Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025

...Heavy to Excessive Rainfall likely across portions of the Plains,
Midwest, and East into Monday...

...Severe weather possible across the High Plains and Northern Plains this
weekend into Monday...

...Heatwave continues for the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies with
highs reaching the 110s...

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms from the Rockies to the
East Coast around the periphery of a slow-moving deep layer cyclone will
be the primary cause of hazards through Monday.  Other players in the flow
pattern near the Lower 48 include an upper trough over the Northwest and
strengthening ridging across New Mexico and vicinity.  A deep layer
cyclone will drift eastward from the Midwest towards the Appalachians, and
near the surface low and its attendant fronts will be numerous showers and
thunderstorms within an anomalously moist air mass. This sets the stage
for flash flooding.  Portions of Virginia and North Carolina will see
flash flooding as the primary hazard.  The Southern Plains, Central
Plains, and Midwest, will be a focus for both flash flooding and severe
weather hazards this weekend.  Across portions of the Northern Plains and
High Plains, severe weather is the larger concern through Monday
disturbances aloft ejecting eastward ahead of the Northwestern upper level
trough play a role in increasing effective bulk shear within a moist and
unstable air mass.

It will continue to be hot and dry across lower elevations of the interior
Western U.S. as the upper level ridge strengthens.  The most impactful
heat will be across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest where
afternoon highs reach the 110s; an extreme heat warning is in effect for
portions of the region.  There are also elevated fire weather concerns
across portions of western Nevada and northeast California where Red Flag
Warnings are in effect for Saturday. 

The coolest areas in the country will be north of a frontal boundary
across the Great Lakes areas to the Northeast, with refreshingly cool
conditions and highs mainly in the 70s and 60s. South of the front, across
portions of the Southern and Central Plains, Southeast, and Gulf Coast, a
seasonably hot and humid airmass will remain in place.

Roth

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php