SPC AC 100051

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

   Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not forecast tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Upper ridge over the southern High Plains remains favorable for
   higher PW air mass to advect across the southwestern U.S. into the
   southern Great Basin. 00z soundings from this region support this
   with modestly steep lapse rates and ample buoyancy for scattered
   thunderstorms, especially from the higher terrain of northern AZ
   into central UT. Lighting may be noted with the stronger updrafts
   well into the overnight hours.

   Low-level warm advection is expected to aid thunderstorm development
   later tonight across the lower MO Valley. High-level diffluent flow
   aloft is expected to increase ahead of a digging upper trough and
   this should encourage elevated convective development immediately
   ahead of a cold front. Forecast buoyancy appears inadequate for
   severe development.

   ..Darrow.. 10/10/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z