Prime_Services_Weekly_Report_-_1.12.24pdf
Prime_Services_Weekly_Report_-_1.12.24pdf
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  1. Prepared by Prime Brokerage. In evaluating this material, you should know that it could have been previously providedto other clients and/or internal Goldman Sachs personnel, who could have already acted on it. The views or ideas expressed here are those of the desk and/or author only and are not an official view of Goldman Sachs; others at Goldman Sachs may have opinions or may express views that are contrary to those herein. This material is not independent advice and is not a product of Global Investment Research. This material is a solicitation of derivatives business generally, only for the purposes of, and to the extent it would otherwise be subject to, CFTC Regulations 1.71 and 23.605.Source:Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets dataas of12-Jan-24.Past performance is not indicative of future results.All references to "we/us/our" refer to the views and observations of thedesk.1Global Banking & MarketsPrime Insights & AnalyticsPrime ServicesPrime Services Weekly ReportJanuary 12,2024Friday 1/5–Thursday 1/111Key TakeawaysThe GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate2rose+1.39%between1/5 and 1/11(vs MSCI World TR +1.40%),driven byalphaof +1.13%on the back of both long and short side gains and beta of +0.26%(from market exposure). The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate2fell-0.76% between 1/5and 1/11, driven by alpha of -0.80% on the back of longside losses, partially offset by betaof +0.04%(from market sensitivity).Overall book Grossleverage +0.7pts to 267.0%(5-year high) andNet leverage +2.6 ptsto68.8% (79thpercentile 1-year). Overall book L/Sratiorose+1.9% to1.694(8thpercentile 1-year). Fundamental L/S Gross leverage +1.3 ptsto 190.9% (94thpercentile 1-year) and Net leverage +1.6pts to 52.6% (56thpercentile 1-year).Overall Prime book was net boughtdriven by increased gross trading activity, as long buys outpaced short sales (7.7 to 1).Single Stocks and Macro Products were both net boughtand made up 55% and 45% of the notional net buying, respectively.All regions were net bought, led by North America and EM Asia –Chinese equities were modestly net sold for the second straight week.8of 11 global sectors were net bought, led by Info Tech, Industrials, Health Care, and Communication Services, while Financials, Utilities, and Energywere the only net soldsectors. US Health Caresaw the largest net buyingin nearly five months. The sector has been net bought in 4 of the past 5 weeks and is now the most O/W sector vs. SPXon the Prime book. US Financials saw the largest net selling in 16 weeks as earningseason kicksoff.Sources: Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, Reutersas of12-Jan-2024GS EquityFundamentalLong/Short Performance Estimate(Asset Weighted)2GS Equity SystematicLong/Short Performance Estimate(Asset Weighted)2MSCI World TRS&P 500 TREurostoxxNikkei 225CSI 300GS VIP Long7GS VISP Short7GS Most Short7NYSE VolumeVIXSPX Realized Correlation10Y USTWTI FutureGold FutureLevel9851.1910354.694442.2835049.863295.67467.07336.61152.04881.3212.4421.2%4.0%72.022,019.20WoW Chg1.4%2.0%-0.7%5.3%-1.5%3.4%0.4%-2.6%-8.2%-12.0%1.7 pp-0.01 pp-0.2%-1.5%-1%1%3%5%8-Dec13-Dec18-Dec23-Dec28-Dec2-Jan7-JanGS Global Equity L/S MoMSPX MoMMSCI MoMRegionMetricWoWMTDYTDGlobalwAvg1.39%0.41%0.41%U.S.wAvg1.68%0.57%0.57%EuropewAvg0.74%-0.68%-0.68%AsiawAvg0.26%-0.08%-0.08%IndicesSPX TR1.97%0.26%0.26%MSCI TR1.40%-0.35%-0.35%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%8-Dec13-Dec18-Dec23-Dec28-Dec2-Jan7-JanGS Global Systematic L/S MoMSPX MoMMSCI MoMMetricWoWMTDYTDGlobalwAvg-0.76%2.84%2.84%IndicesSPX TR1.97%0.26%0.26%MSCI TR1.40%-0.35%-0.35%
  2. Source:Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets data as of 12-Jan-24.Past performance is not indicative of future results.All references to "we/us/our" refer to the views and observations of thedesk.2Gross and Net Leverage8US Health Caresaw the largest net buying in nearly 5 monthsHealth Carewas by far the most net boughtsector on the US Prime book this week and saw the largest net buying in nearly 5 months, driven by risk-on flows, with long buys outpacing short sales (3.8 to 1).Net buying in Biotech (long buys), HC Equip & Supplies (long buys + short covers), and Life Sciences Tools & Svcs (long buys) outweighed selling in Pharmaceuticals (short sales) and HC Providers & Svcs (short sales).Health Care was the most net bought sector for a 2ndconsecutive week and has now been net bought in 4 of the past 5 weeks.The sector is now the most Over-Weight sector vs. the S&P 500 Index on the Prime book –sitting at +8.7%, which is the most over-weight level in more than five years. Health Care now makes up 21.9% of Overall US Single Stock Net Exposure, which is the highest level in over 5 years. Prime Book –Health Careas a % of