Blacks constitute only 14 percent of the voting age population, but the swings toward Trump are so huge they could decide the election. 
According to a Wall Street Journal Swing State Poll, blacks, especially black males are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.
While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. There isn’t comparable WSJ swing-state polling from 2020, but Trump received votes from 12% of Black men nationwide that year, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate.
That’s an 18 percentage point swing, minimum, for black males, if the national results and the swing state voting is similar.
By confirmed, I mean those who said they intended to vote for Trump.
The gap is even larger if we factor in undecided voters. Biden is down by a massive 30 percentage points vs 2020. I suspect most in that group will end up voting for Biden, but a fair number will vote for RFK, not vote at all, or vote for Trump.
While Black women are less likely than Black men to support Trump, some are exploring other options, including third parties and potentially staying home.
In a sign that Biden hasn’t yet won commitments from many of these voters, some 42% of Black women in the survey fell into a group that the Journal pollsters say are up for grabs in the election, or still persuadable in their vote choice. These voters say they have not yet decided on a candidate, might vote for an independent or third-party option or are likely—but not certain—to back one of the major-party candidates.
While Latino women and Black men in the survey also signaled in large numbers that they remain persuadable in their vote choice, the share of Black women is noteworthy, given that they are among the most loyal Democratic groups in the electorate.
Among women, Trump has picked up five percentage points while Biden is potentially down 16 percentage points.
Powerful Message
A representative for the Trump campaign said: “Our coalition message to Black and Hispanic communities this election is simple: If you want strong borders, safe neighborhoods, rising wages, quality jobs, school choice and the return of the strongest economy in over 60 years, then vote for Donald J. Trump.”
Remove the words Black and Hispanic and it’s a strong message to everyone.
Black Eligible Voter Population
Turnout by Race
Election Math
In the last election, voting turnout from Blacks was 63 percent. That would be 0.63 * 34.4 million or 21.67 million total votes.
In the last election about 9 percent of them nationally voted for Trump (12 percent men and 6 percent women averaged to 9 percent), thus 91 percent for Biden. That’s roughly 19.72 million votes for Biden and 1.95 million for Trump, a net of +17.77 million to Biden.
Now we are looking at about 20 percent going to Trump.
That’s 17.34 million votes to Biden and 4.33 million to Trump for a net of 13.01 million votes to Biden.
Net-to-net, my current projection is a net loss of 4.76 million blacks vs 2020 for Biden.
This was an interesting mental exercise, but it is already reflected in the swing state polls (or should be if the poll is properly weighted) so don’t double count!
What Will Decide the Election?
New Geography claims EVs will decide the election. That’s a reason, but it’s well down my list. What about yours?
On April 7, I asked If Biden Loses the Election, What Will Be the Top Reason?
No poll to date has gotten to the specific point that is most likely to cost Biden the election.
It’s the economy, but specifically housing [rent and housing affordability].
The CPI Rose Sharply in March
The CPI rose 0.4 percent in March. Rent is up another 0.4 percent in March with gasoline up 1.7 percent. Together, the pair was about half of the total rise.
On April 10, I noted The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in March. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 31 consecutive months!
Q: Who is most impacted by sharply rising rent?
A: Blacks and younger voters
Here’s the deal according to the National Association of Realtors.
While the U.S. homeownership rate increased to 65.5% in 2021, the rate among Black Americans lags significantly (44%), has only increased 0.4% in the last 10 years and is nearly 29 percentage points less than White Americans (72.7%), representing the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
If the Fed Cuts Rates Before the Election, Does Biden or Trump Benefit More?
I also discuss home ownership in my Q&A If the Fed Cuts Rates Before the Election, Does Biden or Trump Benefit More?
Meanwhile, please note that on that hot CPI report 30-year mortgage rates shot up to 7.37 percent.
Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?
Finally, please consider my question Fact Check: Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?
Renters, especially blacks and young voters with few assets are likely to say no.
This fully explains all of the polls. Yet Biden and all the economists still cannot figure out why so many people are miserable.
My base case is Trump will win the election as huge percentages of Blacks and young voters drop support for Biden.
It’s sure going to be nice to decenter Democratic feminism!
Black Passport Bros for Trump! 🇺🇸👍🏾
😂 Democrats hate Black men so adios feminist and it’s now Black Passport Bros for Trump 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸👍🏾
Infact we are headed to all the swing states explaining to all black men how the feminist Democrats use them.
As I said to my childhood African American friend the other day; the whole so called migrant illegal disaster came up, I said you just got told to go to the back of the bus all over again but you are to brainwashed to even notice it. Let me know when you wake up. Both him and his girlfriend, also african american, jaws dropped.
