New Geography claims EVs will decide the election. That’s a reason, but it’s well down my list. What about yours?
EVs and the Election
New Geography says Electric Cars Will Decide the Outcome of the American Election.
Just last week the administration issued a draconian mileage requirement, one of many ‘nudge’ policies attempting to usher in an all-electric future. Replacing a massive $3 trillion industry with a singular technology represents a severe economic threat under any circumstances, but ramming through changes just as EV sales are slowing is nothing less than madness.
Rarely has a policy brought such negative economic and ultimately political implications. EVs today are simply not practical for most people, unable to afford the higher costs and wary of a charger infrastructure that is far from ready for prime time.
The average price for a brand-new EV is over $60,000, about $12,000 more than the average four-door sedan. Even with tax credits, it is hard to see how consumers come out ahead, at least for now. The electric version of the base version of the Ford F-150 pickup truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, costs an additional $26,000 over the gasoline-powered variety. EVs are not affordable for most Americans: it’s little wonder that only 16 per cent of them are seriously considering a purchase.
Disastrous Energy Policy
It’s true that Biden’s energy policy is a disaster. But right now EVs are more like slow boiling a frog. Most people don’t buy new cars, and most who do, don’t consider EVs.
I agree with the stupidity of Biden’s EV policy, but it won’t decide the election. I have not seen any polls that mention EVs as a reason.
The border and the economy, specifically home prices, are my top two. Israel could easily be ahead of EVs. Heck, what about the botched trump trial in Georgia and overreach everywhere else?
If Recession hits, and it could, move that to spot #1. What about Biden’s Progressive woke madness?
Biden’s ban on natural gas exports could easily cost Biden the state of Pennsylvania. And don’t forget the impact of RFK siphoning off more votes from Biden than Trump.
White House Fact Sheet
On January 26, the Biden-Harris Administration Announces Temporary Pause on Pending Approvals of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports
President Biden has been clear that climate change is the existential threat of our time – and we must act with the urgency it demands to protect the future for generations to come. That’s why, since Day One, President Biden has led and delivered on the most ambitious climate agenda in history, which is lowering energy costs for hardworking Americans, creating millions of good-paying jobs, safeguarding the health of our communities, and ensuring America leads the clean energy future.
Today, the Biden-Harris Administration is announcing a temporary pause on pending decisions on exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to non-FTA countries until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations.
Natural Gas Production
In 2023, the United States leaped over Qatar and Australia to become the largest exporter of LNG.
According to the EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, Pennsylvania is the second largest Natural Gas producer in the US after Texas, and it is the third largest coal producer.
Wall Street Journal Poll
The above clip and the two that follow are from the Wall Street Journal – Targeted Presidential States: March 17 – 24, 2024 Poll.
About 20 percent of those polled do not believe either Biden or Trump are mentally and physically fit to be president. Otherwise, Trump clears the 50 percent mark on the economy, inflation, and immigration.
Biden only attained a single mark, at or above 40 percent. That was a 40 percent mark in Wisconsin for the economy.
Protecting Democracy, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Abortion
Neither candidate scored over 50 percent on Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Abortion, or Protecting Democracy.
Abortion is still a winning issue for Biden, but Trump can easily negate that with a statement that he would stay out of it or better yet, support abortion up to 15 weeks.
Biden is running on a platform of a strong economy that the public does not believe, abortion that will be decided at the state level not by a president, and protecting democracy.
Protecting democracy is not even a winning issue for Biden. With that, let’s return to the economy one more time.
Strength of the Economy
Nationally, it was unanimous, and by large scores, the economy is doing not so good or poor (first horizontal yellow highlight).
Only two states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, had more respondents who said things were worse in their state.
Across the board, more respondents in every state said their economy was getting worse than better. In Arizona and Pennsylvania, the margin of getting worse than getting better was more than 2-1 for getting worse.
It’s the Economy Stupid, But Why?
No poll to date has gotten to the specific point that is most likely to cost Biden the election.
It’s the economy, but specifically housing.
CPI Hot Again Led by Rent
For over two years, analysts said rent was declining or soon would be. But for the 30th consecutive month, rent was up at least 0.4 percent. Gasoline rose 3.8 percent adding to the misery.
Yet Another Groundhog Day for Rent
I repeat my core key theme for over two years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep saying they aren’t.
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in December. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 30 consecutive months!
For discussion, please see CPI Hot Again, Rent Up at Least 0.4 Percent for 30 Straight Months
The “rents are falling” (or soon will) projections have been based on the price of new leases and cherry picked markets. But existing leases, more important, keep rising.
Q: Income keeps rising so why do more people in all the states keep saying things are getting worse?
A: Rent!
Some of “things are getting worse is political. The rest expresses frustration with rent that keeps rising and rising and rising.
