Survey of Likely Primary Election Voters

Montana Congressional District 02

Conducted April 15 - 16, 2024
n=415 | ±4.80%
Q1. Partisanship by Response: Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or
Independent?
Freq. %
Republican 323 77.9%
Strongly Republican 185 44.5%
Mostly Republican 138 33.4%

Independent 92 22.1%
Total 415 100.0%

Q2. Vote Method: How do you plan to vote in the June 2024 Republican primary election for President and
Congress?
Freq. %
Vote in-person on Election Day 126 30.4%
Definitely vote in-person on Election Day 90 21.8%
Probably vote in-person on Election Day 36 8.6%

Vote absentee by mail 257 62.0%

Definitely vote absentee by mail 176 42.5%
Probably vote absentee by mail 81 19.5%

Vote early in-person 31 7.6%

Definitely vote early in-person 18 4.4%
Probably vote early in-person 13 3.1%
Total 415 100.0%

Q3. Top Priority Federal GOP Primary: Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in
the Republican primary election for U.S. Congress?
Freq. %
Illegal immigration and border security 176 42.5%
Inflation and economy 93 22.5%
Election integrity 43 10.3%
National security 23 5.7%
Pro-life protections 18 4.3%
Gun rights 17 4.0%
Crime and public safety 15 3.7%
Parental voice in education 5 1.1%
Woke corporations 4 0.9%
Unsure 21 5.1%
Total 415 100.0%

Q4. MT-02 Primary Ballot: Thinking about the June 2024 Republican primary election... If the 2024
Republican primary election for Congress was held today, and you had to vote for one of these candidates,
who would you vote for?
Freq. %
Troy Downing 88 21.2%
Elsie Arntzen 27 6.5%
Kyle Austin 4 0.9%
Ken Bogner 15 3.7%
Denny Rehberg 45 10.9%
Ed Walker 1 0.2%
Stacy Zinn 14 3.3%
Joel Krautter 7 1.7%
Ric Holden 5 1.1%

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 Undecided 210 50.6%
Total 415 100.0%

Q5 - Q7. Images: For each of the following, please indicate if you have heard of the person, and if you have,
whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven't heard of a name, choose so.
Very No
Fav Very Fav Unfav NHO NET Fav
Unfav opinion
76.3% 57.7% 21.6% 17.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Donald Trump 54.7%
317 239 90 71 7 2
41.1% 16.7% 18.7% 8.8% 23.3% 17.0%
Troy Downing 22.5%
171 69 77 37 97 70
37.5% 10.6% 27.1% 13.3% 23.1% 12.3%
Denny Rehberg 10.5%
156 44 112 55 96 51

Q8. Gender
Freq. %
Female 208 50.1%
Male 207 49.9%
Total 415 100.0%

Q9. Age Range

Freq. %
Under 65 197 47.6%
18 - 39 34 8.2%
40 - 49 50 12.0%
50 - 64 113 27.3%

65 and Over 218 52.4%

65 - 74 126 30.4%
75+ 91 22.0%
Total 415 100.0%

Q10. Ideology
Freq. %
Conservative 348 83.8%
Extremely conservative 69 16.7%
Very conservative 172 41.5%
Somewhat conservative 106 25.6%

Moderate 56 13.5%

Liberal 3 0.8%

Unsure 8 1.9%
Total 415 100.0%

Q11. Trump vs Trad GOP

Freq. %
Trump Republican 226 54.6%
Much more a Trump Republican 135 32.5%
Somewhat more a Trump Republican 91 22.0%

Traditional conservative Republican 161 38.7%

Somewhat more a traditional 84 20.2%
conservative Republican
Much more a traditional conservative 77 18.5%
Republican

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 Unsure 28 6.7%
Total 415 100.0%

Q12. Education Level

Freq. %
No degree 268 64.7%
Some high school 9 2.2%
High school diploma/GED 77 18.5%
Technical Certification 36 8.7%
Some college or Associate's Degree 147 35.4%