Total US Single Stock Net ExposureHFs sold US Financialsat the fastest pace in 16 weeks ahead ofearningsUS Financialswas the most net sold sector on the Prime book this weekandsaw the largest notional net selling in 16weeks, driven by both longand shortsales (2.6to 1).All subsectors were net sold, led in notional terms by Capital Markets(short + long sales), Consumer Finance(long + short sales), and Insurance (short + long sales).The sector was net sold for the4thstraight week and has now been net sold in 6of the last 8 weeks. US Financialslong/short ratio now stands at 1.60, hovering 5-year lows in the 2ndpercentile. The Prime book is now Under-Weight the sector vs. the S&P 500 Index by -3.1%, which is at the lowest level since April 2020 and in the 21stpercentile versus the past five years. Prime Book –US Financials –Cumulative Long, Short, and Net Trading FlowsLeverageOverall Book: GrossOverall Book: NetOverall: L/S RatioFundamental L/S: GrossFundamental L/S: NetFundamental: L/S RatioCurrent267.068.81.69190.952.61.76Current 1-Yr %ile100%79%8%94%56%22%Current 3-Yr %ile100%39%3%98%45%17%Current 5-Yr %ile100%38%2%99%51%22%T12M High267.071.31.82193.156.21.85T12M Low228.763.41.65178.348.81.69T12M Average250.767.41.74186.652.41.78160%170%180%190%200%220%230%240%250%260%270%11-Jan-2311-Apr-2311-Jul-2311-Oct-2311-Jan-24Gross Leverage Overall Book (left)Fundamental L/S (right)40%45%50%55%60%60%65%70%75%11-Jan-2311-Apr-2311-Jul-2311-Oct-2311-Jan-24Net Leverage Overall Book (left)Fundamental L/S (right)
  3. Source:Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets data as of 12-Jan-24.Past performance is not indicative of future results.All references to "we/us/our" refer to the views and observations of thedesk.3Regional Flows and Weightings4The greatest changesin regional trading flows wereinEM, which had long buysof +2.17SDs, andin Asia ex Japan, which had short sales of -1.52SDs.5Sector Flows and Weightings4The greatest changesin sector trading flows wereinStaples,which had long buysof +2.09SDs, and in Utilities, which had short salesof -1.87SDs.5WeightMSCI WorldRegionReturnNorth AmericaUnderweight0.6%1.9%EuropeOverweight-0.3%-0.8%EMNeutral0.2%-0.3%JapanNeutral0.1%3.9%Asia ex JapanOverweight-0.5%-1.7%TotalTrading FlowsLongShortChange-0.220.380.110.63-1.52-0.20Shorting ←→ Covering64.5%16.9%7.9%5.5%5.3%-5.6%3.8%-0.6%-0.9%3.3%in MXWDvs MXWD1.290.062.170.760.751.51Selling ←→ BuyingWeightMXWDSectorReturnConsumer DiscretionaryOverweight-0.3%1.9%Health CareOverweight0.1%1.0%Communication ServicesOverweight0.0%2.3%IndustrialsOverweight0.3%0.6%MaterialsNeutral-0.1%-2.0%EnergyNeutral0.0%-3.0%Real EstateNeutral0.0%0.1%UtilitiesUnderweight-0.1%-1.3%Consumer StaplesUnderweight0.1%0.1%FinancialsUnderweight-0.1%-0.2%Information TechnologyUnderweight0.1%4.0%ETF0.0%0.0%Index0.0%1.1%Trading FlowsLong ShortChange1.921.870.720.600.681.071.72-0.232.09-0.911.880.130.06Selling ←→Buying-1.69-0.840.480.90-0.53-1.19-0.79-1.87-1.710.18-0.870.510.74Shorting ←→Covering11.0%11.6%7.4%10.6%4.3%4.5%2.3%2.6%6.8%15.9%23.0%5.4%4.5%3.8%2.0%0.9%0.4%0.3%-1.1%-4.0%-4.3%-7.7%in MXWDvs MXWD
  4. Source:Goldman SachsGlobal Banking & Markets dataas of 12-Jan-24.Past performance is not indicative of future results.4Sources and Definitions1. Unless indicated otherwise, all data herein is as of 12-Jan-24and based on 5 trading days.The data provided is aggregated informationfrom Goldman Sachs Prime Servicesand should not be relied upon as a comprehensive view of the market.2. GS Proprietary Equity Long/Short Performance Estimatecalculation –the WTD, MTD, and YTD proprietary performance estimates represent weighted averages of fund performance derived from aggregated Goldman SachsPrime Services client cash, equity, synthetic, index and equity options positions for an anonymized basketof Equity Long/Short funds.2a. GS Proprietary Equity Long/Short Performance Estimate calculation –the WTD, MTD, and YTD proprietary performance estimates represent weighted averages of fund performance derived from aggregated Goldman Sachs Prime Services client cash, equity, synthetic, index and equity options positions for an anonymized basket of Equity Long/Short funds.3. Gross and Net Leverageare defined as:a.Gross Leverage –Gross delta-adjusted Market Value divided byNet Market Value plus Net Cash, based on client positions held at Goldman Sachs Prime Servicesb.Net Leverage –Net delta-adjusted Market Value divided by Net Market Value plus Net Cash, based on client positions held at Goldman Sachs Prime Services4. Regional definitions are as follows:a.Asia ex Japan: Australia, China, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan.b.Europe: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Greenland, Guernsey, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Jersey, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UnitedKingdom.c.EM: Afghanistan, Albania, Anguilla, Algeria, American