PREDICTION: PUTIN FACES ‘IRREVERSIBLE’ DEFEAT: Russia’s retreat from a key logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in the face of advancing Ukrainian forces is not only another embarrassing defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin but may also mark a fundamental shift in momentum in favor of Ukraine, say former U.S. commanders.
“No amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it, no amount of annexation, no amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get [Putin] out of this particular situation,” said retired Army Gen. David Petraeus on ABC on Sunday. “He is losing, and the battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible.”
“The reality facing Russia now is that Ukraine, a country a third the size of Russia, has a bigger, much more effective army on the ground, and other assets as well,” said Petraeus. “He’s already lost a really critical element in that, a critical city that would have been a very key supply hub had they been able to go farther. And that’s just going to continue. He’s going to continue to lose on the battlefield. And at some point, there’s going to have to be recognition of that.”
The liberation rail hub of Lyman (pron: lee-MON) came as Russian forces melted away without a fight, taking up what the Russian Defense Ministry called “more advantageous positions.”
“This is a tremendous victory for the Ukrainians. And it’s a victory that I think that they could turn into a cascading series of defeats of Russian forces,” said retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster on CBS. “What we might be at here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, a moral collapse.”
“They must really be at a breaking point, if you look at just the numbers of casualties, the vast area that they’re trying to defend,” said McMaster, former President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser. “I think it’s very important also to understand that these forces that are in full retreat now out of Lyman were really the first round of mobilization. … Those forces were hastily trained, thrown into that front, and these are the forces that are collapsing right now.”
PUTIN PUSHES AHEAD WITH ANNEXATION DESPITE OUTCRY FROM WESTERN LEADERS
IN MOSCOW ‘THE MOOD IS GRIM’: The loss of a strategic city of Lyman on the day and in the same area that Putin claimed his illegal annexation declaration Friday prompted a backlash of finger-pointing and recrimination on Russian media.
“Tonight on Russian state TV: The mood is grim, look at their faces,” said Julia Davis of Russian Media Monitor, who tweeted a clip of Dmitry Sablin, deputy chairman of the Defense Committee. “[He] admits that Russia desperately needs ‘to stop and regroup,’” said Davis, “and is experiencing all sorts of shortages, compared to Ukraine that has it all — and then some.”
“Sablin admits that second-rate weapons from the West are better than Russia’s best weapons,” tweeted former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul in response to the clip. “He also admits that Russia needs 30 years to win…I wonder if Putin is watching?”
“Kremlin-sponsored media and Russian milbloggers — a prominent Telegram community composed of Russian war correspondents, former proxy officials, and nationalists — are grieving the loss of Lyman while simultaneously criticizing the bureaucratic failures of the partial mobilization,” according to the latest analysis from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
“Some guests on heavily-edited Kremlin television programs that aired on October 1 even criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex four Ukrainian oblasts before securing their administrative borders or even the frontline, expressing doubts about Russia’s ability ever to occupy the entirety of these territories,” the ISW said.
“Kremlin propagandists no longer conceal their disappointment in the conduct of the partial mobilization, frequently discussing the illegal mobilization of some men and noting issues such as alcoholism among newly mobilized forces. Some speaking on live television have expressed the concern that mobilization will not generate the force necessary to regain the initiative on the battlefield, given the poor quality of Russian reserves.”
UKRAINIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE: Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to break through Russian defenses, not just in the east but also approaching the important southern city of Kherson.
Numerous postings on social media show Ukrainian troops displaying flags in various villages in the Kherson region. And Russian pages warn of an impending disaster and say overmatched Russian troops are pleading for airstrikes to blunt the Ukrainian offensive.
“A Russian-installed official in the Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, admitted in a video statement on Monday morning that the Ukrainian forces ‘have broken through a little deeper,’” reported the Associated Press.
“If Kherson falls and Putin loses 15,000 of his best troops it will be a political disaster destabilizing the state,” tweeted retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, a former U.S. commander. “He cannot find a way out.”
