‘Nothing has changed about our policy’

With help from Nahal Toosi, Alex Ward, Erin Banco, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman

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What a week this Monday has been — not only for NatSec Daily, but National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY, too.

Shortly after 11 a.m. this morning, the veteran spox found himself fielding a litany of questions from reporters insisting that U.S. policy toward Israel has changed after Washington abstained from voting on a non-binding U.N. Security Council resolution, which explicitly called for a cease-fire in Gaza, as Eric and MONA ZHANG report.

It’s a rare abstention, as Washington normally acts as Israel’s protector on the council. But it’s not a change in the Biden administration’s stance toward its ally, Kirby insisted, though several on the call weren’t buying it.

“Nothing, nothing has changed about our policy. Nothing,” Kirby said, repeating that sentiment seven times throughout the gaggle. He emphasized that point from the White House podium this afternoon as well.

Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU almost certainly disagrees, as made evident by his cancellation of a trip by top Israeli officials to Washington this week, who were slated to discuss potential alternatives to a major invasion of the southern Gazan city of Rafah.

It’s easy to see how the public, too, would think otherwise. The decision of the U.S. to abstain, rather than veto the resolution, is Washington’s sharpest action to date at the United Nations against its ally. On Friday, a U.S. resolution to call for a cease-fire and condemn Hamas for its actions was blocked by Russia and China, but today’s vote didn’t criticize the militant group. It did, however, link the cease-fire to a hostage release deal for the rest of Ramadan.

Kirby stood his ground, noting that today’s resolution still calls for releasing the hostages and alleviating the suffering of Palestinians in the territory: “Those are the same principles that we’ve been arguing for now for many months.” It just doesn’t condemn Hamas, the main reason Washington refused to vote for it.

Washington is also having “candid, frank conversations” with Israel about the need to protect civilians during the military operation and allow humanitarian assistance to enter the Gaza Strip, Kirby said.

“You can do two things at the same time,” he added.

He was also asked more broadly whether U.S. policy toward a Rafah invasion has changed. Weeks ago, the White House said it won’t support a major invasion if Israel doesn’t have a plan to protect civilians.

Kirby said that the Biden administration still wants alternatives “to a major ground offensive because we don’t believe that a ground offensive in Rafah is the right course of action.”

Asked if that meant the Biden administration means an invasion shouldn’t be undertaken at all, Kirby responded: “Again, no shift in our policy … We still believe the same thing. I don’t see any change in the rhetoric there.”

An hour later, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told reporters that “any type of ground operation” into Rafah similar to the widespread operations conducted in northern Gaza would be a mistake.

The vote and its aftermath has made a fundamental disconnect clear: Israel remains focused on its full-blown military operation, believing the U.S. must help Israel succeed in its mission. President JOE BIDEN wants Israel to scale things down, and seems increasingly willing to push Israel to do so.

Public pressure from Israel and many American lawmakers, pulling the administration in different directions, is making that an increasingly trickier balancing act.

The Inbox

GALLANT GALLOPS ON: Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT — who landed in Washington today as part of a separate trip — will still meet with top U.S. officials today and tomorrow.

That roster included national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, and CIA chief WILLIAM BURNS. Those talks are now likely to be decidedly more tense.

“We have no moral right to stop the war while there are still hostages held in Gaza. The lack of a decisive victory in Gaza may bring us closer to a war in the north,” Gallant said in a statement, referring to heightened tensions with the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group.

Even before today’s storm, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, in an interview a day before Gallant landed in the DMV, set the tone for the week ahead.

Asked if there will be consequences should Israel invade Rafah, she replied: “I am ruling out nothing.”

EYE ON ISLAMIC STATE: The U.S. warned Russia in the last several months about potential attacks from militants associated with ISIS-K — the terrorist group responsible for the assault on the concert hall in Moscow on Friday that killed more than 110 people, two intelligence officials familiar with the outreach told our own ERIN BANCO.

The warnings came amid increasing concern in the U.S. intelligence community that ISIS-K was looking to expand its operations, soliciting recruits to carry out attacks on major global powers, including those in the west. Russia acknowledged the warnings, the officials said.

Over the last several years, the group has primarily focused its operations in places where it has a deep bench – countries such as Afghanistan and Iran. But intelligence officials say the group is increasingly ambitious, looking to recruit and carry out large-scale operations in other parts of the world.

The U.S. is vigilantly monitoring the Islamic State’s activities, Kirby told reporters today: “We don’t see any sort of credible threat by ISIS to the American homeland. But again, not something we’re taking for granted,” he added.

