467
FXUS65 KABQ 150538 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

A storm system approaches New Mexico from the southwest on Wednesday
allowing shower and thunderstorm activity to increase Wednesday
afternoon. There is a chance of a few strong to severe storms over
the Northeast Highlands and Plains of New Mexico. Scattered
showers and storms will increase in coverage across western and
central New Mexico as well. Thunderstorm activity becomes more
widespread on Thursday as the storm system moves across New
Mexico. Coverage of storms focuses more across central, southern
and eastern New Mexico. The main hazards from these storms will be
hail, lightning, heavy rainfall leading to flooding and gusty
downburst winds. The storm system clears out of the area Thursday
night. Over the weekend temperatures push much above normal with a
chance of 90 degrees in the Rio Grande Valley and 100 degrees
towards Roswell. This will be some summer like heat after having
below normal temperatures the first couple of weeks of May.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and isolated storms have blossomed across the western and
northern high terrain thanks to higher mid level moisture ahead of a
baggy low over southern CA and an upper level trough over the Great
Basin. These showers and storms have been pretty dry with virga,
little wetting footprints and erratic wind gusts, like yesterday.
KGUP has had some wind gusts of up to 35 mph this afternoon with
most sites not seeing much wind as of the writing of this
discussion. Shower and isolated storm activity will quickly
dissipate just after sunset. However, unlike last night some mid to
high level clouds will remain, mainly across northern and west
central areas.

Convection across Colorado will send a backdoor front into far
northeast NM (Colfax and Union Counties) Thursday morning. Higher
moisture will be behind the backdoor front with PWATs increasing to
around 0.75 inches. Additionally, a dryline will set up just east of
the NM/TX border extending south of surface low somewhere between
Tucumcari and Dalhart. In the upper levels, the northern stream
trough will be over the central Rockies of Colorado and the baggy
low will be over southern AZ near Yuma. With this, there will be
some showers and storms developing Wednesday afternoon across the
north and west central mountains. These will be drier with little
wetting footprints due to surface dewpoints in the 20s and 30s.
However, in far northeast NM wetter showers and storms will develop
off the Sangre De Cristo mountains and surrounding mesas. These
storms will be capable to becoming strong to severe thanks to MLCAPE
of 500 to 1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts, and mid
level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 deg C. HREF paintball clusters show a
cluster of higher dBz values in Union County.

CAMs show this activity exiting into the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles come the mid evening hours. Additionally, the drier
shower and storm activity across western and north central NM should
dissipate after sunset. The convective activity across northeast NM
and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles will help surge the backdoor
front through the rest of eastern NM Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The baggy upper low and northern stream upper level trough
merge over the state Thursday morning with some weak upper low
circulation moving across into central NM. Lift along with upslope
flow across eastern NM behind the backdoor front will result in
scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across
central and eastern NM with the highest coverage along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain. Storm motion will be slow to
the east due to weak upper level winds under the upper low. The HPCC
and McBride burn scars will need to be watched for burn scar flash
flooding. Additionally, a severe weather threat will need to be
watched across east central and southeast NM. A tongue of higher
MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30 to 40
kts looks to be present north of the surface low. Main risk from
these storms will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

A progressive upper level trough and associated large scale lift is
expected to move out of New Mexico Thursday night into Friday.
Friday into Saturday the sub-tropical jet remain active and quite
strong with weak ridging developing aloft. Various model solutions
have differing timing of jet streaks but still agree with rising
heights in the 700-300mb layer. NA Ensembles have 500mb heights
getting close to the 90th percentile across southern NM during this
time. Atmospheric expansion in the vertical like this will support
increase temperatures. Flow at 700mb shifts from NW to SW Saturday
through Sunday. This will increase downsloping and compressional
heating on Sunday into Monday. 700-500mb flow increases more on
Monday with an approaching jet streak. Precip chances look pretty
limited as precipitable water values drop to less than half an inch.
What this does mean is a boost in temperatures so 100F is not out of
the question for SE NM including Roswell. In fact there is a 60 to
70 percent chance of hitting 100F at Roswell on Sunday and Monday
both based on the NBM. There is a 40 to 60 percent chance of
reaching 90F in ABQ Sunday. NWS Heat Risk gets into the moderate
category for each of these days so this early heat could catch some
folks by surprise if outside working in the heat.

