Net migration to push UK population over 70 million 11 years earlier than expected

Net migration is set to drive the population to over 70 million by 2026 – 11 years earlier than predicted, official figures show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has estimated that net migration will increase Britain’s population by nearly 10 per cent, or 6.1 million, by mid-2036.

That is equivalent to a population of two and a half times the size that of Greater Manchester, spanning a rise from 67 million to 73.7 million between mid-2021 and mid-2036.

The ONS had previously estimated net migration – the difference between the numbers arriving and leaving the UK – would be around 245,000, but now predicts that it will be 315,000 a year, 28 per cent higher. 

As a result, it has had to bring forward the date at which the UK population will pass 70 million from 2037 to 2026.

The forecasts blow apart the Government’s 2019 manifesto pledge to bring down the overall rate of net migration from its then level of 226,000.

The figures will fuel fresh demands for Rishi Sunak to go further in cracking down on net migration on top of his pledge to “stop the boats”.

On Tuesday, James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, announced the timetable for a package of measures to be introduced from March 11 with the aim of reducing net migration by 300,000 from its record of 745,000 in 2022.

The Home Secretary admitted migration was too high, saying: “We must get back to sustainable levels.”

He added that the package was “firm but fair”, and gave the migrants affected “time to prepare whilst ensuring that migration comes down”.

Mr Cleverly also announced that the UK and France would go “further and faster” under the £480 million deal to stop the boats, with extra aerial surveillance by drones and planes to be fast-tracked and nearly half of the 500 UK-funded officers already deployed on French beaches.

Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, said the figures were “too high,” placing pressure on schools, NHS and housing. She called for a cap on migrants.

“Recent government measures will help a bit, but they’re very late. We need a cap on overall numbers so we can hold government to account and fix this problem,” she wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Robert Jenrick, a former immigration minister, warned that the surge in immigration was “not how you create a united country” and said the projected annual rise of 315,000 would “only deepen the housing crisis”.

“There is no democratic consent for this outcome. The pace of change is far too fast. The power to change this, and set us on course for far more sustainable numbers, is in Parliament’s hands,” he added.

Neil O’Brien, a former health minister, said the level of migration was “totally unsustainable”, adding: “Given that so much of current migration is not for work or is for minimum wage work, the PM must act urgently to move us towards a system based on much lower levels of migration, with the remaining migrants that do come more focused on high skill, high wage work.

“The economic argument for mass low-wage migration has totally collapsed, and policy now needs to radically change.”

The figures are based on a projection that 13.7 million people will come to the UK between 2021 and 2036, while 7.6 million emigrate, a net migration of 6.1 million over that period.

The ONS upgraded its estimate for net migration from 2.8 million to 4.4 million by 2030. This has been fuelled by a more liberal immigration regime under Boris Johnson, which saw a surge in foreign students, workers and their dependents. Refugees from Ukraine and Afghanistan, plus Hong Kongers, have boosted the numbers.

The remaining increase in the population is accounted for by there being 541,000 more births than deaths. Some 10.8 million people will be born between 2021 and 2036, compared with 10.3 million deaths.

There will also be an increasing number of older people, with the number aged over 85 increasing from 1.6 million (2.5 per cent of the population) to 2.6 million (3.5 per cent).

The pace at which the population is growing has accelerated such that it is now increasing at more than double the rate in the latter part of the 20th century.

It took roughly 55 years – from 1950 to 2005 – for the UK population to increase from 50 million to 60 million. It will take just over 20 years from 2005 to 2026 to rise from 60 million to 70 million.

To reduce net migration by 300,000, Mr Sunak has sanctioned an increase in salary thresholds for skilled workers to £38,700, a ban on care workers and most postgraduate students from bringing relatives and ending salary discounts for shortage jobs.

Setting out the timings for the Government’s five point plan to reduce net migration, Mr Cleverly announced the ban on care workers and new rules requiring care providers to register with the care quality commission if they are sponsoring migrants will take effect from March 11.

This will be followed by the ending of the 20 per cent salary discount for foreign workers who take up jobs in shortage occupations on March 14.

From April 4, the minimum salary threshold for people coming to the UK on skilled worker visas will rise from £26,200 to £38,700. Foreign care and health workers and teachers will be exempt from the higher salary threshold.

This will be followed by the hike in the minimum income requirement for bringing foreign spouses and children to the UK, which will be introduced in stages. The first increase, to £29,000, comes into effect from April 11, but is set to rise to £38,700 by early 2025.