A Russian court on Sunday ordered pre-trial detention until May 22 for the four men accused of carrying out the mass shooting.

The Kremlin today declined to comment on whether the four men accused of committing Friday’s attack in Moscow had been tortured, after the suspects appeared in court with visible signs of having been beaten, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports.

YELLEN’S TRAVELS: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN will travel to China to meet with members of the country’s senior leadership in April, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN and PHELIM KINE scooped on Saturday.

IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil.

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP TALKS ISRAEL: Former President DONALD TRUMP urged Israel to continue its mission to defeat Hamas, but warned that it would lose international support if the operation continues for too long.

“You have to finish up your war. To finish it up. You gotta get it done. And, I am sure you will do that. And we gotta get to peace, we can’t have this going on,” he told Israel Hayom’s OMER LACHMANOVITCH and ARIEL KAHANA.

He then struck a tone similar to what the Biden administration has said: “Israel has to be very careful, because you’re losing a lot of the world, you’re losing a lot of support, you have to finish up, you have to get the job done. And you have to get on to peace, to get on to a normal life for Israel, and for everybody else.”

Keystrokes

CYBER-SPACE THREATS: Russia’s push to put an anti-satellite nuclear weapon in space has been worrying Washington for weeks. But there’s a far more immediate threat that could damage satellites with far less effort: cyberattacks, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports.

That concern is increasingly pushing the White House and Capitol Hill to take action to counter the digital threats in space, particularly as satellites play a growing role in the conflict in Ukraine.

Hackers can upload malware to satellite terminals that gives them control of the devices, shuts them down or cuts off communication with the ground. A cyberattack could even force a satellite to overheat until it explodes in a “kinetic boom,” according to Col. JENNIFER KROLIKOWSKI, the former chief information officer for Space Force’s Space Systems Command.

Any widespread attack against satellites could take down everything from GPS navigation to text message services to weather forecasting — and hackers could achieve that without a huge budget or years of expertise.

Read: UK accuses China of cyberattacks on British democracy by our own ANDREW McDONALD and STUART LAU

Listen: Chinese hackers and the Rubik’s Cube: One-on-one with CISA Director JEN EASTERLY on the POLITICO Tech Podcast

The Complex

TOKYO SHIFT: Biden and Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA are expected to announce what could be the largest change to Washington’s East Asia command structure in decades next month, Reuters’ TIM KELLY, YUKIKO TOYODA and LAURA SANICOLA report.

“Washington will consider appointing a four-star commander to oversee its forces in Japan as a counterpart to the head of a proposed Japanese Self Defense Forces headquarters overseeing all of the country’s military operations,” the outlet writes.

The commander could lay the groundwork for a unified U.S.-Japanese command, but some American officials want whoever’s in charge to only be responsible for information sharing, training and joint exercises, a person familiar with the plans told Reuters.

NO MOVEMENT IN NIGER: There’s been no change to U.S. troops’ force posture in Niger, following pressure from the ruling military junta to push out American forces, Pentagon spokesperson Ryder said.

“Right now, they are there and monitoring for any force protection,” Ryder told reporters today, adding that there’s still about 1,000 American troops there.

Read: Congress approved $300M for Ukraine last week. The Pentagon spent it 4 months ago by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and PAUL McLEARY

On the Hill

UKRAINE AID AFTER EASTER: House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL expects the House will take up Ukraine aid after Easter, he told CBS’ MARGARET BRENNAN on Sunday.

He acknowledged Speaker MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.) is facing pressure from the right, especially in the wake of Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) ’s filing of a motion to vacate on Friday. But McCaul maintained that “[Johnson is] committed because he understands national security –- he leans on, you know, myself, the Chairman of Armed Services, House Intelligence for advice on this. And he knows how important this is.”

NEW CHINA COMMITTEE CHIEF: Rep. JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.) will replace MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) as the new chair of the House committee investigating the Chinese Communist Party, according to our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA.

ICYMI — DOJ review argues compliance changes curbed misuse of 702 spy tool by our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS (for Pros!)

Broadsides

SANCTIONS AGAINST CHINESE HACKERS: The Biden administration unveiled sanctions targeting a China-based company that Treasury said was affiliated with cyberattacks against critical U.S. infrastructure, our own MICHAEL STRATFORD reports (for Pros!).

The company served as a front for a state-sponsored hacking group as well as two Chinese nationals affiliated with the company. The Chinese state hacking group targeted U.S. infrastructure in the defense, information technology and energy sectors, officials said. Treasury said the group was able to access, for example, a defense contractor that manufactured flight simulators for the military and a Texas-based energy company.