McCaffery and others continue to warn that, with his back to the wall and losing on every front, Putin becomes more desperate and dangerous and more likely to consider his threat to use a low-yield nuclear weapon. “The Russians think limited nuclear war possible to protect the survival of the state,” tweeted McCaffrey. “Obviously not the situation facing Russia. Putin’s personal survival at stake.”
IS THIS HOW NUCLEAR WAR STARTS?
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HAPPENING TODAY: Opening arguments begin today in federal court in Washington in what observers are calling the highest-profile and most serious trial related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
Federal prosecutors will lay out their case against Oath Keepers founder and leader Stewart Rhodes and four additional members of the extremist group who are charged with seditious conspiracy for their alleged weekslong plot to stop the peaceful transfer of power from then-President Donald Trump to President-elect Joe Biden.
It’s been 30 years since anyone has been convicted on a charge of seditious conspiracy, which carries up to a 20-year prison sentence.
“Court records show the Oath Keepers repeatedly warning of the prospect of violence — or ‘a bloody, bloody civil war,’ as Rhodes said in one call — if Biden were to become president,” according to the Associated Press. “The Oath Keepers organized trainings — including one in ‘unconventional warfare’ — and stashed weapons at a Virginia hotel so they could get them into the capital quickly if necessary”
AUSTIN ON PUTIN’S NUCLEAR THREAT: In an interview aired on CNN yesterday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assertion that a large swath of eastern Ukraine now belongs to Russia and is therefore protected by Moscow’s nuclear umbrella is “an illegal claim” and “an irresponsible statement.”
“This nuclear saber-rattling is not the kind of thing that we would expect to hear from leaders of large countries with capability,” Austin told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. “This referendum is a sham, it’s fiction, and we will never respect their illegal annexation of Ukraine territory — and nor will most of the international community.”
Asked if he has conveyed privately to his Russian counterpart how the U.S. would respond to the use of a low-yield “battlefield” nuke, Austin said there has been communication at the highest levels but that he has not talked to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu lately.
“But I have talked to him in the past, and I have addressed this very issue and warned to not go down this path and conduct this type of irresponsible behavior,” Austin said. “I think he heard my message. But, you know, to be clear, the guy who makes that decision — I mean, it’s one man. There are no checks on Mr. Putin.”
Austin said that while he wouldn’t rule out a nuclear strike ordered in desperation, “I don’t see anything right now that would lead me to believe that he has made such a decision.”
STOLTENBERG: ‘NATO’S NOT PARTY TO THIS CONFLICT’: In an appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg rejected what he called Putin’s “dangerous, reckless” nuclear rhetoric, along with his characterization that Russia is really fighting NATO and the West, not Ukraine.
“He has tried again and again to tell a story that NATO is party to the conflict and that NATO caused this conflict. That’s absolutely wrong. First of all, this is a war that President Putin has started. It’s a war by his choice,” Stoltenberg told NBC’s Chuck Todd. “NATO’s not party to this conflict. What we do is that we provide support to Ukraine, an independent sovereign nation in Europe that has the right to defend itself against the war of aggression. And this is a right actually enshrined in the U.N. Charter. And therefore, we will continue to provide support to Ukraine to defend themselves.”
NORD STREAM LEAK SUGGESTS RUSSIA CAN USE ENVIRONMENTAL WARFARE AGAINST WEST
DOOR STILL OPEN TO UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP: After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Friday plea for “accelerated ascension” into NATO, Stoltenberg indicated that while the door is technically open, the requirement that all 30 nations approve any new member and the fact that Ukraine is at war mean for now the emphasis needs to be on keeping military assistance flowing.
“The top priority now among the allies and partners is to support Ukraine. They need more support. They need continued support, and that’s the message I conveyed to President Zelensky when I spoke to him a few days ago,” Stoltenberg said. “And that’s the message from NATO leaders.”
