Inflation Signal Hits New Record High in NY Fed’s Manufacturing Survey

A reading of prices of goods manufactured in New York State hit a new record high in November, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed Monday.

The figures indicate that instead of fading in the final months of the year, inflationary pressures are mounting and prices are likely to continue to rise for quite some time. High inflation is adding to doubts on the part of some Democratic lawmakers—most notably Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV)—about the wisdom of the trillions of new spending included in the Biden administration’s Build Back Better bill.

The New York Fed said its measure of prices received by manufacturers rose to 50.8, the highest ever recorded. The average score in the index over the past 20 years is 7.2.

The measure of prices paid by manufacturers for materials jumped to 83, close to the record high of 83.5 hit in May and far above the long-term average of 28.7.

Expected inflation also picked up strongly in November. The expectations gauge of selling prices hit a new record high while expectations for prices paid for materials jumped to just shy of the record hit in June.

The increases in the inflationary measures are a disappointment to those who saw an easing of pressures in September and October as a sign that inflation was proving transitory. Instead, it appears that price pressures were temporarily eased by the Delta variant surge in infections but are now on the rise once again.

The topline score for the New York Fed’s manufacturing index, the measure of general business conditions, jumped much higher than expected, registering a score of 30 compared with forecasts for 19. The new orders index also improved substantially, suggesting strengthening demand.  Employment grew at the fastest pace on record and average workweek also expanded.

Companies said they plan increased spending on technology and capital expenditures.

The ongoing supply chain disruptions and shortages showed no sign of ebbing. Delivery times lengthened and unfilled orders rose. Longer delivery times are expected in the months ahead, despite a decline in optimism for new orders, shipments, and business conditions in the months ahead.