Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Thu May 09 2024

Valid 00Z Fri May 10 2024 - 00Z Sun May 12 2024

...Broad area of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe
weather and flash flooding continues Thursday evening across the
Southeast/Southern Plains...

...Storm chances linger along the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic through
Florida Friday...

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected along the
central/southern High Plains, with snow for higher elevations of the
central Rockies...

...Well above average high temperatures forecast for portions of
California and the Pacific Northwest heading into the weekend...

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday evening
and into early Friday morning ahead of a frontal boundary pushing
southeastward through the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Southern Plains. A broad Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) from
the the Storm Prediction Center is in place for the threat of damaging
winds and a few tornadoes, as well as very large hail for locations
further west across the eastern half of Texas. In addition, the
combination of multiple rounds of organized storms passing through the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and the prospect of robust
thunderstorms with intense downpours over Texas, has prompted a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the same region, with some scattered flash
flooding possible. Additional storms will also continue in the
post-frontal airmass further north across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic as an upper-level wave passes by. Some locally heavy
rainfall will be possible here as well. The front will continue
southeastward Friday morning, with the focus for showers and storms
shifting towards the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic south to Florida.
The threat of some damaging winds will remain possible with storms across
southern Georgia and the northern Florida Peninsula/Big Bend Region, with
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather continuing through Friday.
Storms should come to an end through Friday evening for most locations as
the front pushes eastward off the coast except for areas of South Florida.
Another upper-level wave/surface frontal system dropping southeastward
from Canada will bring another round of some light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon and Lower Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley Friday evening. Storm chances will spread into the
Mid-Atlantic by Saturday.

To the west, the frontal boundary responsible for the storms over the
Southeast/Southern Plains will also bring a continued chances of showers
and storms along the central/southern High Plains and into the adjacent
Rockies as the boundary lingers through the region. Most lower elevation
areas will see light to moderate rainfall, though some heavier showers
will be possible heading into later Saturday evening for portions of west
Texas, with some isolated flash flooding possible. Higher elevations of
the central Rockies in Colorado along and east of the Continental Divide
will see accumulating snowfall through Friday, with some locally heavier
totals of 6-12" possible. Precipitation chances should linger through at
least Saturday evening, the end of the current forecast period.

Unsurprisingly, temperatures will tend to be below average across much of
the eastern/central U.S. and into the central/southern Rockies following
the passage of the cold front. Forecast highs Friday-Saturday range from
the 50s and 60s in New England and the Mid-Atlantic west through the Great
Lakes, with 60s and 70s southwest through the Ohio Valley/Middle
Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. Highs will remain warmer
ahead of the front across the Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley into
southern Texas on Friday, with 80s generally expected, before temperature
drop for most locations into the 70s Saturday following the frontal
passage. In contrast, upper-level ridging along the West Coast shifting
northeasterly across the northern-tier of the country will bring
well-above average conditions. Highs in the 80s and even low 90s will be
possible from central California northward into the Pacific Northwest,
with some record-tying/breaking highs possible for a few locations. While
not quite as hot, temperatures will be above average through the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains, with generally 70s expected.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php