Sweden will become the newest member of Nato after Hungary dropped its objections, ending a two-year blockade in the face of a growing threat from Russia.
The historic development marks the end of Sweden’s longstanding neutrality in matters of foreign and security policy which had lasted through two world wars and the Cold War. It could lead to Russia ultimately being encircled by the alliance countries in the Baltic Sea.
While Poland, the Baltic nations, Denmark and Norway have been members of the alliance for years, Sweden and Finland had long insisted on remaining unaligned. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed that in the face of the growing threat posed by President Putin. Both countries applied for membership in May 2022.
Despite resistance from Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, the parliament in Budapest approved the application on Monday after a visit last week by Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish prime minister, when the two countries signed an arms deal.
While acknowledging that “disputes” between the two countries remained, Orban told MPs he expected them to back Sweden joining the alliance. “I ask my fellow lawmakers to approve the legislation on Sweden’s Nato accession in a vote today,” he said.
Speaking after the vote, Kristersson hailed “a historic day”. “The parliaments of all Nato member states have now voted in favour of Swedish accession to Nato. Sweden stood ready to shoulder its responsibility for Euro-Atlantic security,” he said.
Sweden could become an official member of the alliance as soon as Thursday, with a flag-raising ceremony at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels on Friday, according to reports.
Writing on Twitter/X, Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general, said Sweden would make the alliance “stronger and safer”.
He wrote: “I welcome the Hungarian parliament’s vote to ratify Sweden’s membership in Nato. Now that allies have approved, Sweden will become the 32nd Nato ally. Sweden’s membership will make us all stronger and safer.”
Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, said Sweden’s membership of Nato would boost European and global security.
European leaders were meeting in Paris on Monday as a show of resolve to counter growing despondency over the war effort in Ukraine. The meeting, convened by Emmanuel Macron, the French president, was attended by 20 world leaders including Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton, the foreign secretary, and Scholz.
Macron said that the purpose of the gathering was to give Ukraine more “visibility” in the coming months, though it was not expected that leaders would look to table any new proposals as to the problem of the country’s dwindling munitions supplies.
The dire shortage of shells and arms has led to rising pessimism in Europe over Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Russia achieved one of its biggest battlefield victories in months when it captured the eastern city of Avdiivka last week, after a gruelling, months-long siege.
Russian forces have since been pressing on with attacks at other points along the 600-mile front line, seizing small villages in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
It is feared that Kupyansk, an important logistical and railway hub in the Kharkiv region, may be the Kremlin’s next major target. A Ukrainian military official said on Monday that Russian forces were being drawn from across the front line towards the city.
Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s defence minister, has said that the country’s ability to defend its territory was faltering because half of all the weapons promised by western partners failed to reach Kyiv on time.
Before the meeting in Paris, however, Robert Fico, the Slovakian prime minister, who has been staunchly opposed to providing military aid to Kyiv, claimed that several Nato and EU member states were considering the unprecedented step of sending their soldiers to Ukraine.
Sweden’s accession to Nato is a tangible sign of tighter European unity in the face of Russian aggression.
Finland’s application to join was approved last April but Sweden had been kept in limbo for longer because it failed to secure the necessary consent of all members, with Turkey and Hungary demanding further concessions.
President Erdogan of Turkey initially claimed to be concerned about Sweden harbouring members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Turkey has designated a terrorist organisation. Ankara finally budged in January after Swedish efforts to tighten anti-terrorism legislation, with the United States agreeing to a deal on fighter jet sales shortly after.
That left Orban as the only leader objecting, and Hungarian politicians blamed the tense mood between Budapest and Stockholm for the delay. Sweden vocally criticised the state of democracy and the rule of law in Hungary. Orban had accused both Finland and Sweden of “spreading blatant lies about Hungary, about the rule of law in Hungary, about democracy, about life here”.
However, in the face of mounting pressure that came with Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s membership, the Hungarian prime minister appeared to come around, calling on Kristersson to hold a bilateral meeting “to negotiate”. While Swedish officials remained keen to avoid the impression of a climbdown to Hungarian pressure, Kristersson ultimately signalled his willingness to “exchange a few words”.
After the meeting between Kristersson and Orban in Budapest last Friday, both leaders announced an arms deal for Hungary to buy four JAS Gripen fighter jets from the Swedish manufacturer Saab. Orban’s party Fidesz commands a two-thirds majority in the Hungarian parliament.
The military engagement of Sweden and Finland around the Baltic Sea is bound to boost Nato’s presence in the region, while extending its border with Russia. Overall, the two countries’ armed forces will add about 45,000 active-duty troops alongside a sizeable number of reservists to the alliance.
Concerns remain over Russia’s reaction. The Russian embassy in Stockholm said last year that Sweden would “become a legitimate target for Russia’s retaliatory measures, including military ones”.
Given his admiration for Peter the Great, President Putin ought to understand a thing or two about the military threat posed by Sweden.
Russia’s principal adversary during the 17th century was its northern neighbour. “From here shall we strike fear into the Swede,” Peter the Great is supposed to have declared as he looked out across the Baltic marsh that would one day become St Petersburg.
Alexander Pushkin’s poem about the founding of Putin’s home city will no doubt be familiar to the Russian president, who has compared himself to the great imperial tsar. But during his childhood in the city then known as Leningrad, Russia’s historical rivalry with its Baltic neighbour seemed to have been resolved.
Stockholm maintained a large army during the Cold War and sightings of Soviet submarines in Swedish waters would prompt occasional debates about the country’s neutral stance. But Sweden never made a decisive move towards the West and sided with the non-aligned powers. Until now.
The accession of Sweden to Nato is a boon for the defensive alliance. It completes Nato’s chokehold over the Baltic Sea. The incorporation of Gotland, a Swedish island one hundred miles south of Stockholm, into Nato territory presents a geostrategic nightmare for Putin because it makes a naval blockade of Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave bordering Poland and Lithuania, a feasible response to Baltic aggression. The Viking island was demilitarised after the end of the Cold War but Swedish troops returned in 2016.
And although Sweden’s standing army is not as large as it once was, Stockholm spends 2.1 per cent of GDP on defence. The Swedish navy’s three diesel-electric attack submarines, which are accustomed to working in the Baltic’s frigid waters, will be warmly welcomed into the Nato fleet.
Sweden’s accession may benefit Ukraine more immediately. The Swedish-made Gripen, a supersonic fighter jet capable of firing a range of guided bombs, air-to-air and anti-ship missiles, has long been viewed by defence experts as the aircraft most suitable for Ukraine’s needs. The Gripens are designed to take off from roads as well as runways and require only quick maintenance between missions. They would allow Ukraine to hide planes more easily so they are less vulnerable to Russian missile attacks on large airbases.
Sweden has said it will only consider gifting the adaptable Gripens to Ukraine once it has joined Nato.
The intriguing possibility now arises that Ukraine could receive a delivery of both Gripens and F-16s this summer if Stockholm gives the green light. Two years after President Zelensky first pleaded with the West for planes, the dream of Ukrainian pilots flying modern fighter jets seems closer than ever.