The truth hurts and notice i did not say “Black” There are black people in this country from all over the world whose culture they came from has and looks nothing like african american culture here. Which is a plus for them really.
Meanwhile some of the these african american friends have had their grandfather or great grandfather fight in WW2 or the Korean war or even Vietnam. Apparently that counts for nothing these days but keep on foolishly voting democrat my african american friends
Now that BLACK MEN are aware of the democrats plan to destroy them, it will extremely hard for the feminist Democrats to bring them back.
Join the millions of Black Passport Bros during voter registration in swings states. We are headed to Milwaukee and Philadelphia to start.
Black Passport Bros for Trump 👍🏿
Black Passport Bros for Trump
Drizzle drizzle
Biden forgiving another $7.4 billion in student loan debt should put him over the top vis-a-vis Trump.
young people don’t vote in large enough number to help Biden, debt or no debt.
fact.
your forgetting that all the people that dont think they vote, all the people that vote in 2 states and the 3:am mailbox drop off ballots, you know where they actually take a photo(its so they can get paid) all those are Democrat votes
After he forgives the student loan they don’t need to vote for Biden. There are A LOT more people that paid off their own student loans and/or didn’t go to college due to not being able to afford it. Biden is pissing off EVERYONE else that didn’t get their student loan forgiven.
Why would anyone vote for Biden? He single handedly is bringvthe US down to third world status. I guess why he’s so keen on open borders.
To wit,
link to rt.com
I love all these predictions. Let’s look back. Who was right in 2016 and 2020 ? I predicted Trump would win 2016 (I went against the grain and people laughed at me on facebook and here) and Biden would win in 2020 (the Trump cult hated me for this one b/c I actually voted for Trump (albeit in a blue state) in 2016). . This time, despite all the dire numbers and predictions for Biden (if you believe the right leaning WSJ), I predict Biden will win. And it will be because Trump declines in the polls this summer so much so that the Republicans consider an alternative at their conference. This summer is going to be must see TV.
Why will Trump decline in the polls?
Some time ago, I wrote here a prediction that Biden was going to drop out of the race somewhere around the time of the convention. I still believe that, so we’ll see. Now, who would replace him on the ticket? I have several Republican friends (and quite a few independents like me), and the other day I was at one such conservative friend’s house where we talked about it. He’s a die-hard religious conservative who likes to think of himself as a libertarian (he’s not, he’s a conservative). His opinion is that if Biden were to drop out, there is only one person who could replace him – Michelle Obama. His reasoning is that anyone else would piss off the black voters and wouldn’t stand a chance. I’m not so sure, though I understand his reasoning. I still think RFK Jr could steal enough support from either Biden or M. Obama to swing the election towards Trump.
Note: “black voters” are majority made-up of people with white-guilt.
I can see the rats bringing in Newsom. I mean after all just ask anyone, especially from California what a great job he is doing over there……………………………………………………..that last part was sarcasm people
Democrats assume minorities are all on their plantation, but Blacks and Latinos are somewhat culturally rightwing. They go to church, don’t believe in the trans agenda, want big cars and 3 car garage homes like everyone else. They are only “progressive” when it comes to their personal rights. And Trump targets the hardworking, blue-collar minorities very well
Amazing how many white folks just dont grasp that. You are spot on. While sure there is the ghetto influence in the african american culture, the hard working and christian african americans are just what you described. I have childhood friends exactly like that, although only a 2 car garage
An increasing number of conservative Jews, who formerly supported Biden, are voting with their feet also because Biden is putting Hamas first against Israel.
This doesn’t mean that they are going to vote for Trump. They may vote for Kennedy or simply not vote at all but it is another potential nail in Biden’s coffin.
“Biden is putting Hamas first against Israel”
Who are the 3 people giving this an upvote??? Biden giving Israel all the bombs it wanted, getting it past congress by smurfing… And yeah he has to pretend that he’s not the submissive one in the relation with Nethanyahu. Didn’t know people with half a brain would fall for it.
“yeah he has to pretend…”
Didn’t know people with half a brain think they know what others are thinking
I can vouch for that with the conservative Jews I know, all claim to be voting for Trump. One even said no person voting for Biden is welcome in his house.
You can always go back to your east European origins and stay there.
Black people are much smarter than the media pundits give them credit for.
Imagine being an illegal immigrant, risking your family fortune and your life to travel hundreds or thousands of miles to a land of opportunity … only to discover el-presidente el-norte is senile and his staffers are closet marxists. You just risked everything to escape the marxists back in your birth country.
