EXCLUSIVEDonald Trump surges to four-point lead over Biden in Daily Mail national poll, despite battling court cases

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Donald Trump is extending his lead over Joe Biden, as the contours of next year's presidential election come into focus.

Trump may face legal jeopardy as he battles a string of court cases but he now leads Biden by four points in the latest Dailymail.com/J.L. Partners poll.

The results show the former president winning over independent voters while Biden has seen his support fall within his own party and among women.

The numbers will reignite debate about whether or not Biden, 81, can generate enough excitement among Democrats to make good on his promise that he is the best candidate to beat Trump, 77.

And it comes after a separate DailyMail.com poll showed he was losing to Trump in two out of three key battleground states.

J.L. Partners polled 984 likely voters nationwide. The results show Donald Trump has a four-point lead over Joe Biden. The results carry a 3.1-point margin of error

Biden has seen his narrow lead in national polls disappear since the start of the year. Trump is also head in a series of swing states that will likely decide the result 

EXCLUSIVEREAD MORE: Voters describe Trump and Biden's plans for a second term as REVENGE or NOTHING

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To look at the overall national picture, J.L. Partners surveyed 984 likely voters using landline and cellphone calls, as well as SMS messages and smartphone apps.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were tomorrow, 40 percent of respondents picked Trump and 36 percent chose Biden.

Independents Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West won 4 percent and one percent respectively, while Green candidate Jill Stein's share was rounded down to zero.

That leaves much to play for. Some 18 percent said they were still undecided or wanted a different candidate.

And the poll went into the field before Colorado's supreme court added another twist, disqualifying the former president from the state's Republican primary.

Even so, James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, said Trump was on the up and up. 

'Voters might think Trump is guilty of the charges he has put to him, including a sizeable chunk of Republicans, but his record in his first term means he is still attracting support,' he said.

'But look closer and it becomes clear that Trump’s lead is more because of Biden weakness than Trump strength. 

'Biden has taken a particular hit amongst 18-29 year old women, and suffers from low enthusiasm amongst black people too. There is also a big chunk of undecideds – one in ten of Biden 2020 voters – who might not like Biden but can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump.

'The takeaway from this has to be that, come the election, the race will be tighter. As we end 2023, both candidates have it all to play for.'

Biden had the advantage earlier in the year, but has seen momentum shift to his most likely opponent in next year's general election

J.L. Partners polled 550 voters in Arizona, in Georgia and Wisconsin last month. The results showed Joe Biden in danger of losing two states that helped him win in 2020

Trump has yet to secure the Republican nomination. That picture will become clearer in January when Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire pick their preferred candidate. 

For the moment, he remains the undisputed frontrunner.

When voters were offered a straight choice between Biden and Trump, the former president won by 46 points to 43.

However, the race is tight. All the results come with a 3.1-point margin of error.

But they show where momentum lies. Trump was two points behind Biden in the first DailyMail.com poll in June, before holding a one-point lead in September and in October. 

Those polls show that Trump has gone from four points behind with independents to two points ahead.

Meanwhile, Biden's overwhelming lead with young women has fizzled from 12 points to two points. And white voters have moved increasingly to Trump at the same time.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa

Biden has struggled with questions about his age and voters continue to say they are worried about the economy under his stewardship, despite a series of key indicators all moving in the right direction.

His overall approval rating remains well under water. 

In contrast, Trump seems not to have suffered from indictments in four criminal cases during the past year.

Whether a conviction would finally strip away his non-stick coating remains to be seen.

Our new poll offers further insights into the race. J.L. Partners also asked respondents for one word to describe each candidate's plans for a second term.

The results suggest voters expect a miserable choice at the ballot box next year: A candidate seeking 'revenge' versus a candidate with no real plans for his second term.

Trump has used rally speeches and other appearances to rail against opponents. He has even leaned into the idea of being a dictator at times, as a way of getting things done

JL Partners asked 1000 likely voters for the one word they associated with Joe Biden's plans for a second term. The results will make sobering reading for the president's campaign

For Biden they suggest a candidate who is failing to communicate a clear manifesto to voters.

'Nothing,' was by far the most popular word to describe what he wanted to achieve, with 'economy,' and 'peace' the next in line. 

The results are very different for Trump, who has perhaps been too successful in signposting his intentions.

The former president, who spends a huge amount of his time railing against opponents and critics, is associated with: 'Revenge', 'power,' and 'dictatorship.'

'It distils the essence of this campaign pretty accurately,' said author and conservative commentator Matt Lewis.