Alex (Sasha) Krainer

🇷🇺🇮🇷 Russia and Iran are teaming up to create a gas cartel! ⛽️ Gazprom and NIOC are planning direct gas transfers, aiming to control a large chunk of the global gas supply. This aligns with China's Belt and Road initiative. Will this reshape the energy landscape? #Gas #Cartel #Russia #Iran #China

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"Why WW3 would not be ‘bullish for gas’. If there are reasons to be ‘bullish’ on European gas prices, a global stock market meltdown on the eve of a Middle East regional conflict is not one of them. " There has been bullish support for TTF in Europe recently, in part due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Seb Kennedy discusses these developments and shares his insights about the Gas, TTF, and LNG markets. 👇 Read More : https://lnkd.in/e33v3-Yq #Gas #TTF #LNG #Europe #Energy #MiddleEast Seb Kennedy EklipX Research

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Is the EU gas bull market peaking? Read more: https://lnkd.in/eYSWM8Qh For the first time in weeks, #hedgefunds tempered bullish bets on European gas futures - and prices duly responded with a notable dip (week ending 23rd August). Physical players—gas suppliers and producers—have also changed tack by opening new long positions. Are they buying the dip, and does this indicate a new market phase is upon us? Price action since then suggests the Dutch TTF bull run has not entirely run out of steam, but the subtle repositioning of both 'funds' and 'physicals' suggests change is coming to the febrile EU gas market. Full story: https://lnkd.in/eYSWM8Qh #naturalgas #energy #energymarket #TTF #gasmarket #trading #commodity Written by Seb Kennedy and published on EklipX Research

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How Oil Is Adding Fuel to Geopolitical Fragmentation https://lnkd.in/dgFKdB5j #commodities #physicalcommoditiestrading #energytrading

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Is “fear of floating” Argentina’s Achilles Heel? Argentina’s initial step-deval in December allowed it to generate massive trade surpluses in H1. However, this benign trade backdrop failed to translate into international reserves’ accumulation, which are stuck below $30bn – and the current FX regime is to blame. A big risk is that this setup will create a negative feedback loop – low reserves => more fear of floating => even lower reserves.

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Copper prices are skyrocketing with supply shortage and increased demand from AI and ESG. This is while China, which consumes around 50% of Global copper, still remains subdued and also Europe which consumes 15% of global copper remains almost without growth. There are massive investment and speculative activities also involved in copper. Most large investment banks and fund houses have been publicly talking on copper prices and copper super cycle. Point is such a sharp surge in any commodity places massive pressure on margins and P&L of corporations which use them as raw materials. Specially if the order cycle is a bit longer. However, A company need not be helpless and lament. They can engage into commodity hedging and de-risk their business. Commodity hedging can be done for Base metals, petrochemical derivatives, natural gas, Agri commodities and many other commodities including Steel. However it requires strong understanding of basis risk and ability to manage sharp volatilities. QuantArt Hedgenius has a mission to help companies not be helpless with commodity price volatility. #commodityhedging #commodity #copper #steelhedging #lme #riskmanagement #steel #CME #Comex #commoditytrader

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"Western nations have imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia, targeting various sectors, including energy. These sanctions have progressively intensified as Europe strives to reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels. While Europe has already banned Russian oil imports, the consideration of a full ban on LNG imports has gained momentum as the conflict drags on, further isolating Russia and applying additional pressure on its economy. With Arctic LNG 2 coming online, the debate over such a ban has become increasingly urgent, reflecting broader efforts to weaken Russia's war capabilities..." Read More and Subscribe to receive regular updates from Rubber Stamp https://lnkd.in/e93mG_YE This article was published through EklipX Research #Gas #TTF #LNG #Europe #Energy #MiddleEast #carbon