Compounding the problem are a bunch of Biden and a pack of clueless economists who keep reporting that rent is falling. Perhaps rent is falling in Austin and other seriously overdeveloped areas, but nationally, rents are still rising.
A decline in Austin isn’t going to do much good for anyone in Pennsylvania or Michigan.
Generational Homeownership Rates
The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report
Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Hits New Record High
On March 29, I noted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Hits New Record High
How many zoomers can afford to buy a home with mortgage rates at 7.0 percent and home prices at a record high?
Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History
On March 15, I commented Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History, May Decide the Election
Economic Reality
Gen Z may be the first generation in US history that is not better off than their parents.
Many have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford a home.
The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is high with younger millennials and zoomers.
This has been a constant theme of mine for many months.
Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar
OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.
However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.
This allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 struggling to make ends meet.
Happiness Age 30 and Below
On March 20, I commented US Drops to Number #23 in the World Happiness Report
For those age 30 and younger, the US fell to spot #62. The US is number 10 for age group 60 and above.
Record High Credit Card Debt
Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.
For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.
For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39
Those struggling with rent and auto loans are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.
The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.
What Will and Won’t Decide the Election?
- For younger voters, and blacks, the economy, specifically housing, will be the deciding issue. Biden may still carry this group, but by far less percentages than in 2020.
- For older voters, especially independents who own their own house, the key factors are likely to be immigration, Biden’s wokeness, and Biden’s age.
- In Pennsylvania, natural gas and energy policy will come into play.
- The abortion issue was a huge loser for Republicans in the 2022 midterms. But given the Supreme Court ruling, the matter is up to states. Trump can lessen the issue more by staying away, or better yet pushing back against more extreme measures.
- Biden is campaigning on a need to “Protect Democracy”. Other than abortion, he has little else. But polls show that is not even a winning issue for him. His extreme woke policies, flouting the Supreme Court, and energy mandates have cost him this issue.
Trump Ahead in Swing States
For more on the recent WSJ poll, please see Trump Leads Biden in 6 of 7 Swings States, Pennsylvania is Key
There has not been a single poll suggesting housing specifically.
Nonetheless, based on the above data, I suggest that it’s the top issue among younger voters and blacks. Generation Z and blacks feel economically left behind, never able to afford a house, with rent jumping every year.
Housing is the single most important issue. Blaming immigration is likely a scapegoat for many.
For independents, a trio of ideas that will make it hard for Biden to win. And finally, RFK is more likely to take votes from Biden than Trump.
EVs are a losing issue for Biden, but dwarfed by a half dozen other items.
If a recession hits, Trump could easily win in a landslide.
I think Trump’s chances are about 75-80 percent if the election were held today.
But it’s early.
Whatever your odds, it’s absurd to propose certainty or near certainty either way.
Terrorism will be the reason Biden loses the election. We are so set to have a big one after millions of wonderful people have ran across the border. People are going to be so mad when they wake up and realize thousands of terrorists have been allowed to enter our country via the southern border.
yes that’s what native Americans said to whites!
and what native americans said to those other native american Comanche.
It won’t matter because the war will be started before the election and/or they will assassinate Trump. The Nutjobs will not squander this Great Reset opportunity.
Pre-2020, nobody would have taken your comment seriously. Pre-2020…
I’m certain the prospects for the U.S. will be worse in 2025 than they are today.
Yield curve inversion is approaching 600 days, not unlike the late 1920s.
Stock market melted up just before a crash, all that’s needed is a spike in oil prices due to geo-political tensions as we move towards a traditional October crash.
The certainty of there being a clear result at all, is worth contemplating… such heightened tensions and polarisation, any kind of “hanging chad” situation risks getting serious quite quickly, and heated rhetoric could spark violence on the streets.
It’s mostly the economy, concerns about Joe’s mental acuity, and a little bit of Gaza, in my humble opinion. Inflation will mean most “independents” will turn away from Biden unless they really hate Trump, and Biden’s age will just add to that. Gaza will mean a small but possibly influential portion of Democrats will not vote in the election, which might be an issue in a few swing states like Michigan.
Why are <30s in Lithuania, Israel, Serbia, Iceland so happy? Only one of those is in the EU, and in the poorer part of the EU. Serbia isn’t exactly a throbbing economic and cultural hub. Iceland is not cheap and tiny. Israel has obvious problems. So why?
If Biden loses the election it would be due to War and a draft, or a material perceived derailing of government subsidies, grants, etc.. Most D voters wouldn’t politically respond to inflation, cost of government or waste, or any unreasonable regulations or hurdles. They would turn-on anybody who isn’t delivering the money.
They say people vote with their emotions, but I think people tend to vote with their wallet, and in the current situation, most people feel quite emotional about what’s happening to their wallets!
ARPA/TACRE comes immedistely to mind also!
Are you serious?!
