Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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779 FXUS65 KABQ 060526 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1126 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The hottest temperatures of the year will be possible tomorrow, creating moderate to major heat risk across much of northern and central New Mexico. Afternoon thunderstorms will favor the high terrain and adjacent lowlands. Less heat expected Friday and Saturday. Coverage of storms will increase through early next week, peaking on Sunday, with the greatest potential favoring the central mountains and eastward. A reduction of around 5 to 15 degrees is forecast for Sunday`s high temperatures compared to Saturday`s readings. Temperatures will begin trending warmer on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A 591 dm upper level ridge is building over the desert SW near Las Vegas this afternoon allowing temperatures to heat up, especially across western and central NM. East central and southeastern areas are pretty similar to yesterday temperature wise as a backdoor front that moved through last night leveled off the warming trend. The weak backdoor front along the east slopes of the central mountain chain has resulted in the development of high based cumulus and showers across the Sacramento Mountains and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains. Main hazard from this activity will be erratic gusty winds of up to 50 mph across the surrounding highlands as well as some dry lightning in the mountainous terrain. Any activity will quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating with mostly clear skies, light winds and mild temperatures overnight. The upper level ridge center moves over the state Thursday strengthening to 594 dm. This will result in the hottest day of the year to date for basically the entire state with upper 90s to low to mid 100s common for lower elevations outside of the far northeast plains. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include the northwest plateau, including Farmington, and the lower RGV, including Socorro, due to temperatures in those zones getting to criteria values of 100 and 105 degrees respectively. The latest experimental HeatRisk index shows widespread moderate indices (2 out of 4) outside of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and far northeast NM with major heat indices (3 out of 4) across the middle and lower RGV and east central and southeast plains. Therefore, remember to take precautions during the hottest part of the day by staying hydrated, limiting strenuous activities, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors with any cooling systems. In terms of precipitation chances, a backdoor front will be draped across the southern TX panhandle just north of the caprock (near Tucumcari) extending northwest to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Surface convergence looks to be sufficient enough to break the warm mid level subsidence cap come the afternoon to result in the development of a few isolated dry virga showers and storms across the Sangre de Cristo mountains and adjacent northeast highlands. Wetter storms will also be possible along the boundary in the southern Texas panhandle and the outflow from these storms could generate new ones in far east central NM in Quay, Curry and Roosevelt County. Intense daytime heating will result in the development of a few isolated dry virga showers and storms in the Gila Mountains and south central mountains. Inverted V sounding and DCAPE values over a 1000 J/kg will support erratic strong gusty winds of 50 to 60 mph in these areas. Any convective activity quickly fizzles around sunset with higher surface moisture sloshing back west across the eastern plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The center of the stubbornly hot 593dam high wobbles vaguely eastward Friday morning. This position and its slight weakening through the day will allow for a modest influx of moisture along its western side, giving rise to an uptick in afternoon showers and thunderstorms, the majority of which will favor the high terrain. DCAPE continues to trend excessive, with values in excess of 2000 J/kg possible. This would lend to a potent dry downburst threat in the afternoon. Given the lackluster low level moisture, storms will also be capable of dry lightning. Temperatures will see a slight reprieve from Thursday`s readings but will still flirt with or be at Heat Advisory criteria for a few zones. The upper high wanders further into TX on Saturday, elongating and weakening in its trek. A similar setup will persist in regards to shower and thunderstorm coverage. Meanwhile, a baggy upper low loitering in the eastern Pacific will push inland from the Baja California Saturday night. Departures still run rampant in the treatment of this low, the ECMWF allowing it to be absorbed by the prevailing upper ridge. The GFS foretells a less dramatic fate, allowing the feature to ride under the ridge and make it into wester NM before it succumbs to its demise. While the journey is different, the outcome is mostly the same: an increase in available moisture and lower temperatures. Locales will see anywhere from 5F to 15F in reduction to daytime temperatures compared to Saturday`s readings. A few more degrees of cooling are possible Monday. Moisture and the utilization thereof will improve during this event, leading to greater wetting footprints, particularly along the central mts and eastward Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A backdoor cold front will enter from the northeast around 12Z tonight with north to northeast winds in its wake. Convection Thursday will be isolated, favoring the high terrain of western and northern NM. There may be a few storms across the northeast plains as well along the stalled backdoor front. Given the large surface dewpoint depressions and high cloud bases, any showers and storms that do develop will be capable of producing very strong outflow wind gusts up to 45KT. In addition to dry microburst winds, the very hot temperatures will make density altitude a consideration for aviation operations. The backdoor front will push through the gaps of the central mountain chain tomorrow evening, creating gusts upwards of 30KT at KABQ and potentially KSAF too. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 No critical fire weather conditions expected through mid next week. Intense heat will build over the region and peak Thursday as a strong area of high pressure settles over NM. Moisture increases heading into the weekend resulting in better chances for drier showers and storms and little wetting rainfall areawide through Friday. Main concern from these storms will be dry lightning starts in the higher terrain. A backdoor front enters northeast NM Saturday increasing low level moisture and thus chances for wetter showers and storms. Wetter shower and storm activity, especially along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, looks to peak Sunday and possibly Monday as well due to the backdoor front banking up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain and an upper level low moving in from the southwest. Shower and storm chances trend down mid next week as high pressure builds back in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 54 100 59 98 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 45 93 47 93 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 53 92 57 92 / 0 0 0 20 Gallup.......................... 48 97 52 93 / 0 0 0 20 El Morro........................ 54 93 56 88 / 0 5 10 40 Grants.......................... 49 97 54 92 / 0 5 5 40 Quemado......................... 53 94 59 90 / 0 10 20 50 Magdalena....................... 63 95 65 91 / 0 10 10 50 Datil........................... 58 93 61 89 / 0 20 20 60 Reserve......................... 48 96 52 94 / 0 20 20 50 Glenwood........................ 64 98 67 99 / 0 20 20 50 Chama........................... 47 86 49 87 / 0 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 63 93 64 89 / 0 0 5 30 Pecos........................... 57 91 58 94 / 0 10 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 87 52 86 / 0 10 5 30 Red River....................... 46 78 47 76 / 0 20 10 40 Angel Fire...................... 40 82 42 83 / 0 20 5 30 Taos............................ 49 93 52 92 / 0 10 5 20 Mora............................ 52 85 52 87 / 0 20 10 40 Espanola........................ 57 100 60 96 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 94 63 92 / 0 5 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 97 61 96 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 98 69 97 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 100 67 98 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 102 66 100 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 100 67 99 / 0 0 5 20 Belen........................... 60 103 63 100 / 0 0 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 63 101 66 99 / 0 0 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 59 102 63 100 / 0 0 5 20 Corrales........................ 62 100 65 100 / 0 0 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 60 102 64 100 / 0 0 5 20 Placitas........................ 65 99 66 96 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 64 100 66 98 / 0 0 5 20 Socorro......................... 66 103 68 101 / 0 0 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 93 63 91 / 0 0 5 20 Tijeras......................... 62 96 63 94 / 0 0 5 20 Edgewood........................ 57 96 59 93 / 0 0 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 97 55 95 / 0 5 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 58 93 58 91 / 0 10 10 20 Mountainair..................... 59 95 61 93 / 0 5 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 59 96 60 92 / 0 10 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 65 96 66 94 / 0 20 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 61 88 62 88 / 5 30 20 40 Capulin......................... 55 83 55 88 / 0 30 10 50 Raton........................... 55 91 54 93 / 0 20 10 40 Springer........................ 55 93 55 94 / 0 30 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 55 90 56 91 / 0 20 10 30 Clayton......................... 61 88 60 96 / 0 10 10 30 Roy............................. 58 91 58 93 / 0 20 10 30 Conchas......................... 65 100 64 101 / 0 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 63 99 64 97 / 0 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 66 102 65 100 / 0 10 20 10 Clovis.......................... 66 101 68 101 / 0 10 30 5 Portales........................ 65 103 68 102 / 0 10 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 65 102 68 100 / 0 10 20 10 Roswell......................... 71 107 74 105 / 0 5 10 10 Picacho......................... 63 98 66 96 / 5 20 10 30 Elk............................. 61 95 64 93 / 5 30 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-219-220- 238. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...16