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🇺🇦Ukraine’s counteroffensive roils the 🇪🇺EU gas market. Troubles ahead? Ukraine seizes a crucial infrastructure for 🇷🇺Russia’s gas exports and sends European gas prices to the highest levels in 2024. Energy geopolitics is the primary force influencing energy markets today... 👇 Read More: https://lnkd.in/eSZZt9Az Source: Francesco Sassi, published on EklipX Research #Gas #LNG #Ukraine #Russia #trading #commodities Francesco Sassi EklipX Research #macro #economy #energy

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OILK: Iran Risk And Global Demand Make This A Good Fund To Consider https://buff.ly/3vNX0Qi

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EU gas bulls are charging towards a big Russian bear🐻🐂 Prices on Dutch #TTF, the European benchmark for natural gas, have rallied 12% since the ‘flash crash’ on 19 September. November-dated TTF, the front-month contract, is currently trading above €39/MWh – a four-week high. The summer bull run peaked in late August, and prices partially retreated in September, but ephemeral factors seem to have revived upward momentum. Minor disruptions to the end of the Norwegian maintenance season and a brief early cold snap across much of north-west Europe are the main drivers. These events will pass, and there is no enduring or structural change on the horizon to justify continued wholesale gas price hikes. If anything, the opposite is true 👇 Access the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/e2e7QpPj Written by Seb Kennedy and published on EklipX Research #gas #Europe #Naturalgas #power #economy #germany #commodity #trading

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Europe and gas

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During the week of August 30 to September 6, China's total gas #demand reached 971 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d), an increase of 12 mcm/d compared to the previous week and 7% higher year-on-year (y/y). The average temperature in key areas for gas power plants was 30.7°C, consistent with the five-year average but slightly higher than last year's 30.1°C. Industrial #gas demand remained stable, while gas burn continued to support overall demand. Subscribe to the Chinese Gas Market Weekly Update by Rubber Stamp: https://lnkd.in/e-4vz-ve #gas #lng #naturalgas EklipX Research

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Mr. Copper... A copper short squeeze in New York is reverberating across the globe : The premium fetched by Comex contracts above the LME price rocketed to over $1,200 per ton, a blowout spread that has wrong-footed major players, some of whom are now scrambling for metal that they can deliver against expiring futures contracts... The spike was especially driven by short covering, but it also shined a light on tight supplies... Inventories tracked by the Comex total 21,066 short tons, while LME inventories in the US are just 9,250 tons... That compares with US demand of about 2 million tons a year... #copper #commodities #comex #futures #shorts #supply #trading #markets #finance #economy

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Since the #FED cut on Sept.18th; Rare Earth Metals $REMX (+14.2%), Lithium $LIT (+11.8%), Uranium $URA (+7.2%), Copper $CPER (+6.9%), Nickel Miners $NIKL (+6.8%), Steel $SLX (+5.7%), Aluminum $ALUM (+5.0%), European Carbon $KEUA (+4.1%), Platinum $PPLT (+3.5%), Silver $SLV (+3.0%), Forestry $WOOD (+3.0%), Bitcoin $IBIT (+3.0%), Soybean $SOYB (+2.4%), Wheat $WEAT (+2.5%), Sugar $CANE (+2.4%), Corn $CORN (+2.3%), Gold $GLD (+2.0%).#Commodities #metals #ratecut #centralbanks #inflation #markets #stockmarkets #ETF #fiscalpolicy

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Russia can only lose the war in Ukraine if it loses economically. And it can only lose economically if the oil price goes down from the current levels. With the structure of its currency reserves, it is difficult for Russia to defend its currency and the budget in case of a sustained drop in oil price. Therefore, the most important economic data for me this year is price of oil. For more on this, see the attached writeup (larger and more readable font in the next post, apologies).

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When you trade crude oil contracts do you depend only on the official data, or also the "parallel market" (ghost market) data too? Watch this video https://lnkd.in/dN83n4gF to find out what pro traders do. Like our video? Please share, subscribe, like and comment. #Crudeoil

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