856
FXUS65 KABQ 301135 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

-  A strong east canyon wind is expected for the Albuquerque and
  Santa Fe Metro areas Thursday night into Friday. Localized
  blowing dust may reduce visibility.

- Precipitation chances ramp up Thursday through early next week.
  Widespread precipitation is on tap for Friday, then favoring
  central NM on Saturday, and then eastern New Mexico will be
  favored late this weekend into early next week. Some severe
  storms will be possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions look to return for parts of western
  and central areas on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A closed H5 low is crossing into western NM from AZ early this
morning, and will open to a trough as it crosses the state today. A
few light showers will accompany the core of this system through the
day with clearer and drying conditions behind it. High low level
moisture remains across the eastern plains of NM where low clouds
have redeveloped near Clovis and over the central highlands between
Las Vegas, Clines Corners and Santa Rosa. The aforementioned trough
will tap into some of this moisture producing afternoon showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms across eastern NM today.

A backdoor cold front pushes through northeastern NM in the wake of
the departing upper level system Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This will bring another northeastern wind shift and stunt
any warming trend for Colfax and Union Counties. Drier southwesterly
flow strengthening over southern NM will halt this front`s
advancement through east-central NM Thursday afternoon. A sharpening
surface pressure gradient along the frontal boundary will be the
focal point for convective initiation Thursday afternoon over far
northeastern NM. Storms will track east along and just south of the
CO border between the Sangre de Cristo`s to the TX/OK border late
Thursday. Convective outflow will help enhance the advancement of
the backdoor front through eastern NM Thursday night heading into
the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

The backdoor front will be swinging through the eastern plains
throughout Thursday night and reaching the central mountain chain by
the early morning hours on Friday. A gusty east canyon gap wind
looks to blow through the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas
throughout the morning, with the strongest gusts just around
sunrise. Gusts as strong as 50 to 55 miles per hour are possible
as wind exits the Tijeras canyon. Easterly flow will persist
throughout the rest of the day, moistening the environment and
increasing dewpoints throughout the region. A persistent 15 to 20
kt breeze will continue into the morning and afternoon which could
keep some patchy blowing dust along the Rio Grande Valley beyond
the initial frontal passage. A weak upper level low will be making
its way into the Four Corners late Friday, bringing with it some
deeper upper and mid level moisture as well as some synoptic
forcing for shower and storms to develop for northern areas. Model
soundings indicate that northwest areas will probably get some
virga showers, while the northern mountains and western mountains
will be the areas more likely to get some light wetting
precipitation and even some rumbles of thunder. Stability may stem
storms in northeast parts of the state, while central and
southeast areas could see enough destabilization throughout the
day for thunderstorms to develop.

The trough will continue pushing through the rest of the state on
Saturday, with increased chances for showers and storms for central
and northern New Mexico during the afternoon. The Albuquerque and
Santa Fe metro areas could see their first thunderstorms of the
season this year, with storms capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch. On Sunday, a Pacific
low in the Great Basin will begin its influence on the weather here
in the Land of Enchantment. Western and central areas will begin to
see an increase in drier southerly to southwesterly flow. Recent
guidance has trended stronger with wind speeds for Sunday
afternoon. With mostly southerly flow, these winds look to pick
up in speed as they funnel up along the Rio Grande Valley. Current
forecasts show 40 to 50 mph gusts in the late afternoon,
increasing the fire weather threat for the lower Rio Grande Valley
and creating patchy blowing dust. This setup looks to form a
sharper dewpoint gradient east of the central mountain chain as
southeasterly flow from the Gulf will look to raise dewpoints up
to the mid 50s. With increased instability during the afternoon,
thunderstorms look do develop along the eastern plains with severe
gusts and hail possible.