Every single action TransBiden has taken is to destroy America — part of his END AMERICA Program?!
Bidenomics=Bidenflation
Vote for Joe.
Give Kamala a bigger chance.
Bid=n
Harris
.
Inflation – The cost of everything – food, services, auto insurance, health insurance, home insurance, rent, price of homes
If people understood that WAR always increases inflation AND a goal of the Nutjobs is to reduce the population through WAR, famine, Jabs, etc., to save the planet, then how could anyone vote for Biden, who is a puppet of the Nutjobs. Trump is against war and the gloBull warming BS, which also increases inflation.
If Biden loses (which is very likely) the top reason would undoubtedly be his support for the genocide in Gaza.
The Dem party claims to support human rights and oppose racism which, of course, is a lie – just look at their support for the Gaza genocide.
A good chunk of the Dem voters had bought into the Dem propaganda that they are for human rights and oppose racism. Now, some of them are shocked to see that it is not true! And they never thought good ol’ “Uncle Joe” would be so bloodthirsty. Most of them won’t vote for Trump but some would vote third-party while a majority would just sit it out.
If it turns out to be even remotely close, you’re likely right. Not-Trump-at-any-cost is a pretty solid motivation to go out and vote for many D-leaners. But lots of them, plenty enough to throw the election, simply will not vote for a President OK with sending 2000lb bombs by the thousands, to be dropped indiscriminately on civilians and hospitals with no strings attached whatsoever.
Trump may well landslide the election. Gaza is not the only reason D-leaners are dissatisfied with Biden. In which case Gaza won’t be a make or break. But Biden certainly isn’t being helped by his active complicity in what’s going on there.
I am no fan of Trump or Biden. My gut feel is that Biden will lose because of:
W.T.F. an interesting acronym.
Am old enough to have been in working population when Jimmy Carter was Pres.
Sitting in Gas lines for an allocation based upon even or odd license plate number presents time to reflect upon how that situation occurred.
Watching energy prices soar while watching earning power fail whilst economy tanks creates back-round for that evocative statement W.T.F.
Until now Carter was worst ever compared to likes of what followed.
Would continue to be placing bets as to who is elected in 2024 as pretty much anyone who is conscious is thinking W.T.F.
Carter is looking like Moses on the mountain compared with Biden.
I recall the 70’s, I didn’t think anyone was old enough to also remember those days. Being an adult in 1970, I got the full experience. If a person is only in their 60’s their parents negotiated those tough times.
Was a young Buck in my late 20’s then.
Just had bought a house with a stay at home wife. Got hit with every right hook and double cross uncle Government could throw at me.
Was in housing sector banging nails and along comes Volker to decimate all chance of making a living.
Ended up doing Fire rehabs as that was insurance money and they provided some money to do when there was none available to build.
Scrapped thru it.
Only thing comparable today is all the young people living in their cars.
Well one thing for sure when a person must live in their car they gain a whole nother level of perception about who is lying and who is telling truth. I’d be watching these people as their characters are getting set for Life.
As for college aged dipshits, whining and moaning while their parents pay for or assist their adolescent fantasies in college. Will leave it at that as you know the score.
In truth, presidents have limited influence on economic dynamics (except for crazy things like the covid measures) and economic trends and cycles are longer than election cycles, but that is how people decide their vote: A though there are control dials.
Trump may be thinking (??!!) that people for who abortion forms a single-issue vote are lost to him no matter what he says.
The zionists control this country the media politics and wall street
Try as they might they don’t control Gaza.
Israel gets to massacre again with Trump. Trump will destroy this country with tariffs and alienating the world. the idiot king whose a billionaire many times over can’t come up with 400 million! Europe and Americas time is over and. must share power and can’t take advantage anymore. come.i. peace and equality.
All the above! Such was rather simple to predict, however to survive in ’25 remains to be seen!
Sheer incompetence, but the Border alone, should be enough.
“Sheer incompetence”
That’s too kind of an assessment. The border alone is proof that these things are intentional. Isn’t it naive to think otherwise?
It’s naive to think Biden could plot such a caper. His incompetence clearly shows that.
He’ll lose for the same reason he lost the first time. More people voted for President Trump.
👍
I’m.not.voting for him or is vicious zionist son in law
Biden is a celery stick. The border sucks. The economy sucks if you are in the majority of people who are barely making it. Wait, what was the question?
The border will decide the election. Biden has failed miserably.
“Biden has failed miserably.”
Failed? No, he succeeded brilliantly. His open border policy was and is an intentional act and it continues at this very moment in gaining further momentum. Millions more will cross the border before it is closed (if ever). No, Biden and his allies have seen great success in this treacherous act.
Housing costs rise mostly because of barriers to construction. Those barriers are mostly local zoning and regulations.
