By: Mark Glennon and John Klingner
It will take a mighty big change of fortune for the electric vehicle (EV) industry to meet Illinois’ goal of one million EVs on the road in Illinois by 2030.
Gov. JB Pritzker repeated that target last week, but trends are pointing somewhere else.
The hard numbers are EV registrations in Illinois, published by the Illinois Secretary of State. For the most recent 12-month period, Illinois added just 32,478 vehicles to its EV registration rolls. That’s 8,120 per quarter.
But to reach the target of one million by 2030, that number would have to increase to about 34,000 per quarter — a four-fold increase, as shown in this chart:
Those numbers may be generous because they assume that all registered EVs will stay on the road through 2030. More importantly, in the latest quarter, new EV registrations dropped to just 4,997, well below the average for the year of 8,120 used above to calculate the needed 4X improvement.
The recent drop in the quarterly increase in EV registrations no doubt reflects the new reality for EVs, which was summed up in a CNBC article last week headlined, “EV euphoria is dead. Automakers are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.” From that CNBC article:
Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford, General Motor, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar, Land Rover and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.
Even U.S. EV leader Tesla, which is estimated to have accounted for 55% of EV sales in the country in 2023, is bracing for what “may be a notably lower” rate of growth, CEO Elon Musk said in late January.
The gap between Illinois’ target and the EV adoption rate is roughly consistent with the numbers at a national scale, where EV sales need to rise 500 percent by 2032 to hit federal emissions targets.
EV optimists point to the expectation of lower priced vehicles coming to showrooms soon and more charging stations coming online, shortages of which have impaired EV demand. They also point to consistent year-over-year improvement in EV sales. That may be true, but a 4X jump in the rate of EV adoption looks questionable at best, and record sales are not enough. To make the EV industry financially viable, far more sales are needed than at the current pace.
So far, Illinois seems unconcerned, and more taxpayer money will go into the effort. Last week, the Illinois Department of Transportation announced round one of the Illinois National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program, which will provide up to $50 million for the construction of 46 charging stations across the state.
Hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars have been bet on EVs, making it a historic chapter in government central planning. So far, the numbers look bad.
Gov. J.B. Pritzker recently promised electric car maker Rivian $827 million in taxpayer subsidies when he shouldn’t have given the company a penny. The question is, was it negligence or something more?
Details emerging about Chicago Teachers Union’s upcoming contract show just how divorced its demands, both extreme and expensive, are from the reality at Chicago schools. It’s not just about massive salary increases, but also about money for migrant students, climate initiatives, abortions and gender-affirming care. About blocking parental notification. Count on CTU’s demands to veer further from reality until the public finally says no.
Even harder when dealers are telling Ford and Stelantis to not send them any more EV’s since they already have a +300 day supply of unsold 2022’s and 2023’s already soaking them on their floor plan loans. Also Ford shut down production of the F150 Lightning and the Mustang Mach E. Stelantis and GM basically the same story. The only winners are Subaru, Mazda and Toyota who announced they are not jumping on the EV bandwagon. Toyota makes the best hybrids bar none. Subaru and Mazda gonna emphasize ICE and hybrids. EV’s are truly a joke, not sustainable economically or… Read more »
Agree 100% I have a a friend who lives in a suburb of Oakland. Very nice. Very affluent. He has owned reasonable cars all his life. He purchased a Tesla a year ago and loves it. He spent the money to build his own charging point in his garage and around town – all is well. He then drove it to San Diego and back. He was excited because the car planned out every stop and told him where to go for a charge. He had to stop 4 times on the way south. 25 to 30 minutes a stop.… Read more »
Agree, bought my wife a 2023 Rav4 Hybrid last year for $34K and she’s getting 43mpg.
No range issues either.
ICE cars IMO are the killer app.
They are reasonably priced, run forever and there is a gas station on almost every highway exit.
My 2018 Subaru Outback is paid off and the mechanic told me the 6cylinder engine will run for 250,000miles or another 15 years.
Why would I drop $60K+ on a nice new shiny EV?!
If Governor Pritzker is so enamored of EVs, why hasn’t he mandated that all government vehicles be EVs?
I can see it now, non-functioning emergency vehicles plugged in at the station waiting to be charged.
Someone should ask JB if his fleet of vehicles are EVs. And if they’re not, why not?
What is JB’s personal vehicle? Or is he unable to go the EV route because he can’t fit into one?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Let’s not and say we didn’t.
Gas in now $3.99 in Belvidere and Rockford but $3.17-$3.18 in Beloit according to Gas Buddy. 81 cents cheaper in Beloit. Sales tax is 5.5% there.
It’s a losing battle. Electricity is already expensive, more electric cars = more electricity demand = higher electric prices. Solar and wind will not lower electric prices, nuclear may but they say nuclear is bad.
My solar panel sales rep told me Central IL gets most of it’s electric power from a coal fired plant in SW Ohio. Clearly Pritzker and Democrats haven’t just failed IL, they have harmed IL – they are a economic menace!
So many Illinois workers in the coal power industry that are now out of work hollowing out many small Illinois towns. I agree fully that the Democrats have harmed Illinois.
Nuclear power is bad, ComEd got the Illinois Springfield boys to exclude them from giving out potassium iodide pills to residents in a 50 mile radius of the nuke plants. Nice of them, the first fallout from nuke disaster is Iodine 131 which gives
you thyroid cancer. Springfield stuffed their pockets with that favor.
This EV scenario was so predictable – But Leftist Democrats aren’t interested in facts, only the extreme ideology of their totalitarian mindset.
I guess this EV news of a ‘failure to launch’ officially makes Pritzker a ‘carnival barker’
Fat Fredo’s “goal” is not the goal of the citizens, and the citizens’ goal is all that matters. If Fat Fredo wants all those EVs on the road, he can buy them for people out of his own pocket.
The ultimate goal is to reduce the number of vehicles and drivers. They want you to be stabbed by homeless people on public trans, or just walking to get everywhere, like how it used to be in the medieval era, where most people rarely left their neighborhood because it required a far walk. They of course will get ICE vehicles, but you pleb, you must walk, to save mother Gaia.
Tesla repair trucks are powered by—get this—gasoline! Tesla must know something that fatso doesn’t. Ha ha ha.
The problems with EVs will continue to grow. The pace of charging locations will
Take to long to build while people will drive around looking for power like bees looking for flowers. Fixing or replacing
Batteries, DC traction motors, or service
People who understand DC circuits will be
Very expensive. El Gordo will take care of everything and give the poor folk free cars
And free power not to mention free repairs. Ahh! Life is good roll me another
Joint.
My 2018 Subaru Outback is paid off and will run for 250,000miles or another 15 years.
Why would I drop $60K on a range limited EV?!
Tell JoeyB to sell his leaded gas Corvette first!!
The Fat Man can restate the numbers all he wants, but people aren’t buying it. Their next move will be to continue to make life miserable for those of us who continue to drive a gas powered vehicle. In the form of higher taxes on gas, perhaps an increase license tag rate, Taxes on repair parts for the older vehicles…somehow all aimed at driving the population to buy these electric vehicles. Gotta ask – why.
The lefties will continue to foam at the mouth about climate change. They kneel at the alter of Saint Greta and Mayor Pete. It didn’t take long for people to figure out it was all smoke and mirrors, and with all the ridiculous progressive policies competing for dwindling Fed dollars, it will be increasingly difficult to build the necessary infrastructure and provide sufficient incentives to get the people sitting on the fence to buy these pieces of garbage. Take the under.