Politics

Trump leads Biden in five swing states, but race remains tight: poll

By
Diana Glebova
Published May 22, 2024, 11:55 a.m. ET
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Former President Donald Trump holds narrow leads over President Biden in five of the seven swing states likely to decide the 2024 election — but a new poll indicates the race is getting closer.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey released Wednesday shows the 45th president besting the incumbent by seven percentage points in North Carolina (49%-42%) and five percentage points in Arizona (49%-44%).

Trump, 77, also has the edge in Georgia (47%-44%), Pennsylvania (48%-46%) and Wisconsin (47%-46%), but the spread in all three states is within the poll’s margin of error.

voting poll
Biden, 81, won six of the seven swing states from Trump four years ago, with only North Carolina backing the Republican.
US President Joe Biden speaks about the PACT Act, which expands coverage for veterans exposed to toxic substances, at a YMCA in Nashua, New Hampshire, on May 21, 2024.
Biden managed to get traction in several swing states in the last month, according to the poll. AFP via Getty Images

The two presumptive major-party nominees are tied in Nevada at 47% each, while Biden leads Trump in Michigan by a single percentage point (46%-45%).

The same outlet in April showed Trump leading Biden by 10 points in North Carolina, eight points in Nevada, seven points in Arizona, six points in Georgia and four points in Wisconsin. Biden’s lead in Michigan has shrunk one point from the April survey, while Trump’s margin in Pennsylvania has grown by the same amount.

Biden, 81, won six of the seven swing states from Trump four years ago, with only North Carolina backing the Republican.

A plurality of surveyed battleground voters listed the economy as their No. 1 issue (35%), followed by immigration (14%) and democracy (10%).

Nearly half of the respondents (49%) said they worried about violence breaking out around the time of the Nov. 5 election.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump with attorney Todd Blanche speaks to the media during his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21, 2024 in New York City.
Trump only increased his position in Pennsylvania in the latest poll compared to April. Getty Images

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the highest-polling third-party candidate, received 7% support in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Kennedy reached 8% in Georgia and 6% in Wisconsin.

The 70-year-old Kennedy is confirmed to be on the ballot in Michigan and also claims to have achieved access in Nevada and North Carolina as part of his push to be an alternate to Trump and Biden in all 50 states.

Independent Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to attendees during a campaign rally at Brazos Hall on May 13, 2024 in Austin, Texas.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was polling around 7% in the critical swing states. Getty Images

The poll, conducted online May 7-13, surveyed 4,962 registered voters in the seven swing states: 795 in Arizona with a margin of error of 3%, 795 in Georgia with margin of error of 3%, 704 in Michigan with a margin of error of 4%, 459 in Nevada with a margin of error of 5%, 704 in North Carolina with a margin of error of 4%, 812 in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of 3% and 693 in Wisconsin with a margin of error of 4%.