A president can do approximately nothing about this. Even state executive actions have failed. Newsom in CA is pushing against zoning, local councils resist. LA’s mayor might have found a way to be useful, by exempting affordable housing projects from most permitting.
We all want to solve housing costs until it means affordable housing in our neighborhood bringing the school ratings down. Biden can’t do anything about this.
Uncle Sam has had plenty of influence on rising housing prices: backstopping low down payment loans, the Fed keeping rates artificially low and buying MBS, moratorium on evictions, etc.
If I was king I’d eliminate all of the above plus I’d eliminate short-term rentals, eliminate corporations and non US citizens from buying houses.
Also closing the borders, and deporting illegals would increase available housing
I knew why Biden wouldn’t get reelected, but I forget it…. Just a moment let me get my teleprompter.
How can anyone take Biden to be a viable candidate? Only presstitutes promote him.
The man belongs in a nursing home.
He didn’t “win” the primaries either, Biden was “installed” which was obvious to anybody that actually watched it happen….
If you live in VT you probably vote dem, and you’ll probably be negatively impacted by having to switch to an EV.
States like Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin are not as Blue but the same applies to those climates.
If your EV is stuck in the snow you could always start a lithium fire to keep warm until help arrives.
Are you better off now then you were 4 years ago?
Which candidate has the most likelihood of making your life improve over next 4 years?
Time to get real in America. As when the Boy cried Wolf one too many times. People understand there is a serious problem and have lost their tolerance any longer to let the Lies go unchecked.
If this were not so then there would be no flood of people out of Blue and into Red states.
You can vote by Ballot,
You can vote with Money.
You can vote with your Feet.
When people vote with their feet things are beyond redemption.
Here’s another point.
Went to local Big Box garden center Friday. people were loading their vehicles with supplies. Geez maybe cost of food has something to do with that.
Went to local Hardware store Saturday, Lot of menfolk there, return of the do it your self-er and time to dust off tool box.
Local Farmers market Sunday quite busy. Great produce at reasonable prices. Farm direct to consumer.
People are being forced to get practical again out of necessity. That will favor that candidate who actually has done something in their life rather then the one which spent 50 years at Government Tit.
It’s hard to understand why anyone would vote for Biden. For some, it must be an anti-Trump vote; for others, it is some kind of credulity or imbecilic reasoning. If Trump had a milder personality, that would certainly help; he is his worst enemy at times.
Unfortunately, you have to be brawler when the entire regime media apparatus, Hollywood, the ivory tower, and everyone in DC and government except the Freedom Caucus are all out to prevent you from disrupting their power level and the status quo. A nice guy or gal just isn’t going to be effective against this much evil.
Biden goes to a millionaires fun raising event in New York City to be toasted by repulsive figures like Stephen Colbert who think Kate Middleton having cancer is a subject for laughter
Trump goes to the funeral of a New York City policeman killed by the woke policies of Biden and his minions.
Regime media would appreciate it if you would stop noticing the things they don’t want you to notice.
Because he really sucks at his job.
Alternative takes:
Name recognition and meaning:
Whose picture do you want on your wall?
Too, what competes with name/face as a determinate? Well, which of those three words does the media you consume least scare you with?
Rents aren’t rising, they are leaping. Once a year, I see an 8% increase in California. Next month is the magic month. I’m in Newport Beach, so that’s not cheap!
PS I firmly believe the FHFA is responsible. Had they capped their conforming loan limit at 2019 levels, all homes would be affordable right now. One rule at one agency has destroyed everything.
Addendum: Fannie and Freddie are 70% of the mortgage market, and they are not allowed to buy loans above the Conforming Loan Limit. It’s a bit of a conspiracy that the Conforming Loan Limit has increased over 50% since 2019 to push up prices, but it is right there in black and white.
Price-fixing is ALWAYS Bad, makes no difference if set too high or too low.
I am witnessing my Dad, at 85, walking around confused and Dazed. He shot me a look when I asked: “Do you think Biden is sharp enough to run the USA?”
He shook his head and said, “No WAY!”
The “protecting Democracy” survey question was a hoot. The “neither” respose should have been over 50, but it wasn’t!
It doesn’t matter who wins the election. Neither candidate will make your life better. Only you can do that.
The Dems can make it a lot worse. Like making you buy a $100,000 electric truck to haul your fishing boat. Can’t they just fucking leave us alone?
Politics f*cks with your brain. Then you say sh*t like that. Grow up. No one is “making you buy a $100,000 electric truck”.
I NEED a pickup, and if this lunatic is re-elected I will eventually have to buy an EV of some sort. Try tuning into some other source for your news besides CNN.
Another politically influenced fool acting like a spoiled child having a tantrum.
I don’t care who wins. I don’t even vote. It’s a waste of my time. It doesn’t matter who wins. Nothing in your life will change.