The new sanctions, a joint action with the U.K. government, are being billed by Treasury as a response to “malicious cyber operations” that directly endangered U.S. national security.

The sanctions come as the Department of Justice also sanctioned and charged seven hackers with ties to the Chinese government, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The hackers are accused of “targeting U.S. and foreign critics, businesses and political officials in furtherance of the PRC’s economic espionage and foreign intelligence objectives,” according to a DOJ release accompanying the indictment.

MORE MIGRATION WOES: Mexican President ANDRES MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR laid out a laundry list of prerequisites on Sunday that the U.S. must satisfy if it wants to mitigate migration, especially ahead of an anticipated spring surge.

In an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes, Mexico’s populist president called on the Biden administration to lift sanctions on Venezuela, end the embargo on Cuba, provide poor Latin American and Caribbean countries with billions in aid and grant amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants from Mexico already in the United States. If the White House fails to do so, Lopez Obrador warned, “the migrant flow will continue.”

The comments come as the Biden administration appears to be stalling on a string of executive actions to curb migration at the southern border, our own MYAH WARD reports.

Administration officials are still weighing new actions, but a downtick in migration numbers following a record-breaking number of illegal crossings in December has reduced the sense of urgency to address the issue. Yet, a Gallup poll released last month suggests that immigration has overtaken the economy as the most important issue for voters ahead of the November election.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SULLIVAN’S CRAPPY DAY: A person tossed manure in front of natsec adviser Sullivan’s house in Washington this morning, a law enforcement official told our DANIEL LIPPMAN.

It’s unknown at this time who did the tossing. The official said a small amount of manure was thrown from the window of a car around 8:20 a.m. and a suspicious item protocol was set up by the U.S. Secret Service, which called local police leading to the city cleaning it up.

The incident is the subject of an ongoing investigation, according to the official. Traffic and red-light cameras are nearby which may help find the culprit. A spokesperson for the Secret Service declined to comment on the nature of the substance. A spokesperson for the NSC referred questions to the Secret Service.

Transitions

— Israeli Conservative Minister GIDEON SAAR resigned today, and his party will leave Netanyahu’s emergency government.

— Boeing CEO DAVID CALHOUN today announced he would leave the company, the latest fallout for the planemaker amid multiple federal probes into its practices following a 737 MAX door blowout in January, our own ORIANA PAWLYK reports. The aerospace company also announced that STANLEY DEAL, the head of Boeing’s commercial airplanes, would retire. STEPHANIE POPE, the company’s chief operating officer, will replace Deal effective immediately. Calhoun will exit his position by year’s end.

— Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Policy SASHA BAKER is departing the Pentagon to spend more time with her family, our own LARA SELIGMAN scoops.

— DIPALI MUKHOPADHYAY has been appointed as the Afghanistan War Commission’s newest commissioner. She currently works as an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

What to Read

— GLENN GERSTELL and ANDREA MCFEELY, Defense One: How to keep China out of the Pentagon’s weapons

— ERICA LONERGAN and MARK MONTGOMERY, Foundation for Defense of Democracies: United States Cyber Force

— GIDEON RACHMAN, Financial Times: Ukraine, Gaza and the rise of identity geopolitics

Tomorrow Today

— Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: A free and open economic order and Japan’s vision for the global south

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Scaling AI-enabled capabilities at the DOD: government and industry perspectives

— Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: The Israel-Egypt peace agreement 45 years on: where do relations stand in the wake of the Gaza war?

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Germany’s nuclear choices: disarm or proliferate?

— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 10:30 a.m.: Leadership in national security with Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH

— American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 11 a.m.: A book discussion on “We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War”

— Government Executive Media Group, 11 a.m: State of the Navy with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI

— Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: A forum on U.S.-Vietnam relations with Vietnamese Minister of Foreign Affairs BUI THANH SON

— Arab Center, 11:30 a.m.: The impact of the Gaza war on the U.S. presidential election

— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12:30 p.m.: Myanmar in crisis: human rights, regional impacts and future prospects

— Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, 1:30 p.m.: BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), ports, and debt: getting the China facts straight

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Understanding China’s regionally administered totalitarianism

— Washington Office on Latin America, 2 p.m.: Violence, security and the search for justice in Venezuela

— Center for a New American Security, 2:30 p.m.: Autonomy and international stability: confidence-building measures for uncrewed systems in the Indo-Pacific

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3 p.m.: Transatlantic public opinion on the war in Ukraine

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 5 p.m.: Russia has re-elected Putin. What next?

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who vetoes all of our impeccable NatSec Daily ideas.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who rarely wavers from our side.