For the last three years, the Port of Baltimore has led the nation in imports of passenger vehicles, ... [+]
The Port of Baltimore is the nation’s leading port for the nation’s leading import — passenger vehicles.
In the wake of a container ship striking and knocking down the Francis Scott Key Bridge early Tuesday morning, that trade is likely to be disrupted for some time.
The Port of Brunswick, Ga., is the most likely port to handle the largest percentage of those Baltimore automotive imports, though Newark and Jacksonville are good candidates as well.
Baltimore, which for the first time in 2023 finished among the nation’s top 20 airports, seaports and border crossings for the value of its total trade, is closed to ship traffic for an undetermined length of time. It ranked ninth among just seaports.
The accident’s repercussions would have been less significant a decade ago. Its growth over the last decade has been at twice the rate for U.S. total trade, 54% to 21%, and more than three times the rate for imports, 73% to 20%.
That is due, in part, to that passenger vehicle trade. No other U.S. port has handled more than 10% of all U.S. imports the last three years.
Finding a new entry point is not as simple as pulling into the nearest seaport.
That is because, unlike the container ship that struck the bridge, the ships that transport cars and similar vehicles are specialized “Ro-Ro” ships.
Container ships are those most commonly seen in photographs, with thousands of multi-colored containers stacked high, wide and deep on the top of ships. By contrast, the ships that transport passenger vehicles open downward from just below the deck to allow the vehicles to “roll on and roll off” from where they are stored — hence the moniker Ro-Ro.
Because they are specialized ships, not every port is equipped to handle them.
While four of the top five seaports for U.S. passenger vehicle imports in 2023 were East Coast ports, including Baltimore, Brunswick’s top import partners align most closely with those of the Port of Baltimore.
This chart shows all ports — including border crossings — that handled passenger vehicle imports in ... [+]
That does not mean that some additional vehicle traffic won’t find its way to the Port of Newark or the Port of Jacksonville. Or that it might divert Mexican traffic to trucks and the Texas border, particularly Port Laredo, or even to PhilaPort, another leading vehicle-import port.
In addition to the question of when the bridge can be rebuilt or, more accurately, when traffic can resume at the Port of Baltimore — a difficult question to answer — another question is much simpler: How much cargo was or will be lost from the ship that struck the bridge, whether because of damage, spoilage or other cause?
It’s just an educated guess but I am guessing the answer is not much.
Here’ why: Like many U.S. seaports, the Port of Baltimore’s trade is imbalanced in favor of imports. Baltimore’s rapidly growing imports, however, exacerbated that imbalance. While the U.S. average is 60% of all U.S. trade was an import in 2023, the total at the Port of Baltimore was 73%.
Given that, it was not immediately clear how many of those containers were loaded with exports and how many would have been so-called “empties” that would be returned to Asia and elsewhere to be loaded with containers filled with products.
Here now is a quick look at where the ports of Baltimore, Brunswick, Newark and Jacksonville — and where their passenger vehicle imports originated in 2023:
Port of Baltimore
Germany, the largest source of passenger vehicles by value, has lost market share in recent years ... [+]
In 2023, the Port of Baltimore ranked first in the nation with 11% of all imports by value. Just as importantly, its total among seaports was 16%.
Almost 70% of all Port of Baltimore imports came from the top four trade partners in 2023. Germany, which accounted for as much as 32% of the total in 2015, still ranks first but its share has shrunk to 24%.
Mexico has grown from less than 7% to almost 18% in that time. The United Kingdom’s share has also shrunk, from almost 18% to slightly more than 10%. Fifth-ranked Slovakia’s market share has increased from zero to just under 7% in that time.
Japan has remained relatively constant, with slightly less than 18% of the total in 2023.
Port of Brunswick
The Port of Brunswick aligns more closely with the Port of Baltimore than any other port, despite ... [+]
The Port of Brunswick accounted for 8.5% of all U.S. imports in 2023, 12% of that that sailed the seas.
Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and Mexico ranked second through fifth among Brunswick’s top trade partners — lining up nicely with the Port of Baltimore — with South Korea fairly dominant as the top importing partner. It accounted for almost 31% of the Brunswick traffic, less than 1% of Baltimore’s.
Port of Newark
The Port of Newark, while led by Japan, an important source of vehicles for Baltimore, also has a ... [+]
The Port of Newark was at 5.7% of the U.S. total in 2023, 8.3% of just the seaports.
It imports are dominated by those coming from Japan, which accounted for better than 40% of the total in 2023. Italy is second at 14%. Among Baltimore’s top import partners, only Germany accounts for more than 10% of the total in Newark, after Japan.
Nevertheless, Japan and Germany are two important sources for the Port of Baltimore and could easily shift to the New Jersey seaport.
Port of Jacksonville
Japan, Germany and Mexico — all important to Baltimore — are the three most important sources of ... [+]
The Port of Jacksonville, or JaxPort, which is just across the Georgia-Florida border from the Port of Brunswick, accounted for 5% of the nation’s total in 2023, 7.3% of the seaport trade.
Like Newark, its imports in 2023 were dominated by Japan, at better than 42%. Germany, Mexico and Slovakia did rank second through fourth, accounting for almost 47% of the total — and those three are important for Baltimore.