UKRAINE’S NATO BID ‘SHOULD BE TAKEN UP AT A DIFFERENT TIME,’ WHITE HOUSE SAYS
NATO FINLAND/SWEDEN WATCH: Hungary and Turkey (or Türkiye as Turkey now wants to be called) are the last two countries standing between Finland and Sweden and NATO membership. Viktor Orban’s Hungary and Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey are the two NATO nations with the closest relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and both have the potential to be the spoiler, given that accession to NATO requires approval from all 30 current NATO members.
Slovakia became the 28th NATO member to ratify the articles of accession for Finland and Sweden last week.
STOPGAP CR STOPS SHORT OF DOD NEEDS: On Friday, just hours before the midnight deadline, the House passed and President Joe Biden signed a short-term continuing resolution to fund the federal government through Dec. 16.
The action avoided a shutdown but means the Pentagon will once again have to wait for at least two months before it can tap into big budget increases for the new fiscal year.
“In any year, a stopgap funding bill is harmful. This year, it could be particularly damaging given the serious economic pressures from inflation and the security situation in Ukraine and many other places,” said former Army Secretary Eric Fanning, who is now president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association.
“This continuing resolution asks our warfighters, as well as the small and large businesses comprising our defense industrial base, to bear the brunt of inflation, while Congress puts off one of its primary responsibilities again,” Fanning said. “Now, Congress and the administration must negotiate and pass full-year appropriations bills as quickly as possible.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Putin pushes ahead with annexation despite outcry from Western leaders
Washington Examiner: Dozens killed and wounded in Russian strike in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Nord Stream leak suggests Russia can use environmental warfare against West
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian President Zelensky announces fast-track efforts to join NATO
Washington Examiner: NATO chief open to Ukraine application to join alliance
Washington Examiner: Ukraine’s NATO bid ‘should be taken up at a different time,’ White House says
Washington Examiner: Iranian regime struggling with frequent and widespread protests
Washington Examiner: Venezuela releases seven US hostages in exchange for two prisoners
Washington Examiner: Navy sailor acquitted on charges relating to fire on USS Bonhomme Richard
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Putin and Zelensky are escalating their conflict
New York Times: Troops Hunt Demoralized Russian Stragglers In A Key Recaptured City
AP: Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin’s war.
AP: U.S. captives ‘prayed for death’ on brutal ride from Ukraine
Washington Post: Americans captured by Russia detail months of beatings, interrogation
New York Times: Nord Stream Pipelines Have Stopped Leaking, The Danish Energy Agency Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Senate Confirms Saltzman as Next Space Force CSO
AFP: North Korea Nuclear Test Would Provoke Wide-Ranging U.S. Response: Military
Nikkei Asia: U.S. Weighs More Military Exercises With Japan And South Korea
Bloomberg: Australia Says Nuclear Submarine Plan On Track To Be Unveiled In Early 2023
Air & Space Forces Magazine: US and Partners Now Moving Toward Interchangeable — Not Just Interoperable — Weapons
Breaking Defense: ‘It Has to Work’: Inside the Military’s Race to Solve an Ejection Seat Safety Conundrum
Defense News: Senators Propose ‘China Grand Strategy’ Commission to Guide US Policy
Washington Times: Chinese Espionage, Cyber Programs Pose Major Counterintelligence Threat, Senate Report Warns
Reuters: U.S. Defense Secretary Sees No Imminent Invasion Of Taiwan By China
Politico: Austin Stops Short Of Endorsing Biden’s Vow To Defend Taiwan
Defense Daily: Air Force Awards Future Hypersonic Power Contracts to General Electric and Honeywell
Space News: Space Force Studying Requirements for Cislunar Space Domain Awareness
AP: Austin Visits Hawaii Amid Military Families’ Distrust After Fuel Spill
Washington Post: Trump weighed bombing drug labs in Mexico after he mistook adviser, new book shows
19fortyfive.com: Could Greece and Turkey Really Go to War?
