Americans slowed their spending by more than expected in November, suggesting that the fastest inflation in decades and shortages have become a drag on the economy and that many Americans got their holiday shopping early this year.
Retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent in November from October, a significant slowdown from the 1.8 percent jump in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists had expected sales to grow by 0.8 percent.
Prices jumped 0.4 percent in November, which means that the growth in retail sales lagged inflation. That’s an indication that households may have purchased fewer items at higher prices rather. In real terms, retail sales may have contracted.
The disappointing number follows three months in which spending exceeded expectations. Many economists mistook the stronger than expected sales earlier in the year as a signal that holiday sales would be particularly strong.
Instead, it was likely a sign that many households did much of their holiday shopping early this year, hoping to avoid prices pushed up by inflation and wary of shortages due to supply chain constraints. Breitbart News analysis has warned several times that inflation and shortages appeared to be pulling shopping forward on the calendar and that sales during the traditional holiday shopping season were likely to be weaker than expected.
Here’s how the Breitbart Business Daily newsletter (subscribe here for free) explained this on November 16:
Americans went on something of a shopping spree in October. Economists had predicted retail sales would rise by one percent compared with the previous month, an acceleration of the pace of spending growth from the 0.7 percent gain reported in September. On Tuesday, however, the Department of Commerce said that spending had leaped up 1.8 percent from the previous month. What’s more, the September figure was revised up a tenth of a point.
The framing from the Associated Press of this news was typical of the establishment media’s weird reaction. “Defying inflation, Americans ramped up spending last month,” the AP headline declared. A better interpretation would be to say that Americans ramped up spending because of inflation. After all, with prices soaring on almost everything, Americans had little choice but to spend more or cut back. Spending at grocery stores, for example, rose 1.1 percent not because Americans were defying inflation but because groceries were more expensive.
This misreading of inflationary spending activity as consumer confidence leads to further mistakes. “Yet the October gain the government reported Tuesday was solid enough for most economists to anticipate holiday shopping jumping by a record amount this year,” the AP reported. It strikes us as more likely that the October gain is evidence that inflation and threatened shortages have pulled forward shopping. Waiting another month to buy Christmas gifts means higher prices and less selection. The word is out: buy early.
If we’re right about shopping being pulled forward, the traditional shopping season could be weaker than expected. Raising expectations now based on October purchases practically guarantees a disappointment when the final tally is taken.
Online sales were unchanged last month, a disappointing result for a category that has typically seen sales jump in November.
Despite higher prices, nominal sales were down or flat in several categories. Sales at department stores dropped 5.4 percent. Electronics stores sales fell 4.6 percent. Sales at furniture stores were flat in November while prices in furniture stores rose 0.3 percent for the month, likely indicating a real contraction in sales.
Restaurant sales were up one percent, beating the 0.6 percent rise in the Consumer Price Index for food away from home. Grocery and liquor store sales rose 1.3 percent, likely reflecting households’ spending on the Thanksgiving holiday and higher food prices. Food at home prices rose 0.8 percent and the price of alcohol to be consumed at home rose 0.1 percent.
Inflation is running at the highest rate in four decades, with the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index up 6.8 over the past year. There were big surges in the prices of durable goods, furniture, clothing, autos, and housing.
Year to date, retail sales have exceeded inflation. Over the 11 months of 2021, total retail and restaurant sales are 19.6 percent higher than the period in 2020. Excluding sales at gas stations, which are affected by higher gas prices, retail sales are up 18.3 percent.
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