Hispanics want a better life. If they wanted marxism they could have stayed in Latin America.
Marx, like his supporters in Europe and America, was(is) a trust fund baby. Only trust fund babies think marxism is a good idea – because they feel guilty for being parasites.
Everyone else, regardless of skin color, knows there is no free lunch — ESPECIALLY if a politician promises a free lunch.
Karl Marx never worked a day in his life. He was afukingloser, that’s a fact. His biggest achievement was communist manifesto.
I don’t think Marx actually wrote “his” manifesto — he was too lazy and way too disorganized.
Marx and some of his followers had collected a bunch of his rants in a box, and after Marx’s death, one of those followers compiled and edited the rants into marx’s manifesto. Even his manifesto was someone else’s product.
Marx lived his entire life on the allowance he received even as an adult from his capitalist father (who owned a big factory in what is now Germany). Without that capitalist stipend, Marx would have starved to death as a young man. Marx supposedly attempted to hold a couple menial jobs in Paris (this is debated), but was unable to keep any of them (this is not debated). His one and only monetary accomplishment was whining at his father for an increase in his allowance.
Its no wonder that permanent, lifetime academics (kids who don’t want to grow up and enter the real world) are the majority of antifa / marxists. They live off student loans and grants from their parents — parasites.
Not true.
Many folks are raised in poverty but literate enough to read Marx, et al.
Some of them have decided the best way to get even is to steal from everyone else.
You have to factor in the racial strife that will be found and magnified this summer. It’s election time.
this kind of stuff = diminishing returns.
if stoking social division worked, they wouldn’t have to ALSO corrupt our elections operations.
everything they’ve tried RE: stopping Trump, has BACKFIRED bigly.
Counter arguments:
So misinformed
DJT
today its at $32/share
LM2020 is at exactly ZERO
Only about half of the US is very intensely concerned about reproductive rights.
They are the ones that have actual skin in the game.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” – that bald guy with the goatee 100 years ago.
but but but…. black & brown people are progressive!!!! …because… racism!!!!
Family
Faith
Enterprise
Democrats are VIOLENTLY opposed to all three pillars of (formerly) upwardly-mobile social classes.
Seems folks are more interested in eating & education than skin color. MLK Jr. FTW.
I am wondering if the 30% support level is from those that have a complete family. 70% of black families are single parent.
“New Geography claims EVs will decide the election. That’s a reason, but it’s well down my list. What about yours?”
Government and Democrat Party corruption is at the top of my list. Being in California, my vote is nothing more than symbolic, but i will vote – in person – anyway. I read recently that in Fulton County they did no signature validation on mail in ballots in 2020. When the Gascon recall attempt occurred there was a good overage of required signatures, but it was claimed that too many of them were bad, so no recall vote.
The WSJ is definitely the go-to for urban black polls, any Murdoch subsidiary has their finger on the pulse of minorities.
Just ask Dominion Voting Systems
13% of the population will swing the vote? Lol. Women are 51% of the voters and they are pissed at what Arizona just did with abortion rights going back to the 1800s!
I told you republicans couldn’t keep themselves from being stupid.
Even Sean Hannity is desperate for democrats to fix Arizona abortion issue. Trump is suddenly distancing himself from the abortion mess he created.
link to youtube.com
The new “dreamers” are Trump supporters…lol.
See you after election day!
It’s a bit of a crass assumption to believe that women are pro-abortion simply because they’re women. Many women are not pro-abortion.
Crass? Lol. But you are correct, it’s not all women, just enough to defeat every abortion measure in all states where it came up for vote. That’s all it will take to keep donny from winning even if all 13% of blacks vote for donny.
link to nbcnews.com
It’s funny to see little fat donny run from the mess he made….run donny, run…you are going to lose the election to women again.
Since women are already fixing things in various states why would they care at the Federal level since the Federal Government no longer has any control over the issue?
The Democrats have not spoken a word about passing laws / regulations at the federal level regarding abortion. They want nothing to do with such a polarizing issue and are happy to leave it to the States. So why would women vote Democrat over Republican given it won’t make any difference on abortion.
Find some women and ask them. But here’s a hint, it’s not just abortion, there is a pattern of oppression, misogyny and other behaviors that are offensive to women. Your results will vary based on your efforts and since you have to ask the question here, you probably have a long road to walk.
I asked the misses, her mom, my mom. None of them said Republicans have any more or less oppression or misogyny the Democrats. Of course they are going to vote Republican too.
