Germany’s military commanders are in hot water again. A supposedly secret conference call between senior officers, leaked by Russian state media, reveals Berlin’s confusion behind the delivery of potentially war-shifting military equipment for Ukraine. The intercepted chat even included a brigadier speaking on an unencrypted phone from a Singapore hotel room and those loose lips will add to allies’ unease about the foot-dragging and incompetence of Olaf Scholz’s government in facing down the Russian challenge.
It was not supposed to be this way. Days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 the German chancellor told his parliament that he would usher in a Zeitenwende (historical turning point) in dealings with Moscow. He promised €100 billion of additional defence spending over five years, enabling Germany to meet the Nato benchmark of 2 per cent of GDP. After a slow start, Germany has over two years of fighting earmarked €17.7 billion for Ukraine, second only to the US in generosity. Ten thousand Ukrainian soldiers have been trained in Germany. Dependence on Russian energy has been reduced.
Yet the European Union’s largest economic power has struggled to deliver. Only under pressure from Poland did Germany undertake to send a mere 14 Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Now the chancellor is holding out against sending Taurus cruise missiles, although they would help to destroy the Kerch bridge which allows the Russians to resupply their invasion force in Crimea. Germany has some 600 of these weapons, about a quarter of which could be sent to Ukraine.
“No one knows why the federal chancellor is blocking the dispatch of the missiles,’’ the head of the German air force, General Ingo Gerhartz, was quoted as saying in a leaked conversation. Other participants warned against German servicemen being stationed in Ukraine to prepare Taurus for use. This was despite British and French servicemen being on the ground in Ukraine, they said, to prepare Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles for use by the Ukrainians. The presence of these personnel, though never denied, was regarded by London and Paris as classified information.
The reluctance of the chancellor to make a move on Taurus derives from two considerations. Firstly, it has been a constitutional taboo to send German troops into a combat zone. At the very least it would require a full-scale parliamentary debate. Secondly, there is a fear that Russia would read the deployment of German missiles capable of hitting deep inside Russian territory as a serious escalation and suck Berlin deeper into war. These inhibitions (shared partly by other allies who have rationed their supply of high-tech weaponry) could come across as a lack of trust in the Ukrainian high command, and as unearned respect for President Putin.
That is almost certainly why the intercept was leaked by the Russians: to eat away at Ukrainian morale and to highlight splits between Nato allies. A comment by Ben Wallace, the former defence secretary, hints at the damage done: “We know Germany is pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence so it just demonstrates they are neither secure nor reliable.” A harsh judgment but one that supports the case that Mr Scholz is auditioning, despite his big promises, to be the weakest link in Nato’s campaign to save Ukraine. Some heads should roll in Berlin.
