OPEC Sees World Oil Demand Increasing by 1.8 Million Bpd in 2025

World oil demand next year is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day, OPEC said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Tuesday.

OPEC sees the demand for crude oil rising by 1.8 million bpd to 106.2 million barrels per day next year, with the OECD region expecting to see 0.1 million bpd of that 1.8 million bpd growth, and non-OECD realizing the lion’s share at 1.7 million bpd growth.

OPEC’s outlook on 2024 oil demand was unchanged for this month, eyeing a 2.2 million bpd growth rate, to 104.36 million bpd, the report showed.

The largest rate of oil demand increase this year is expected to come from the Middle East and India, which are both expected to see demand increase by more than 4%. The smallest rate of demand growth will be seen in Europe, which is seen at just a 0.19% growth rate. In absolute terms, OPEC estimates show that the largest demand increase is expected to come from China, at 0.63 million barrels per day.

For 2025, demand growth is expected to slow to 1.77 million bpd over the anticipated 2024 levels, with the largest increases again expected to come from China and the Middle East, which are seen accounting for 0.79 million bpd of the 1.77 million bpd total. By 2025, the gap between the world’s first and second largest oil consumers—the United States and China, is expected to shrink to 3.29 million barrels per day. The difference between oil demand in the United States (20.30 million bpd) and China (16.19 million bpd) in 2023 was 4.11 million bpd.

The group’s outlook on oil demand was brought into focus last week when Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company, Saudi Aramco, said it had been instructed by The Kingdom to stop work on its plans to increase its oil capacity to 13 million bpd, instead of keeping it steady at the current 12 million bpd. 

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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