10/29 | 45 | 49 | Trump+4 |
| NY Times/Siena* | 10/26 - 10/30 | 49 | 43 | Biden+6 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)* | 10/25 - 10/28 | 46 | 49 | Trump+3 |
| CNN* | 10/23 - 10/30 | 50 | 46 | Biden+4 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/21 - 10/27 | 48 | 46 | Biden+2 |
| OH Predictive Insights* | 10/22 - 10/25 | 49 | 46 | Biden+3 |
| Susquehanna* | 10/19 - 10/22 | 46 | 47 | Trump+1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/18 - 10/19 | 48 | 47 | Biden+1 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/14 - 10/21 | 49 | 46 | Biden+3 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 10/16 - 10/19 | 51 | 45 | Biden+6 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 10/13 - 10/16 | 50 | 47 | Biden+3 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/7 - 10/14 | 50 | 46 | Biden+4 |
| Monmouth* | 10/9 - 10/13 | 51 | 44 | Biden+7 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)* | 10/6 - 10/8 | 44 | 48 | Trump+4 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 10/4 - 10/8 | 50 | 47 | Biden+3 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 10/2 - 10/4 | 51 | 45 | Biden+6 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/29 - 10/7 | 48 | 46 | Biden+2 |
| NY Times/Siena* | 10/1 - 10/3 | 49 | 41 | Biden+8 |
| USA Today/Suffolk* | 9/26 - 9/30 | 50 | 46 | Biden+4 |
| Susquehanna | 9/25 - 9/28 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 9/18 - 9/20 | 49 | 43 | Biden+6 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 9/15 - 9/20 | 48 | 49 | Trump+1 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/11 - 9/17 | 47 | 46 | Biden+1 |
| NY Times/Siena* | 9/11 - 9/16 | 49 | 40 | Biden+9 |
| Monmouth* | 9/11 - 9/15 | 48 | 46 | Biden+2 |
| Gravis | 9/10 - 9/11 | 50 | 48 | Biden+2 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 9/9 - 9/11 | 47 | 44 | Biden+3 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 9/8 - 9/10 | 52 | 42 | Biden+10 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 9/4 - 9/6 | 49 | 45 | Biden+4 |
| FOX News* | 8/29 - 9/1 | 49 | 40 | Biden+9 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 8/21 - 8/23 | 49 | 47 | Biden+2 |
| Emerson | 8/8 - 8/10 | 49 | 45 | Biden+4 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 8/7 - 8/9 | 45 | 44 | Biden+1 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)* | 8/5 - 8/8 | 45 | 46 | Trump+1 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 8/3 - 8/4 | 49 | 45 | Biden+4 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 7/24 - 7/26 | 47 | 45 | Biden+2 |
| CNN | 7/18 - 7/24 | 49 | 45 | Biden+4 |
| NBC News/Marist | 7/14 - 7/22 | 50 | 45 | Biden+5 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 7/10 - 7/12 | 51 | 45 | Biden+6 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 7/7 - 7/10 | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| OH Predictive Insights | 7/6 - 7/7 | 49 | 44 | Biden+5 |
| Gravis | 6/27 - 6/27 | 45 | 49 | Trump+4 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 6/26 - 6/28 | 51 | 44 | Biden+7 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 6/12 - 6/14 | 45 | 44 | Biden+1 |
| NY Times/Siena | 6/8 - 6/16 | 48 | 41 | Biden+7 |
| FOX News | 5/30 - 6/2 | 46 | 42 | Biden+4 |
| CNBC/Change Research (D) | 5/29 - 5/31 | 44 | 45 | Trump+1 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 5/9 - 5/11 | 50 | 43 | Biden+7 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 4/7 - 4/8 | 52 | 43 | Biden+9 |
| NBC News/Marist | 3/10 - 3/15 | 47 | 46 | Biden+1 |
| Monmouth | 3/11 - 3/14 | 46 | 43 | Biden+3 |
| Univision/ASU | 3/6 - 3/11 | 50 | 42 | Biden+8 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 3/3 - 3/4 | 49 | 43 | Biden+6 |
| PPP (D) | 3/2 - 3/3 | 48 | 47 | Biden+1 |
| PPP (D) | 1/2 - 1/4 | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| OH Predictive Insights | 12/3 - 12/4 | 44 | 46 | Trump+2 |
| Emerson | 10/25 - 10/28 | 50 | 50 | Tie |
| NY Times/Siena | 10/13 - 10/23 | 49 | 46 | Biden+3 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 8/13 - 8/14 | 45 | 43 | Biden+2 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 5/1 - 5/2 | 49 | 44 | Biden+5 |