19fortyfive.com: Putin Wants Russia’s Borders Changed? History Says He Should Be Quiet
19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Using Stalin’s Playbook to Rebuild the Russian Empire in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Putin Has Signed Russia’s Death Warrant Thanks to the Ukraine War
Calendar
MONDAY | OCTOBER 3
10 a.m. — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Ukrainian Attitudes of War and Peace: Complex Dilemmas of Wartime,” with Karina Korostelina, professor at George Mason University’s School for Peace and Conflict Resolution; and Gerard Toal, professor of government and international affairs at Virginia Tech https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ukrainian-attitudes-war-and-peace
12:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies “Smart Women, Smart Power” virtual discussion: “Russia’s Operations in Ukraine,” with Assistant Defense Secretary for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander https://www.csis.org/events/russias-operations-ukraine-conversation
2:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion: “Secure supply chains and the race for advanced technologies: How can the United States succeed against China and Russia?” with House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Michael McCaul (R-TX) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-can-the-united-states-succeed
4 p.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion: “The Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict Where We’re Heading and Geopolitical Implications,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president for Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace; former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute; and Jennifer Cafarella, chief of staff at the Institute for the Study of War https://events.uschamber.com/InSTEPVirtual
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 4
1 p.m. — New Democrat Network virtual discussion: “The nature of America’s current conflict with Russia,” with David Rothkopf, co-founder and CEO of the Rothkopf Group https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Pakistani Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, chief of the Army staff to the Pentagon
3 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace Twitter Space discussion: “What Comes Next for Russia, Ukraine and Europe’s Peace and Security,” with Angela Stent, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Mary Glantz, senior adviser at the USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/twitter-space-what-comes-next
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 5
8 a.m. 1910 Oracle Way, Reston, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: with Kimberly Buehler, director of the Army Office of Small Business Programs https://afceanova.swoogo.com/OCT22SBB
12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “NAFO (North Atlantic Fellas Organization) and Winning the Information War: Lessons Learned from Ukraine,” with Matt Moores, co-founder of NAFO; and Iuliia Mendel, Ukrainian journalist https://www.csis.org/events/nafo-and-winning-information-war-lessons-learned-ukraine
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion: The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD (mutually assured destruction): How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large, with author Harlan Ullman, senior adviser at the Atlantic Council; Susan Eisenhower, president of the Eisenhower Group; Dov Zakheim, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani, director for South and Central Asia at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2163-the-fifth-horseman
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 6
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave, N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “The Implementation Plan for the Army Climate Strategy,” with Principal Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Installations, Energy, and Environment Paul Farnan and former Assistant Defense Secretary for Operational Energy Plans and Programs Sharon Burke https://www.csis.org/events/launch-army-climate-implementation-plan
11 a.m. 2121 K St. N.W. — International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion: on “Ukraine: Back to the Future (of Warfare)?” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors; Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Borys Kremenetskyi, defense attache at the Embassy of Ukraine; Lawrence Rubin, associate fellow at IISS; and Franz-Stefan Gady, senior fellow at IISS https://www.iiss.org/events/2022/10/ukraine-back-to-the-future-of-warfare
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual Forward Defense Forum: “How Can We Deter China in the 2020s?” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner at WestExec Advisors; and Tim Cahill, senior vice president for global business development and strategy at Lockheed Martin https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-can-we-deter-china-in-the-2020s/
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 7
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “The current state of affairs in Afghanistan,” with Fawzia Koofi, Afghan parliamentary lawmaker https://www.csis.org/events/armchair-discussion:-fawzia-koofi
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 11
TBA — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg news conference ahead of NATO Defense Ministerial https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 12
TBA NATO Headquarters, Brussels — NATO defense ministers, including U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meet over two days at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. A separate meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group, hosted by the United States will take also take place. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to conduct a news conference at the end of each day. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This is a tremendous victory for the Ukrainians. And it’s a victory that, I think, that they could turn into a cascading series of defeats of Russian forces. … What we might be at here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, a moral collapse.”
Former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster on CBS’s Face the Nation