The Pacific low will look to creep into our region during the
beginning of next week, but there is still some disagreement among
the models for storm track and timing. GEFS ensemble members are a
little bit quicker and have the low pushing north of the Four
Corners, this is about 20% of all model members. GEPS and ENS
solutions are a little bit slower and have a more southerly track.
As a result, Pacific front timing is still quite uncertain and
can happen anywhere from Sunday night to Monday night. Conditions
look to become drier behind the front, shifting the dryline
farther east for Monday and Tuesday. The system looks to drop
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year
on Monday and Tuesday. There is also increased chances for more
widespread showers and even some mountain snow for northern and
western areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Spotty IFR/MVFR ceilings over portions of east-central NM and the
central highlands are breaking up this morning. Have removed
mention of them at KLVS and KTCC a bit early as a result. VFR
prevails across western NM today as scattered showers and storms
will favor areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
PROB30s are included at KLVS, KTCC, and KROW for the chance these
storms produce localized gusty winds near these terminals.
Conditions clear west to east this evening into Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions fill into western NM today and
Thursday behind a weather system exiting into TX as westerlies pick
up alongside lowering humidity. A backdoor cold front advancing into
northeastern NM Thursday, advances through the gaps of the central
mountain chain to the Continental Divide by Friday bringing cooler
weather and higher humidity. Fire weather conditions subside as a
result these days before returning Sunday through western and
central NM. Dry and strong southwesterly flow picks up Sunday ahead
of a strengthening storm system over the western CONUS. Sustained
southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts will be present
through western NM and up the Rio Grande Valley. Higher humidity and
precipitation chances hold onto eastern NM Sunday before being
pushed into TX Monday as the drier southerly to southwesterly winds
advance from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  41  72  42 /   0   0  20   5
Dulce...........................  68  29  69  30 /  10   0  30  10
Cuba............................  66  37  69  37 /   5   0  10  20
Gallup..........................  69  31  71  33 /   0   0  10   5
El Morro........................  64  35  68  39 /   0   0  10  10
Grants..........................  70  32  73  35 /   0   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  66  36  70  36 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  69  43  72  42 /  10   0   5   5
Datil...........................  65  39  69  39 /   0   0   5   5
Reserve.........................  74  30  77  33 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  78  33  81  39 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  61  32  62  31 /  20   5  40  20
Los Alamos......................  64  44  66  44 /  20   0  20  10
Pecos...........................  64  40  68  41 /  30   0  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  61  36  63  36 /  30   5  40  30
Red River.......................  51  30  53  29 /  40   5  60  40
Angel Fire......................  56  20  60  27 /  50   0  50  40
Taos............................  64  30  68  32 /  30   0  30  20
Mora............................  61  34  64  35 /  50   0  30  30
Espanola........................  72  39  74  42 /  20   0  10  10
Santa Fe........................  65  43  69  44 /  30   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  69  40  73  43 /  20   0  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  73  51  76  51 /  10   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  74  46  77  49 /  10   0  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  40  80  48 /   5   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  47  78  49 /   5   0   5   5
Belen...........................  77  37  80  44 /  10   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  76  45  79  48 /  10   0  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  76  36  79  45 /  10   0   5   5
Corrales........................  76  45  79  48 /  10   0   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  76  37  79  46 /  10   0   5   5
Placitas........................  71  47  74  48 /  10   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  75  46  79  48 /  10   0   5  10
Socorro.........................  79  45  83  47 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  44  71  43 /  10   0  10  10
Tijeras.........................  69  44  72  45 /  10   0  10  10
Edgewood........................  69  40  74  41 /  10   0  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  70  34  75  37 /  10   0  10  10
Clines Corners..................  64  39  69  40 /  20   0  10  10
Mountainair.....................  69  40  73  40 /  10   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  69  40  73  40 /   5   0   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  72  45  77  45 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  64  41  71  41 /   5   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  61  35  58  35 /  30   0  70  60
Raton...........................  66  35  66  37 /  30   0  60  60
Springer........................  66  34  68  38 /  30   0  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  64  37  68  39 /  40   0  20  20
Clayton.........................  69  42  66  42 /  40   5  50  60
Roy.............................  65  38  68  41 /  40   0  40  30
Conchas.........................  73  42  77  47 /  30   0  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  70  42  75  45 /  20   0  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  71  43  75  47 /  30   0  10  40
Clovis..........................  72  47  79  49 /  20   0   5  30
Portales........................  73  44  81  48 /  30   0   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  74  44  79  47 /  20   0   5  20
Roswell.........................  81  49  87  53 /  10   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  75  47  82  45 /   5   0   0   5
Elk.............................  73  44  81  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24