Wake up. Focus your attention on how to improve your life because neither candidate will.
Politicians are obstacles to be avoided, for sure, and they can throw up obstacles, like lockdowns, sanctions, illegal mass immigration, netzero policies, etc… which make obstacle avoidance that bit harder.
You’re right up to a point, that people have to solve their own problems, but you can’t pretend that politicians don’t cause tangible problems that add to the pile of problems you have to solve.
My own solution has been a long-term one of setting up work that is independent of any country, and leaving my country (not the USA) for somewhere generally easier and pleasant to live in, for those who can generate income independent of it. Obviously most people can’t or won’t do that, and are stuck in the bubble, in the mess, flailing around trying to work out why things don’t work for them so well.
You and I might have figured out solutions, but for many, they can’t even correctly identify what the problem is, and so their attempts at solutions can be painful to watch from afar.
This. Dems forced the criminal mRNA injections on everyone. Dems fired all the first responders and military who stood their ground against their tyranny. Dems are currently presiding over multiple and massive foreign policy failures. We’ve had 25% cumulative inflation under Dark Brandon. America’s cities are decaying fast under Dems. The border invasion could be stopped tomorrow, but Dems won’t allow it. Dems ordered martial law and travel bans.
Most countries did that, and many people could not work as well as travel. It really tested many people in many ways, not least economically.
Best comment here 100%!!!!!!
Yes
Well, for the most part. But if you are draft-age and watching DC neocons push WW3, certain candidates may intensely influence your life.
This is a huge sleeper story, with the Beltway’s pundits/think-tanks/regime-media pushing out trial balloons on resurrecting the draft every few weeks, hoping to get traction. These clods did everything they could to discourage military service and are now livid nobody wants to join and the military is too small to fight their unwinnable forever wars.
Yeah, I mean I don’t want my sons sacrificed for some politician’s idiocy.
Fortunately they have dual nationality of a country that is usually safe and neutral, and far away from the conflict-ridden backwaters of the world.
So buy all the shitcos in the fraud stick market and buy bubbled real estate and be rich like me. You can eat paper and make paper drones if things get bad. Be more like me and stop complaining. Take hold of your destinyyyyy
This country was built by millions of people just like me. People who worked their butts off to build a better life for themselves and those they care about. And in the process of a few hundred years those hard working people built the most prosperous country the world has ever seen. A country that you prefer to sh*t on. It wasn’t the politicians. It was the little people who made America great.
Whiners and complainers like you contribute nothing; other than hate for your fellow Americans.
Go F*ck yourself.
I’m a little person and I didn’t make America great. Little people ride on the coattails of the Henry Fords of this world. The innovators and risk takers make our life better. Some argue Ford created the middle class.
people like me served around the globe for a pittance and THEN worked their butt off missing too much of life too focused on producing and building. And then woke up and realised they despised what they allowed to happen while they were too busy building and decided to speak up. You call it whining. I call it caring about my offspiring and future generations more than myself because selfish pricks like you with your insatiable appetite are one of their biggest problems and their true enemy. I salute you
Dear PapaDave…
They were nowhere near like you.
Most of them weren’t so greedy.
There is always a power distribution (in the mathematical sense), a pareto rule that the 20%-ish minority creates 80%-ish of everthing in any scenario – most people are passengers, or “whiners and complainers”.
“The border and the economy, specifically home prices, are my top two.”
Mine are crime in the U.S. and stagflation, the open border a very close third.
In person voting with valid ID. Kinda like when I rent an old rototiller from the hardware store.
Racist, sexist, anti-gay! Do better! /s
A well Programmed Reply. 🔦✝️
“In person voting with valid ID.”
Valid ID of a US citizen. Californica hands out all sorts of IDs.
Questions for the next US census.
Are you a citizen of the United States of America?
How many citizens of the United States of America reside at this address?
Just so the Americans can keep track of their country.
Inflation is the #1 reason Joe is behind in the polls. Most representatives don’t seem to realize just how much the majority of voters loathe inflation. Voters want prices to go back to where they were a few years ago. Instead, all they get is currency debasers continuing to oppress them, while Joe sits idly by.
The #1 inflation concern is rent. It is an enormous part of anyone’s budget.
“The rent’s too damn high!”
I think its home prices. Most people starting out in life realized they can’t afford a home. Home prices purposely left out of CPI to understate the true inflation numbers. My son is in his twenties, single and works for an investment bank. He makes in the mid 300k income range, and that is is complaint also. Housing unaffordable even to him leading him into financial discontent, making it hard to have a family in NYC. I keep hoping he will find a different job and move back to MI or somewhere more affordable.
If he’s in his twenties he still has time to apprentice as a plumber.
MI needs plumbers.
And he’ll be able to live anywhere.
Street drugs are an enormous part of my budget.
