Nigel Farage has given his strongest indication yet that he could stand again for parliament after a poll suggested he would comfortably win a seat previously held by Ukip.
The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor, suggested that Farage would win 37 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex, beating the Tory incumbent by ten percentage points.
Responding to its findings, Farage said: “I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger. This poll does make me consider getting back on the pitch far more seriously than ever before.”
The poll of 509 people was conducted by Survation between Tuesday and Friday It put Labour third on 23 per cent and the Lib Dems fourth on 6 per cent, with 8 per cent intending to vote for other candidates.
The seat has been held by Giles Watling since the 2017 election but was previously held by Douglas Carswell, who defected from the Tories to Ukip in 2014 under Farage’s leadership. He was re-elected in a by-election in October that year, before retaining the seat at the 2015 general election. It is the only seat that Ukip has won at a general election.
Banks, a close ally of Farage, is attempting to persuade him to return to frontline politics as the head of the Reform UK, of which Farage is honorary president.
Richard Tice, the party’s leader, has left the door open but Farage has said he is still weighing up whether to stand or to limit his campaigning to drumming up support for the party’s candidates. Farage served as an MEP in Brussels for 20 years. He has stood unsuccessfully seven times for parliament.
Banks commissioned the poll with Farage’s blessing and believes Clacton would be an ideal seat for him to stand in, given its past voting record and the fact that 70 per cent of people in the area voted for Brexit. Watling voted Remain.
Farage claimed the poll showed that his appearance on ITV’s I’m A Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here had made a “made a very big difference to those who think about me in a very negative light”, adding: “I think there has been a change of perception about who I am. I think the polling in Clacton reflects that.
“I remember in 2013 when Ukip was on the rise and I was going out around the country relentlessly. I realised the conversations happening among ordinary folk and what was being discussed at Westminster were two different things. The Brexit result in a way proved what I was thinking.
“So obviously I have to look at what Arron has produced for Clacton. I don’t suppose that is the only place that would produce that result and I have to make a huge decision about what I want to do.
“Do I want to be an influencer … or do I want to put my kit on again and get back on the pitch? I haven’t decided, but I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger.”
Banks added: “Nigel has often complained that the first-past-the-post system makes it impossible to compete with the two main parties and despite stunning success with both Ukip and the Brexit Party, that changed the course of history, he has failed to break into the Westminster cartel. Today’s poll shows that the seat of Clacton could change that dynamic.
“By some estimates the national support for Reform would increase to between 15 to 20 per cent, if Nigel returned as leader, winning votes from both parties.”
The poll, which accounts for recent boundary changes to the constituency, found that when respondents were asked to vote for the current candidates, 38 per cent backed Watling, 30 per cent Labour, 18 per cent Reform and 6 per cent the Lib Dems.
But when Farage was added to the poll, the results shifted to 37 per cent for Farage, 27 per cent for Watling and 23 per cent for Labour. Farage’s ten-point lead was significantly outside the margin of error, which is just over 4 per cent.
A third question asked respondents to rank Farage, Watling, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer in terms of favourability.
Survation found that 37 per cent of respondents had a favourable view of Farage, while 33 per cent had an unfavourable view of him. This compared to 23 per cent favourability and 30 per cent unfavourability for Watling, while Sunak scored 21 per cent favourable and 41 per cent unfavourable, and Starmer 15 per cent favourable to 48 per cent unfavourable.
Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder and chief executive of Survation said: “Clacton is fertile territory for Reform, and the party is attracting one quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and one quarter of Leave voters. If, however, Nigel Farage were to stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, he would win the seat from the Conservatives.”
