July 4th Hangover & Hawkish Fed Hits Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion; Cyclical Stocks Sink

As 'Murica arrived back its desk, the overnight markets face some volatility after a big deflationary print for EU PPI along with contractionary print for EU PMI. That was followed by uglier than expected US factory orders data... and later in the day, FOMC Minutes reinforced The Fed's 'higher for longer' narrative.

Market expectations are now almost fully pricing in a hike in July, and no cuts through Jan '24...

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, the dollar was higher; bonds, gold, crypto, and most stocks were lower.

Defensives outperformed Cyclicals today...

Source: Bloomberg

...which is an interesting regime-shift given the higher-yields on the day (but one day does not a trend make... yet).

Source: Bloomberg

The Nasdaq managed some gains on the day while Small Caps were the biggest losers, The S&P desperately tried to get back to unch, The Dow lagged...

Materials stocks were the biggest losers today as Utes outperformed. Financial were slightly negative...

Source: Bloomberg

"Most Shorted" stocks opened lower but were squeezed back into the green before fading in the last hour...

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was higher on the day, but moved to the upper end of its recent range before fading back...

Treasury yields were higher across the curve but the short-end for a change outperformed, steepening the curve modestly...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied

Source: Bloomberg

The Mexican Peso surged to its highest since 2015, back below 17/USD...

Source: Bloomberg

The Russian Ruble tumbled (above 91/USD), notably weaker than pre-Ukraine-invasion...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold sank back today...

But oil prices continued their rebound with WTI back above $72...

Finally, NVDA managed a small gain today, despite the admin headlines on China export bans (and chip material export bans from China)...

Source: Bloomberg

Are we there yet?