The only other scenario that could play out is a backdoor cold front
pushing down the eastern plains on Sunday that could provide some
relief however only some of the GFS solutions are showing this.
ECMWF/Canadian are much slower/weaker with the front. So this
scenario of the front on Sunday looks to have much lower confidence
and why the forecast still leans towards the higher temperatures due
to shallow front if there is one and then downsloping with SW flow
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Very isolated showers in the northern mtns will dissipate
completely by around 08Z tonight. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms develop over the high terrain around 18Z, spreading to
the lower elevations later in the afternoon. Cloud bases will be
around 10kft, so gusty outflow winds will accompany any convection
that develops. A backdoor front pushes into the northeastern
corner of the state around 21Z. Some deeper convection will likely
develop along this boundary, accelerating the front`s progress
south and westward. Moisture advection behind the front will keep
showers and storms going through the night even after the loss of
daytime heating. Large hail and damaging wind gusts may accompany
storms in the northeast and east-central plains during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Shower and storm activity with little wetting footprints across the
higher terrain will quickly dissipate come sunset. An uptick in
moisture is expected across far northeast NM behind a backdoor front
increasing the coverage of wetter showers and storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of becoming
strong to severe. Some drier showers and storms will also be
possible across the north central and west central high terrain. The
backdoor front surges through eastern NM Wednesday night Thursday
morning as an upper level disturbance moves overhead. This will
result in scattered to widespread precipitation across central and
eastern NM. A few strong to severe storms could be possible across
east central and southeast NM. The upper= level disturbance exits to
the east Thursday night into Friday, ushering in drier air from the
northwest and putting an end to precipitation. The subtropical jet
stream lifts back north into New Mexico Sunday, bringing back
typical breezy spring winds. Southwest flow trends stronger early
next week, leading to the development of critical fire weather
conditions in western and central NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  78  46  77 /  20  10   5   5
Dulce...........................  37  75  35  72 /  10  30   5  30
Cuba............................  42  73  42  67 /  10  40  10  40
Gallup..........................  39  75  40  73 /  20  30  10  10
El Morro........................  41  71  41  68 /  20  50  20  30
Grants..........................  39  76  40  71 /  30  30  10  30
Quemado.........................  41  73  42  69 /  10  30  20  40
Magdalena.......................  49  76  47  70 /  10  20  10  40
Datil...........................  43  73  42  68 /  20  20  20  40
Reserve.........................  37  80  39  74 /   5  20   5  30
Glenwood........................  51  84  51  78 /   0   5   0  20
Chama...........................  36  68  36  65 /  20  50  20  50
Los Alamos......................  49  70  46  65 /  10  40  20  60
Pecos...........................  45  73  45  63 /  20  40  30  70
Cerro/Questa....................  41  66  44  60 /  30  60  40  60
Red River.......................  34  63  36  56 /  30  70  50  70
Angel Fire......................  32  65  34  55 /  10  60  40  70
Taos............................  38  72  39  65 /  20  40  20  60
Mora............................  40  70  40  58 /  10  50  30  70
Espanola........................  47  78  47  73 /  10  30  20  50
Santa Fe........................  49  74  47  66 /  10  40  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  47  77  47  70 /  10  30  20  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  81  53  74 /  10  20  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  82  52  76 /  10  10  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  84  52  78 /  10  10  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  81  53  76 /  10  10  20  30
Belen...........................  49  84  49  77 /  10  10  20  40
Bernalillo......................  53  83  52  76 /  10  20  20  40
Bosque Farms....................  49  84  49  77 /  10  10  20  40
Corrales........................  52  83  52  77 /  10  20  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  50  84  50  76 /  10  10  20  40
Placitas........................  52  79  51  71 /  10  20  20  50
Rio Rancho......................  53  82  52  76 /  10  20  20  40
Socorro.........................  54  86  53  81 /  10   5  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  73  47  65 /  10  20  30  50
Tijeras.........................  49  77  47  69 /  10  20  30  50
Edgewood........................  45  78  44  68 /   5  20  20  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  79  43  69 /   5  10  20  50
Clines Corners..................  44  74  43  62 /   5  10  20  60
Mountainair.....................  46  78  45  69 /  10  10  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  45  78  44  69 /   5   5  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  54  84  52  75 /   0   0   5  50
Ruidoso.........................  50  76  46  66 /   0   5   5  60
Capulin.........................  43  66  42  59 /  20  80  50  60
Raton...........................  42  71  43  63 /  10  70  50  60
Springer........................  44  72  45  64 /  10  60  30  60
Las Vegas.......................  44  72  43  61 /  10  40  30  70
Clayton.........................  52  74  49  65 /  10  60  40  40
Roy.............................  48  75  47  63 /  10  50  30  60
Conchas.........................  53  84  53  70 /  10  30  30  50
Santa Rosa......................  51  82  50  69 /   5  10  20  50
Tucumcari.......................  52  87  52  71 /   5  20  30  50
Clovis..........................  55  90  54  72 /   0  20  30  50
Portales........................  54  91  53  75 /   0  10  20  50
Fort Sumner.....................  52  88  52  74 /   0  10  20  50
Roswell.........................  59  95  59  81 /   0   0   5  40
Picacho.........................  54  86  51  72 /   0   0   0  50
Elk.............................  52  86  48  72 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...16