Why Build Back Better is both dead and alive

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We never quite knew where Tom Brady stood on retirement. 

But the position of Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., on Build Back Better? As clear as the Pope’s window after an application of Windex.

Some of the NFL’s best beat reporters indicated that Brady was sure to retire. Then Brady briefly put the kibosh on that. That was followed by vacillation. Finally, Brady announced he was, in fact, done after 22 seasons.

Manchin told colleague Bret Baier on "Fox News Sunday" Dec. 19 he was a "no" on the $1.9 trillion version of Build Back Better. Manchin reaffirmed that stance when Congress reconvened in January. Reporters continued to ask Manchin nearly every day on the sky bridge close to his office in the Hart Senate Office Building if his thinking had changed.

Manchin didn’t budge.

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President Biden suggested at a press conference that lawmakers dice Build Back Better into chunks. Then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., blasted to Democrats one of her voluminous "Dear Colleague" missives. Pelosi’s letter was notable for what it didn’t say.

President Biden failed to convince senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to eliminate or weaken the filibuster. (AP/Getty Images)

Pelosi told Democrats they needed to pass a spending bill to avert a government shutdown. She pivoted to a bill to make the U.S. more competitive with China. And finally, she discussed Ukraine. 

Nothing on Build Back Better.

Reporters inquired about the prospects for Build Back Better at a recent press conference.

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"Let me just say ‘chunks,’ is an interesting word," mused Pelosi. "What the President calls chunks, I would hope would be a major bill going forward. It may be more limited. But it is still significant."

President Biden speaks at an event to discuss gun violence strategies at police headquarters in New York Feb. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

However, a cadre of reporters on Capitol Hill were back to staking out Manchin daily to ask where he stood on Build Back Better.

Reporters inquired with Manchin Jan. 20 if it was a "good idea" to split Build Back Better.

"I haven’t talked to anyone about what their plan is. I’m happy to talk to anyone who wants to talk," replied Manchin.

On Jan. 31, Manchin said there had "not been any formal, basic, sit-down meetings" on Build Back Better. Manchin added that lawmakers could assemble legislation that would be "balanced."

Manchin didn’t discuss Build Back Better when a gaggle of reporters gathered near his office the morning of Feb. 1. But by afternoon, it was reported that Manchin said that Build Back Better "is dead."

And so everyone was off to the races again to report that Manchin euthanized the legislation Feb. 1, even though the senator effectively terminated the bill on "Fox News Sunday" Dec. 19. And it didn’t exactly take Sherlock Holmes to find that Manchin may have actually killed the legislation earlier in the fall of 2020, if not the summer of 2020. 

So where do Democrats believe they stand with Build Back Better?

"I don’t believe Build Back Better is dead," said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. "We’re not frustrated."

"We’re fighting hard for Build Back Better," added Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. "There are lots of provisions in that bill which are very important. Many of which Sen. Manchin supports. There are conversations going on between Sen. Manchin and different senators right now."

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2022.  (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

We have written here before about the theoretical discussion in quantum mechanics of "Schrodinger’s Cat." Physicist Erwin Schrodinger suggested it was possible to place a cat in a box and the cat may both be dead and alive.

Perhaps this is the paradoxical fate of Build Back Better. Talk to Manchin, and the bill is "dead." But inquire with Jeffries and Schumer, and the legislation is very much alive.

So, Build Back Better resides in a special, legislative limbo, perhaps sharing a space with Schrodinger’s favored feline.

That said, carving up Build Back Better into "chunks" is easier said than done. The bill must adhere to special Senate budget guidelines. Sheer policy proposals won’t work if the Senate is to pass the bill via a special process called "budget reconciliation." 

The bill must contain fiscal and taxation components. Democrats elected to go the budget reconciliation route because it’s exempt from filibusters. The Senate only needs a simple majority to pass the bill. But, Democrats are stuck in a 50/50 Senate if Manchin isn’t on board. 

"This is a reconciliation bill. So when people say let’s divide it up, nah. No. They don’t understand the process," said Pelosi. 

But the Speaker added that she thought – eventually – the House and Senate could "agree on something significant. Call it a chunk if you want." 

Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D, is of the mind that the bill is toast.

"The best way to move forward with some bipartisan suggestions is to wipe the slate clean, get a new sheet of paper and sit down with people like Joe Manchin and (Sen. Kyrsten) Sinema, D-Ariz., and others who want to be serious about bipartisan solutions and move forward," Cramer told Fox Business.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., launched a preemptive strike if Democrats try to resuscitate the old bill. He says a retooled bill will only fuel inflation.

"American families are already hurting enough, and they need that bad idea to stay buried," said McConnell. 

House Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., wrote to President Biden, insisting that the Senate approve a revamped bill before March 1. That’s when the President is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union speech to Congress. Pelosi characterized that deadline as "aspirational."

"March 1 is not a deadline for one thing or another," said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md. 

So maybe this thing is tilting a little more toward the "dead" side of Schrodinger’s Cat. 

Then again, Democrats are desperate. And the clock is ticking.

"The problem honestly is that the bill the House sent to the Senate was too much of a wish list of items rather than a practical list of elements in a bigger package that could realistically pass the Senate," said Tom Kahn, former staff director of the House Budget Committee and now a distinguished fellow at American University. "The progressive wing of the Democratic party at this point just wants to get whatever they can." 

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Which of course means the bill is "alive" – until Democrats quit trying to forge an agreement. 

No one has issued a formal death certificate to Build Back Better. It may yet emerge as Build Back broken up. And no one has filled out a death certificate for Schrodinger’s cat, either. 

It is said that cats have nine lives. Perhaps Build Back better does, too. 

But, like Schrodinger’s cat, this bill could be both dead and alive – nine times.