In the Old Days… Today would have been easy in the old days, where we got a summary of projections (aka “the dot plot”) and no press conference. The bond market (and stocks) both interpreted the “unchanged” in median for dots for 2024 as a sign that the Fed was committed to 3 cuts. Two things immediately popped out to me: The average went from 4.7% to 4.81% as the distribution changed dramatically. Only 1 person thought there should be 4 cuts, as opposed to December when 5 thought there should be more than 3 cuts (including one member who ... Post FOMC Thoughts