Who are the swing voters in America?
We interrogated a dataset of 49,000 people to find out
DURING HIS two previous presidential campaigns, Donald Trump never led general-election polling averages for a single day. In 2016 he pulled within a percentage point of Hillary Clinton in July and September, but trailed in the opinion polls by four on election day. Four years later Joe Biden enjoyed a large, stable advantage over Mr Trump throughout the race, and ended it with an eight-point edge, according to pollsters. In both contests such surveys sharply underestimated the support Mr Trump received on election day, particularly in swing states.
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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “The parent trap”
United States
April 13th 2024
From the April 13th 2024 edition
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America’s poster-in-chief is very, very online
Compared with his first term, Donald Trump writes less about the economy and more about himself
Expect more chaos in Donald Trump’s tariff policies
He will likely zig-zag in response to markets and Republican dissent
Donald Trump hopes to become a one-man deregulator
He wants to revoke federal rules faster than ever but will meet resistance
How Donald Trump plans to ramp up deportations
A gusher of funds from Congress could accelerate removals
How courts might stop Donald Trump’s attack on civil society
A recent unanimous Supreme Court case augurs a showdown