| OH Predictive Insights | 2/12 - 2/13 | 46 | 46 | Tie |
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A Tale of Two Sanctuary CitiesBy the author name Susan Crabtree
"Bond Market Death Spiral" Vance Feared Would Be "Devastating" to TrumpBy the author name Philip Wegmann
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Trump's 'First Term Energy'By the author name Waters & Liddell
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Reversal of Fortune in Homer City: New Project a 'Game Changer'By the author name Salena Zito
Wisconsin Voter ID Win Buoys California GOP ActivistsBy the author name Susan Crabtree
Revealed: Social-Media Millions That Couldn't Sync 'Brat' With 'Democrat'By the author name Lee Fang
Ruy Teixeira Seeks To 'De-Brahminize' the LeftBy the author name Peter Berkowitz
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Interview With Elon Musk and the DOGE TeamBy the author name Bret Baier
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How Los Angeles Is Getting Scorched by Its Homeless ProblemBy the author name Ana Kasparian
Injunction Dysfunction? Trump-Era Judicial Paralysis ExplainedBy the author name Ben Weingarten
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The Only Thing That Will Save Democrats in Age of TrumpBy the author name Mark Penn
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How Biden's Record Crippled the Harris CampaignBy the author name Amie Parnes
A New Beltway Mystery: Follow the Biden EPA MoneyBy the author name James Varney
Newsom’s Wife Recently Partnered With Pro-Transgender Athlete GroupBy the author name Susan Crabtree
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Vibe Shift: White House Says Stock Market ‘Not Driving Force’By the author name Philip Wegmann
Democrats Look Silly and Their Numbers Are Really TankingBy the author name Mark Penn
Trump Addresses Joint Session as Dems Protest His ‘Common-Sense Revolution’By the author name Philip Wegmann
Slotkin: America Needs ‘Responsible,’ Not ‘Reckless’ ChangeBy the author name Susan Crabtree
Steep Increases in Energy Bills Fuel Backlash to Green AgendaBy the author name Susan Ferrechio
Chicago Poll: 80% Disapprove of Mayor Johnson, Crime Top IssueBy the author name Jonathan Draeger
2024 and Harris' Defeat: The Recriminations ContinueBy the author name James Antle
The Vice President Has an X HabitBy the author name Philip Wegmann
Voters Are Reevaluating the Democrats, and They Are FallingBy the author name Mark Penn
Birthright Citizenship Likely To Be Resolved by the Supreme CourtBy the author name Paul Thacker
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Trump Gets Broad Backing for Illegal Immigration CrackdownBy the author name Terry Jones
'The Realignment': GOP Sen. Hawley To Introduce Pro-Union LegislationBy the author name Philip Wegmann
Gallup: More Democrats Say They Would Like Party To Be More ModerateBy the author name Megan Brenan
Scott Presler Keeps His Foot on the Pedal in PennsylvaniaBy the author name Salena Zito
Exclusive: RealClearOpinion Poll, A 2024 Election PostmortemBy the author name Jonathan Draeger
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Democrats Are in Trouble, and They Face Hard Choices AheadBy the author name Dan Balz
A Massive Shift to the Right Over Last Decade on Immigration ViewsBy the author name Harry Enten
The Enduring "c"onservative MajorityBy the author name Sean Trende
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Behind-the-Scenes Aide Narrates Trump's Day One Executive ActionsBy the author name Philip Wegmann
Battle Lines Drawn on Trump's Border CrackdownBy the author name Susan Crabtree
Los Angeles Fires Fuel Petitions Against California Officials By the author name Jonathan Draeger
The Second Era of Trump BeginsBy the author name Philip Wegmann
Inauguration Day Spotlights America's Perpetual PromiseBy the author name Bret Baier
'Don't Know' and 'Nobody' Are the Dem FrontrunnersBy the author name David Paleologos
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The Takeaway
A special edition RCP newsletter that keeps you in the know on all the latest polls this election season.