So I’m voting for Joe because illegal drugs have never been cheaper.
But price rises aren’t inflation… it’s other things, policy decisions, creating synthetic scarcity that are driving prices up, like illegal mass immigration, and no new housing to accommodate them; never mind netzero taxes, and sanctions on oil prices.
Inflation, age, Israel.
Yes, and although those having a problem with any or all of that may dislike Trump too, D-leaning voters going 3rd party (or not voting) can be fatal to Joe.
Link to the letter:
link to pocan.house.gov
Hopefully, the Dems who signed the above letter and are up for reelection this year will be (un)voted out of office!
It’s interesting that the letter signees DID NOT choose to include their district/state that they represented.
Let me know who they are so if one if from my district I’ ll vote for them. You never say a conflict you didn’t support. Must be affiliated with the MIC
You’re citing NBC news as a legitimate news source? You’re part of the problem.
wish I could find out where jojo lives- tel aviv. Israeli counterintelligence. jojo is a evil zionist murderous pimple.
I’m not going to give odds, though I think Trump’s chances are greater than 50-50, as long as somebody can control his mouth and social media posts. Interesting, but why do they write “without third parties” when they report polling numbers? There are third-party candidates on all the ballots (at the very least, the Libertarian party is on all the ballots).
Why will Biden lose? Well, simply because he’s a perfectly lousy president (not that Trump was great or anything, but he was better than Birdbrain Biden). Not specific enough? It will likely be the economy (Bill Clinton – it’s the economy, stupid) unless he or his circle are dumb enough to get us directly involved in a shooting war, then that will be the reason (I honestly believe people don’t want us getting involved in somebody else’s war).
I asked my friend Dean this question – he’s literally the smartest man in the world – a human google.
His reply:
“Whoever they want to win.”
It’s all theatre.
We’re the audience.
They’re the actors.
It’s all fake!
Don’t be fooled again.
Polarization is the game.
Fragmented societies are easier to control.
Once everything levels out a bit – a new amplifying or re-polarizing, but always divisive issue is introduced into the (((thunder dome arena))) “where ideologies vie for supremacy.”
Nothing has fundamentally changed in the US in a very long time.
They laugh at how easily we are distracted by their non-sense.
Welcome to the “GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH”
That’s why Russia and China resist our attempts to inset the same mind viruses into their cultures.
some of that is true, but I don’t think they’re competent enough to control everything.
“…EVs will decide the election…”
Bwahahahahaha…..that’s a hoot.
Anybody who owns a trailer hitch will be voting for Trump.
If he loses, the top reason will be the marxists and communist criminals lost their ability or their network to cheat openly and without fear
81 million votes MY ASS
Biden will win 2024 the same way he won 2020. Cheating.
The intentional invasion due to executive orders and refusal to uphold existing law.
Inflation is a close second because that too is intentional and unrelenting.
Biden is an enemy of the US and a puppet of the globalists.
It will be a lot of variables. I’d start with: 1) forced mRNA injections that poisoned and severely injured so many of us including myself; there is no forgiveness for this. 2) Martial law for no reason whatsoever. 3) Endless unwinnable war and catastrophic battlefield defeats across the globe. 4) Runaway deficit spending and inflation dramatically lowering the standards of living for Americans. 5) The southern border invasion. 6) Destroying merit. 7) Waging a deeply unpopular marxist cultural war. 8) Dividing Americans, instead of uniting them. 9) Ignoring the homeless/drug crisis. 10) Prosecution and endless imprisonment for people who have done far less wrong than thousands of Antifa and BLM domestic terrorists who faced no consequences for their actions.
#9 I would say FOSTERING the homeless / drug crisis. Remember, Marxists believe one should never let a crisis go to waste, which implies go create a crisis.
It seems like they are deliberately trying to ruin the country. Their policies make no sense unless you are trying to destroy the country. Also btw don’t forget the illegal weaponization of the justice system against your political opponent.
“It seems like they are deliberately trying to ruin the country. Their policies make no sense unless you are trying to destroy the country. “
They are. Cloward-Piven strategy in real time.
HOW TO PREDICT THE 224 ELECTION
I preface this with five brief points. First is that none of it reflects my politics. I am a former Democrat turned independent. This will be the third consecutive presidential election in which I will not vote for either major party candidate, hoping that eventually one or both parties will nominate someone qualified to be president.
Secondly, the following is not my basic theory. I learned of it 30 years ago in one of the blizzard of financial analyses that crossed my desk as a securities analyst. It intrigued me at the time, and I returned to it as the 2012 election approached.
Thirdly, at the end of this long explanation I will post a link to the data so you can see it for yourself. Fourthly, this indicator won’t work if there is a “black swan” event, such as war, Trump’s conviction and imprisonment, or Biden’s removal on account of death or incapacitation. I would note that the “black swan” of 2020, the covid situation, did not throw it off.