So maybe you are just asking women who are all voting Democrat? Or maybe it’s some secret conspiracy theory you are espousing because I can’t find anything online either.
You keep beating the abortion issue but that’s 2 years ago news now. It’s like having a leaky roof. When everything else in the house is fine, the leaky roof is an issue. But when the house is on fire, the fact you have a leaky roof doesn’t matter because the pressing issue is the fire. Right now inflation and a border crises are raging fires and abortion is a leaky roof. After the fire is out, then you can think about the roof.
You mean like demanding men be allowed in women’s sports and locker rooms?
I have always felt that there were too few women NFL linemen.
NHL players too.
Based upon my vast and accumulated knowledge and experience…
Women find everything about men offensive.
Save for one.
Yes crass, lol. But you’re correct, lol. Abortion “rights” are a hot button for most, lol. But Trump said he will leave it to the states, lol. Oh and, lol, you are funny, lol.
Fucking liberals
Clever election strategy, Appeal to Bronze Age religious nuts, get back in office so you can plank some porn stars.
Mammas are going to spank little donny hard on election day.
Anybody who votes solely on reproductive rights issues isn’t changing their vote, they were blue, are blue, and will stay blue.
They’re also the fringe and the Dem pandering to this fringe has diminishing returns. The Party doesn’t currently have traction on many other issues so the attitude is, “lets play up the one that works to our favor.”
Abortion doesn’t matter to many of us, and for most others, it doesn’t exist in a vacuum, it’s just one of many issues to consider when we make the binary decision on Trump v Biden. Abortion zealots (either direction) won’t be the ones carrying their candidate across the finish line in 2024.
Weird that you think all females side the same way on this issue and that it’s the driving issue for every female. I suspect you’re not female and don’t know many of them.
Weird that you don’t pay attention to election results and simply project your own biases onto the voting electorate. Are blue voters the only ones that have abortions? If you think that you’re detached from reality on so many levels. The issue goes far beyond abortion but some people can’t see it with blinders on….election is only 7 months away, we’ll see how it turns out 😉
If the economy turns south by November it’s curtains for the Democrats regardless of the abortion issue.
“Anybody who votes solely on reproductive rights issues isn’t changing their vote, they were blue, are blue, and will stay blue.”
Concur. It’s almost the functional equivalent of a religion — or a quasi-religious doctrine at least.
I think the statement Trump is saying now (maybe out of convenience) is the best position of the Republican party. Let the voters in each state decide.
Sean Hannity is a douche and I stopped watching Fox years ago. Same garbage as CNN, MSNBC, etc. If you get your news from American TV, you are being blinded by the CIA and Deep State.
Not crazy about Trump, but there was this liberal female doctor walking the streets in Portland and got punched in the face. The video showed her saying “I’m going to vote Republican.” Democrats or Republicans, it’s a Uniparty, but if you are going to vote for Biden (again), then you deserve your chaos America.
LOL
LMAO
YOLO
YMMV
Yikes.
Holy Delusion, Batman.
All but conservative zealots are against what Arizona did. The Republicans are continuing to be their own worst enemy. Not getting the warrant requirement into FISA is gonna keep me voting RFK Jr
Meanwhile in Chicago –
link to secondcitycop.blogspot.com
link to rumble.com
7 months to Chicago Convention. Hot times, summer in the city …
Perhaps…
But Grant Park and Lincoln Park have changed sooo very much.
Sorry mish. It’s a stockholm syndrome-esque mental disease. They ain’t changing their ingrained voting habits just like secular jews ain’t changing theirs
Sure idiot, continue to deny history. Even the most recent swing of Hispanic voters towards Trump over the last 2 elections. Why was this historically “ingrained” sector of voters different. ? You’re in denial that Trump is gaining in almost all parts of the US population… mostly because our current President is destroying the county, and anyone can easily see this.
Stalin’s ‘computer’ will be counting the votes.
Hey Joe. NOWHERE in Mish’s title or my comment was the group Hispanic mentioned.
Learn to fuking read. It matters SIGNIFICANTLY
And you can swallow your own “idiot” comment because it applies
Hank,
It takes time to turn a big ship, but it can be turned. More and more people across the US are realizing that much of what they are being told by the press is simply lies or distortions of the truth. Look at NPR, wondering why they’ve lost so many viewers.
In fact, with my cynicism toward the mainstream press, I would guess that the numbers of black voters moving toward Trump are probably even greater than reported.
I certainly hope you’re correct because it is plainly obvious to anyone paying attention or with their eyes and ears open……. BUT….