Samoa, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Aruba, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Faroe Islands, Fiji, French Guiana, French Polynesia, French Southern Territories, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guam, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Lithuania, Macao, Macedonia,Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Martinique, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Mongolia, Montenegro, Montserrat, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherlands Antilles, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Norfolk Island, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Reunion, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tokelau, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Turks and Caicos Islands, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela. Vietnam, Wallis and Futuna. Western Sahara, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.d.Japan: Japane.North America: Bermuda, Canada, Cayman Islands, United States, United States Minor Outlying Islands.Sectors follow the MSCI Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) definition.5. Regionand Sector Trading Flow Bars:Trading flows are normalized based on historical 5-day cumulative trading flows. The denominator used to normalize each value is the standard deviation of the 5-day cumulative trading flow for each Region or Sector (long or short), measured on a 12-month trailing basis;e.g. A level of 2.0 for North American longs indicates that this week’s cumulative trading flow for that Region is 2x the standard deviation of 5-day flows for North American longs over the past 12 months.6. Long/Short ratio –defined as delta-adjusted Long Market Value divided by delta-adjusted Short Market Value. This ratio measures hedge funds’ directional exposure to the region, sector, etc.7. The view of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research(GIR).8. Medium-Term Momentum: Model factor representing a stock’s cumulative return over the past year excluding the most recent month.9. Simulated results are for illustrative purposes only. GS provides no assurance or guarantee that the strategy will operateor would have operated in the past in a manner consistent with the above analysis. Past performance figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.10. SystematicL/SManagersbaskettracksadiversified/non-concentratedsetofequitymarketneutral(closeto)managers(nostatarboranyothersystematicsub-strategies).DisclaimersIndicative Terms/Pricing Levels: This material may contain indicative terms only, including but not limited to pricing levels. There is no representation that any transaction can or could have been effected at such terms or prices. Proposed terms and conditions are for discussion purposes only. Finalized terms and conditions are subject to further discussion and negotiation.Certain information included in the Information relies on data from external vendors; Goldman Sachs has not verified such information. Your data may be used along with other client's data on an aggregate and anonymized basis to populate the Information. However, not all clients that use Goldman Sachs as a prime broker are necessarily included in the data set. Additionally, certain data points may not populate if there too few clients' positions that make up such data points. Data utilized in the Information may be derived from a subset of aggregated GS client positions and/or trade activity as well as firm positions and activity. GS makes no representation that this data is inclusive of all positions or activity known to GS and this data should not be relied upon as a full view of market or GS activity/positions.Risk Disclosure Regarding futures, options, equity swaps, and other derivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities and ADRs:Please ensure that you have read and understood the current options, futures and security futures disclosure document before entering into any such transactions. Current United States listed options, futures and security futures disclosure documents are available from our sales representatives or at,http://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/risk-disclosure-for-futures.pdfandhttps://www.nfa.futures.org/investors/investor-resources/files/security-futures-disclosure.pdf, respectively. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, equity swaps, and other derivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities -give rise to substantial risk and are not available to nor suitable for all investors. If you have any questions about whether you are eligible to enter into these transactions with Goldman Sachs, please contact your salesrepresentative. Foreign-currency-denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of, or income derived from, the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies, effectively assume currency risk.