At least College 144 34.8%

Four-year undergraduate or Bachelor's 87 21.0%
Degree
Graduate degree or further 57 13.8%

Unsure 2 0.5%
Total 415 100.0%

Q13. Primary Election X of 4

Freq. %
0 of 4 28 6.7%
1 of 4 63 15.2%
2 of 4 59 14.3%
3 of 4 84 20.2%
4 of 4 181 43.5%
Total 415 100.0%

Q14. Geo
Freq. %
Helena/West 73 17.6%
Billings/South 205 49.4%
Great Falls/North 137 33.0%
Total 415 100.0%

Q15. Geo - DMA

Freq. %
Helena/West 73 17.6%

Billings/South 205 49.4%

Billings DMA 203 49.0%
Rapid City DMA 2 0.4%

Great Falls/North 137 33.0%

Glendive DMA 10 2.3%
Great Falls DMA 104 25.0%
Minot-Bsmrck-Dcknsn(Wlsn) DMA 23 5.6%
Total 415 100.0%

Q16. Geo - County

Freq. %
Yellowstone 133 32.0%
Cascade 56 13.5%
Lewis And Clark 51 12.4%
Fergus 17 4.1%
Carbon 16 3.8%

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 Richland 16 3.8%
Stillwater 15 3.6%
Broadwater 12 2.8%
Jefferson 10 2.4%
Custer 9 2.3%
Park 8 1.8%
Musselshell 7 1.7%
Hill 7 1.6%
Dawson 7 1.6%
Teton 5 1.2%
Toole 5 1.2%
Rosebud 4 1.1%
Liberty 3 0.8%
Fallon 3 0.8%
Prairie 3 0.7%
Chouteau 3 0.7%
Phillips 3 0.7%
Sweet Grass 3 0.7%
Meagher 2 0.6%
Valley 2 0.5%
Big Horn 2 0.5%
Sheridan 2 0.4%
Carter 2 0.4%
Powder River 2 0.4%
Wheatland 2 0.4%
Other 7 1.6%
Total 415 100.0%

Q17. Gender + Age

Freq. %
F 18 - 39 12 2.9%
F 40 - 49 24 5.9%
F 50 - 64 58 14.1%
F 65 - 74 64 15.4%
F 75+ 49 11.9%
M 18 - 39 22 5.3%
M 40 - 49 26 6.2%
M 50 - 64 55 13.2%
M 65 - 74 63 15.1%
M 75+ 42 10.1%
Total 415 100.0%

Q18. Race from File

Freq. %
White 359 86.4%
Asian 3 0.6%
Hispanic 2 0.4%
Other 5 1.1%
Unknown 48 11.5%
Total 415 100.0%

Q19. Race from File + Gender

Freq. %
White Female 180 43.4%
White Male 179 43.0%
Asian Female 2 0.4%
Asian Male 1 0.2%

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 Hispanic Female 1 0.2%
Hispanic Male 1 0.2%
Other Female 1 0.3%
Other Male 3 0.8%
Unknown 48 11.5%
Total 415 100.0%

Q20. Gender + Education

Freq. %
Female At least College 72 17.3%
Female No degree 136 32.8%
Male At least College 73 17.5%
Male No degree 132 31.9%
Unsure 2 0.5%
Total 415 100.0%

METHODOLOGY
This probabilistic survey was conducted April 15 - 16, 2024, with 415 likely primary election voters. It has a margin of
error of ±4.80%. Known registered voters were interviewed via online panel and SMS. This survey was weighted to the
likely primary election voters universe.

ABOUT THE FIRM

Cygnal is an award-winning international polling, public opinion, and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode
polling, text-to-web collection, and emotive analysis. Cygnal consistently ranks as the most accurate firm, and clients
rely on Cygnal’s ability to create intelligence for action. Its team members have worked in all 50 states and multiple
countries on more than 3,000 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.

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