Sure there are always some waking up to the things you mentioned. And I believe it’s 10x worse and 10x clearer than most people even admit. But ingrained castes and cultures and following parental and grandparental voting/political views only happens in small numbers. Not enough to move the needle
It’s fascinating that most men I know regardless of skin tone or racial lineage or economic class vote exactly like their parents and their parents before them
As for women, let’s face it. The 19th Amendement turned this all in to a touchy feely emotional mentally diseased liberal dance party and the voting maps of the last 2 Pres elections proves that perfectly
A Tim Scott VP candidate would drive it into the ground and break it off short.
Tim Scott is still in his infancy. Better someone like Rand Paul. He’s not anywhere near his old man, but better than most of the Republicans. Tired of people picking people by race. It should be quite apparent that this is a liberal, deranged formula for destroying the country and people’s pride.
I’d be more convinced if the choice given in the poll were Trump vs The Democrat Candidate because they will not run Joe Depends. Will folks answering Not-Joe finally say Not-Democrat? He won’t be the candidate because the convention won’t nominate him–no amount of “ballot harvesting” will overcome the polling and weakness of candidate. Secondly, he’s clearly not in charge of his faculties enough where people believe he is The Decider, therefore it’s the Democrat policies and outcomes they would be running from rather than Joe Biden. Will that finally be the direction?
Brings back the image of the meme of a blue city burning or other such nonsense where the person is crying out, I need to vote for a different Democrat. That party is on the wrong side of most large issues impacting people’s everyday lives now–that was not always the case.
“Joe Depends”
Bill, you just found a perfect job for the upcoming former-president. Television commercial spokesman, maybe even a model, for Depends. Brilliant!
Unless the DNC changes its convention date it would have no presidential candidate on the ballots in Ohio and Alabama because the deadline to file in those states comes before the national convention is held. Should the DNC submit paperwork for Biden before the convention, it would disenfranchise voters who want a different Democrat. The DNC has backed themselves into a corner on this issue. Even though Democrats are expected to lose red states Ohio and Alabama, the optics of incompetence is pretty awful.
That’s just a technicality. Laws are made to be changed and the Dems and judges will accommodate whatever is needed. Look at prior elections like NJ Senate. Too late to change candidates? Not a problem. Just can’t a judge to approve the change.
The Ohio governor is Republican, and both houses in the legislature have veto-proof Republican majorities. I’m not aware of leanings of judges. The only reason I could see a judge ordering the Sec of State to include Biden on the ballot is if the Gov and legislators passed a candidate registration bill after the DNC announced its convention date.
Dems big talking point is overturn of Roe v Wade
Trump could move needle big time on this issue if he would give support to increasing safety net for Babies being born rather then aborting them.
Woman are still very opposed to killing unborn children. It goes against their very nature and how they are wired.
Woman who get abortions become damaged for remainder of their lives mentally by such a traumatic event.
The stigma for having fatherless children is past. Time to move on from the past as well and embrace Life over Death.
Abortion as standard to apply for any pregnancy that might create some hardship for a Mother is Barbaric in origin.
So will they let Biden run now that his black magic has worn off?
“Black magic has traditionally referred to the use of supernatural powers or magic for evil and selfish purposes.” – Wikipedia.
If twitter had stopped shutting down my private accounts, you’d find I was discussing this back in Trump’s first campaign. Older black men in Baltimore City were very interested in him and they loved him during his first term. It’s only grown.
Its the black women who, by and large, struggle because many are being supported financially by the state and dem politicos and being mislead by the ministers and pastors, that are in the pockets of the same.
Don’t write off this constituency and their ability to change the dynamic.
The George Floyd frenzy couched in ideological fervor, defund the police, watch violent crime skyrocket, disperse millions of undocumented cheap labor, then the coup de grace with inflation and rising unemployment in the black community, while the Admin’s Econs and sbires say all is well, never better! Add to that incompetence and corruption in the media spotlight by black leaders like dear Fani or the BLM crew. Buh bye Joe. One of the reasons they went after Bannon, who bragged about flipping black votes Republican. That people vote in blocks according to demographics remains one the biggest dangers to our so called democracy. That comment will not make the evening news.
Mish, do you REALLY believe that Elections are NOT fixed?
Inflation, border, Genocide Joe… While nothing is certain this far from the election, all these point to a Trump victory. (I note that Trump would not stop the genocide either, but Biden owns it to this point.)
Well, when your winning message is “If you vote for Trump, you ain’t black” as Biden says, perhaps he’s getting what he deserves
Remember when Biden took on Corn Pop? He’s a brave man. /s