Finally, I will post about this after each month’s UE release between now and at least early July, but will attach this same explanation to each post so I don’t have to rewrite it each time and bore the living shit out of myself as I do so.
. . . .
There have been 19 presidential elections since WW2. In 14 of them, the national unemployment (UE) rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed movement either up or down in the second quarter, i.e. March to June.
In 13 of those 14, the movement predicted the winner of the popular vote in November. If UE fell, the incumbent party’s candidate won. If UE rose, the challenging party’s candidate won. There were 5 elections (1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, 2012) where UE was flat in the second quarter. The incumbent party candidate lost 4 of them. In only one, 2012, did the incumbent party candidate win.
The bottom line is that, for the incumbent party’s candidate to win in November, the UE rate almost always must fall in the second quarter. In only 3 of the 19 elections since WW2 did the direction of UE fail to predict the winner. I will discuss each of those failures below.
. . . .
The purest exception was in 1956, when Dwight Eisenhower was re-elected despite a small (0.1%) rise in UE between March and June of that year. This was likely because there was no trend. In the other 13 election years where UE changed in the second quarter, the movement was part of a trend. In ’56, UE bounced around.
The 2000 election was razor close, and along with 1960 can legitimately be called a statistical tie in the popular vote. The indicator worked in the sense that Bush Jr., the challenger, was elected, and it failed in the sense that Gore won the popular vote by a nose hair.
In 2012, Obama was re-elected even though UE was flat in the second quarter. The reason is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had changed its seasonal adjustment methodology a year earlier. It made the fall of 2011 look stronger than it was, and the spring of 2012 look weaker than it was.
Of those exceptions, only 1956 really challenges the predictive value of the UE rate direction in the second quarter. The other two were anomalies. Those who want to bitch about the Florida situation should stop that. Something similar happened in 1960, when cattle delivered Texas and the Chicago mob and Daley machine delivered Chicago after midnight. Shit happens.
. . . .
But why does this work? The answer is that whether or not someone has a job is a powerful determinant of economic sentiment on Main Street. Much more so than GDP or the stock market. It works on voting behavior with a time lag. This is not a correlation without a cause.
. . . .
Now I turn to this year.
UE for March was 3.8%. It rose from about 3.5% in the summer of 2022 and has been bouncing around between 3.7% and 3.9% since last August. There has been no trend for almost a year. For the indicator to be a solid predictor in its own right, I would need it to move at least 0.2% in either direction between now and June. If it moves more than that, I will make a bet in the election market.
There is another factor that does not show up in the prior numbers, and which is therefore quite tentative on my part. It is the composition of employment, which has shown a significant change compared to 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. It argues against the incumbent party’s candidate, Joe Biden.
In the past 5 years, total employment has been between 155 million and 161 million. The share of part-time workers has risen from 15.2% of the total to 16.8% of the total, or about 3 million people. The question I have been asking is how this might affect Main Street’s view of the economy. Does someone employed part-time have the same optimism as someone employed full-time?
Remember, the reason to even pay attention to any of this is if you believe that economic security on Main Street translates into voting behavior. If part-time workers have less belief in their economic security, it might matter in voting. Not to mention inflation, which anyone who visits a grocery store or gas pump has been seeing.
The rate has come down, but prices are much higher than they were four years ago, and there is more part-time employment. In fact, there has been a net loss of 1.35 million full time jobs in the past year. UE rates have been held down by the growth of part-time employment, usually accompanied by lower benefits.
Will this plug into that predictive indicator? If so, to what degree? I can only guess, and mine is that if UE falls between now and June it will temper any upside for the incumbent, i.e., Biden. If UE rises, I think it will add to the upside for the challenger, i.e. Trump.
. . . .
Bottom line to me is that if UE is 4% or higher in June (the number will be released in early July), Trump will be elected if there isn’t a “black swan” event. If UE is 3.6% or lower, Biden will win, but not by much unless it’s a good deal lower, such as 3.5% or 3.4%.
Keep in mind that these are small percentages of a very large number, i.e. roughly 161 million employed people. It doesn’t take much change to move the needle. Oh, and one other thing. The indicator determines only who wins the popular vote, not who is elected or the victory margins. The campaigns do that.
The best example there is 2016, where the indicator correctly forecast Hillary Clinton’s victory in the popular vote. It was her campaign that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by focusing on the wrong states at the end. I end by quoting the ragin’ Cajun James Carville from 1992:
”IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!”
link to data.bls.gov
Voter turn-out (in my eyes) is the BIG driver in your correlation. After a hard Tuesday’s work, i just don’t feel like going to the polling station.
Voter turnout has varied in every election, and has never affected the predictive reliability of the indicator.
