Joe Biden won in Wisconsin, flipping a state Donald Trump won in 2016.

Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin — where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead — here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. Which means he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's currently leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine's 2nd District.

Christopher It is too early to tell. Milwaukee County -- a Democratic stronghold -- says it won't have results until 5 a.m. at the earliest. Republicans are feeling good about their rural turnout. But Democrats point to Dane County, the biggest pot of votes for Democrats. Biden is on pace to outperform Clinton in Dane County, which has also seen population growth since 2016.

One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. So he has a little cushion there to work with.

Alex's sources are likely right, and it's going to be a long wait. Now that California is in Biden's column, he's at 209 electoral votes, to Trump's 119. Let's assume Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas are going to Trump. Give him Hawaii, Biden needs to find 58 electoral votes somewhere — some combination of Minnesota (10), Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (3), ME-02 (1), NE-02 (1), Georgia (16). He can lose Georgia, but then he needs to win EVERYTHING ELSE if he also lost Pennsylvania.

Getting at the “red mirage” idea, if we don’t get Atlanta and big GA burbs, and some major blue areas of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania it’s easy to see Trump’s lead holding for now or staying closer than they should end up. Same for GA senate races Charlie 

Good evening from the great Midwest. I’m just dying to know whether Team Biden can flip one of the tougher states on their map like AZ, NC or GA. The Biden campaign seems least confident about Florida but seemed to feel pretty good about reclaiming the Blue Wall. I’m also keeping an eye on Wisconsin, a battleground close to my heart (and to my home). Democrats there are feeling good because they ran up such a strong lead in early voting.

Hi everyone from D.C.! I'm watching to see what happens in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest states which seems to be the most crucial for a potential Trump victory given the recent polling and his path to winning in 2016....I'm also watching to see what emerges as the chief issue for voters: the economy (which historically has favored Trump), or his administration's handling of Covid (where he has been far weaker in the polls). And then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. If we do not know the outcome of the election tonight, is he cool, or does he try to claim victory regardless?