  5. Source:Goldman SachsGlobal Banking & Markets dataas of 12-Jan-24.Past performance is not indicative of future results.5Please refer to https://marquee.gs.com/studio/for price information of corporate equity securities.Notice to Australian Investors: When this document is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ("GSCO"), Goldman Sachs International ("GSI"), Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. ("GSALLC"), or Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte ("GSSP") (collectively the "GS entities"), this document, and any access to it, is intended only for a person that has first satisfied the GS entities that: • the person is a Sophisticated or Professional Investor for the purposes of section 708 of the Corporations Act of Australia; and • the person is a wholesale client for the purpose of section 761G of the Corporations Act of Australia. 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  6. Source:Goldman SachsGlobal Banking & Markets dataas of 12-Jan-24.Past performance is not indicative of future results.6ratings are unregistered unless denoted as being registered. Before using unregistered credit ratings to make investment decisions, please carefully read "Explanation Regarding Unregistered Credit Ratings" (http://www.goldmansachs.com/disclaimer/ratings.html).Notice to Mexican Investors: Information contained herein is not meant for the general public in Mexico. The services or products provided by or throughGoldman Sachs Mexico, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. (GS Mexico) may not be offered or sold to the general public in Mexico. You have received information herein exclusively due to your existing relationship with a GS Mexico or any other Goldman Sachs business. The selection and engagement with any of the offered services or products through GS Mexico will be carried out directly by you at your own risk. Before acting to implement any chosen service or product provided by or through GS Mexico you should consider, at your sole discretion, whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Information contained herein related to GS Mexico services or products, as well as any other information, shall not be considered as a product coming from research, nor it contains any recommendation to invest, not to invest, hold or sell any security and may not be suppliedto the general public in Mexico.Notice to New Zealand Investors: When this document is disseminated in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ("GSCO") , Goldman Sachs International ("GSI"), Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. ("GSALLC") or Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte ("GSSP") (collectively the "GS entities"), this document,and any access to it, is intended only for a person that has first satisfied; the GS entities that the person is someone: (i) who is an investment business within the meaning of clause 37 of Schedule 1 of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (New Zealand) (the "FMC Act");(ii) who meets the investment activity criteria specified in clause 38 of Schedule 1 of the FMC Act;(iii) who is large within the meaning of clause 39 of Schedule 1 of the FMC Act; or(iv) is a government agency within the meaning of clause 40 of Schedule 1 of the FMC Act. No offer to acquire the interests is being made to you in this document. Any offer will only be made in circumstances where disclosure is not required under the Financial Markets Conducts Act 2013 or the Financial Markets Conduct Regulations 2014.Notice to Swiss Investors: This is marketing material for financial instruments or services. The information contained in this material is for generalinformational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, invitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or service of any kind.THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSITUTE, AND IS NOT INTENDED TO CONSTITUTE, A PUBLIC OFFER OF SECURITIES IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE COMMERCIAL COMPANIES LAW (FEDERAL LAW NO. 2 OF 2015), ESCA BOARD OF DIRECTORS' DECISION NO. (9/R.M.) OF 2016, ESCA CHAIRMAN DECISION NO 3/R.M. OF 2017 CONCERNING PROMOTING AND INTRODUCING REGULATIONS OR OTHERWISE UNDER THE LAWS OF THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. ACCORDINGLY, THE INTERESTS IN THE SECURITIES MAY NOT BE OFFERED TO THE PUBLIC IN THE UAE (INCLUDING THE DUBAI INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTRE AND THE ABU DHABI GLOBAL MARKET). THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED BY, OR FILED WITH THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, THE SECURITIES AND COMMODITIES AUTHORITY, THE DUBAI FINANCIAL SERVICES AUTHORITY, THE FINANCIAL SERVICES REGULATORY AUTHORITY OR ANY OTHER RELEVANT LICENSING AUTHORITIES IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT, YOU SHOULD CONSULT WITH A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED TO THE RECIPIENT ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE PROVIDED TO OR RELIED ON BY ANY OTHER PERSON.
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