The fundamental problem is the lack of a credible alternative. Whoever wins, some unpopular steps have to be taken (as usual) and Biden is rightly taking them. It looks like the Trump disaster will be averted but can the Republicans move fast enough to reform, sack the idiots and put in some one like Liz Chaney or, dare I say it, Taylor Swift. Or will a completely new party emerge in time? I think not. By the next round all the Boomers will have died off and we might see that the Dems are the new Conservatives and a some real change in the form of a totally new, reformed, brand emerges to represent upcoming middle aged America.
Liz Cheney…….. or Taylor Swift. Are you fuking concussed or do you just intentionally choose to be retarded?
Taylor Swift would definitely win!
“It’s her turn!” -regime media, probably…
Taylor Swift – P. Diddy ticket.
I believe that the VP pick will carry more weight this election than in previous matchups. Both Biden and Trump could die during their term and people are talking about that here. Kamala Harris is a no go for everyone that I’ve talked to. I would like to see Tulsi on the ticket.
Trump should pick Stormy Daniels.Then she won’t testify against him.
LOL!!!
The communist emoting boot licker Albert is back
Trump/Daniels. It has a nice ring to it. Then both parties’ VP’s would be whores.
Nah, he should get Biden’s daughter as his VP and just post her diary on her web page.
The only time when the VP pick mattered since WW2 was in 1960. LBJ’s machine stole Texas by means of civic minded cattle that cast Democratic votes. Along with the Daley machine and the mob that together delivered Illinois after midnight, Kennedy stole the tightest election in American history.
For my money the tightest was Bush/Gore because it took a few weeks to figure out who won based on hanging chads in Florida.
If you look back now at Nixon/Kennedy and look at them both on TV clips, Nixon was wildly unprepared for the new medium that would decide elections. Kennedy on the other hand was smooth on TV. A similar thing happened in 2016 when Trump was smooth on social media while Hil-liary was wildly unprepared for the new medium that mattered.
The 2000 popular vote was tight, but the 1960 popular vote was the tightest in American history. If you doubt that, then look it up for yourself. The rest is supposition and opinion. I am citing hard fact. After the ’60 election, Mayor Daley promised to recount at the rate of one precinct a day. Now go check how many precincts there were then, and ask yourself it it would have mattered.
JFK would have been better off with Marilyn Monroe as VP.
JFK would have finished his term and been re-elected had he not appointed his brother as attorney general, and had that brother not gone on a tear against organized crime. The murders of JFK, Oswald, and RFK were classic mob hit jobs, right smack out of The Godfather. That there was ever any debate about it shows just how easy it was to gaslight the public.
Trump should designate Jared for washroom attendant at his casinos for the term, kind of a Freddo thing, and have Vivek keep an eye on Ivana in the meantime.
“Every time Trump makes an important decision the last person whispering in his ear is Jared Kushner” – Ritter. That’s why the compromised ACB is on USSC and not Judge Nap, for starters. Same reason Assange wasn’t pardoned.
VP DeSantis. You don’t got to like him, but just compare him to Kamala Harris. Just think “President Kamala.” That would be the end of the US of A.
Inflation.
Well first of all, Biden will not lose the election. The Intel/Security State Blob will not let that happen.
But lets assume for the sake of argument that the entire vote counting operation has not been suborned by the Dark Powers.
My own personal reason the very evil Biden Entity would lose would be for trying to force an experimental, untested and frequently lethal gene therapy injection into 80% of the country without informed consent in contravention of the Nuremberg Protocols.
But if somehow the Biden Entity were to be allowed to lose, maybe because the Dark Powers are planning a major depression starting next year and thus they can blame it on Trump if he is in office, the main reasons will be two. 1. The open border allowing too many illegal immigrants in and 2. The young voters appalled by his support for Israel
Wrong, demented Biden will lose is my prediction. And if Biden wins then we are doomed. Civil War could be a distinct possibility. The majority of the population that still have critical thinking skills are not going to take 4 more years of outright insanity coming from the Biden cartel.
Roto, you’re right on. Biden can only win through voter fraud, again. And most honest Americans are sick of these theatrics. And push just might come to shove.
I vote for a national divorce, amicable of course.
And as to why Biden will win, become familiar with substack.com/@omega4america
Most vote fraud is still basically old-fashioned ballot stuffing. The call goes out to pre-arranged electoral precincts, “We need 500 here, we need 750 there” and so on. This has been going on for a long time. In 2020, Trump won by a larger amount than expected, and so when the calls went out, the numbers were so high they had to shut everything down and fill out ballots for hours, many with zero downballot votes cast–an obvious tell.
Anyway, there comes an extreme where it just isn’t possible. If precincts have 3x their total populations voting for Biden, even the media and courts will be forced to admit the truth (maybe).
Yes, that’s why PA was out so long on election night in 2016: the actual votes overwhelmed the fraud.